The Edmonton Oilers faced their first taste of adversity without Leon Draisaitl in the lineup, coming out flat last game and falling 4-0 to their arch-nemesis, the Florida Panthers.

In a game where you’d expect the Oilers, who are in a tight playoff race, to face a team that’s beaten them twice in the Stanley Cup Final over the last two seasons, and hasn’t been shy about rubbing it in, with the ultimate heel, Matthew Tkachuk, even chirping Draisaitl at the Olympics — you’d think there would be plenty of bite and emotion in their last game.

Instead, the Oilers played uninspired, were guilty of overpassing in prime scoring chances, and ultimately couldn’t get a puck past Sergei Bobrovsky, who has been struggling this season.

That said, against the Panthers, the first line was Vasily Podkolzin, Connor McDavid, and Matt Savoie. They looked good in spurts, making several one-touch passes and having their fair share of scoring chances, but ultimately couldn’t bury them. The trio posted a 7-5 advantage in shots and held a 5-1 edge in high-danger scoring chances (HDCF%).

I feel Podkolzin was promoted to the top line not only because he’s been one of the Oilers’ best players since the Olympic break, and statistically has the second-best goals-for percentage (72.73 GF%) at five-on-five with the Oilers’ captain, but also to provide some extra protection for McDavid in case things got heated against the Panthers.

However, moving forward, with Draisaitl out of the lineup, I feel the best move would be to take Podkolzin off the first line and let him drive his own line in the bottom six. That said, given that the Oilers didn’t score last game, changes to the forward lines are all but inevitable. If I were making the calls, I’d try the following line combinations up front, moving forward:

This line combination is a given. With a big game coming up against a very good Tampa Bay Lightning team, the Oilers need a scoring line that they know works, and as we’ve seen lately, the Savoie-McDavid-Hyman line certainly does.

Savoie has been an excellent addition to the first line, very much in sync with the Oilers’ captain, finding him in stride on several occasions, with the pair combining for three goals over the last four games. Overall, according to Natural Stat Trick, the line of Savoie–McDavid–Hyman has produced three goals at five-on-five over their last three games together, giving up none, with scoring chances 24-14 in their favour. This line clicks and should definitely be reunited.

A second line of Jason Dickinson, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and Jack Roslovic would feature two natural top-six players in Nugent-Hopkins and Roslovic. Still, despite Dickinson being primarily defensive-minded, he has skill, can make plays, and after scoring 22 goals just two seasons ago, he likely still knows how to put the puck in the back of the net when given opportunities in prime scoring areas.

This trio played 8:33 together against the Nashville Predators on March 17, and while they didn’t score, they posted strong underlying numbers: 6-3 in scoring chances, 4-1 in high-danger chances, and a 59.37 expected goals share percentage (xGF%).

Two nights later, the trio played together for the first half of the game against the San Jose Sharks and were on for one goal for and one against, but what I really liked about this line is that they had stretches where they controlled possession in the Sharks’ zone. In one sequence, they cycled for about 25 seconds, which resulted in Roslovic faking a shot and sliding a puck over to Jake Walman, who nearly scored.

In another sequence, Roslovic had a good scoring chance off a near breakaway, and the trio held possession in the Sharks’ zone for almost 40 seconds, even drawing a penalty off one of their cycles.

Overall, the eye test showed the trio had decent chemistry in their limited time together. While Dickinson was acquired primarily to play center, I think the line would be even more effective with Nugent-Hopkins down the middle and Dickinson moving to the left wing.

If you’ve followed my writing, you know I’ve been a supporter of Vasily Podkolzin since he arrived in Oil Country, and I’d want nothing more than to see him succeed on the first line.

But with how strong he’s played this season, and after in-depth discussions with his skills coach, Ned Lukacevic, I think it’s time for Podkolzin to drive his own line, especially with Draisaitl out of the lineup. Lukacevic recently touched on that in an interview, saying:

That said, I feel that if Podkolzin played on the third line with Adam Henrique and Kasperi Kapanen, it would allow him to be the guy, and for Podkolzin, whose 16 goals at five-on-five are third on the team, it would allow him to take advantage of the matchups against other teams’ third pairings.

Also, Podkolzin and Kapanen have shown some chemistry. They’ve played 261:43 together, and the goal share is 17-7 in their favour, though of course that’s partly because their primary centreman has been Draisaitl. Still, the eye test shows that the two European players read off each other well, regardless of who is at centre.

Regarding the centreman, Henrique gets the promotion here at the 3C spot over a player like Josh Samanski because he’s more established offensively, and I feel he’s been playing better overall since the Olympic break, something that’s also supported by his underlying metrics.

Before the Olympic break, at five-on-five, he posted a 48.31 shots for percentage (SF%), 48.19 xGF%, and a 47.80 HDCF%. Yet, in the 10 games played since the break, all of those metrics have improved, posting a 54.43 SF%, 55.16 xGF%, and a 54.84 HDCF%.

On top of that, the centerman registered two assists two games ago against the Sharks, including one where he slid a pass to Podkolzin, who buried a quick snapshot past netminder Alex Nedeljkovic.

Now, the knock on Henrique is that he has slower boots; however, he would have two fast players on each of his wings who can carry the puck through the neutral zone, and their chemistry could exploit bottom pairings and be surprisingly effective.

The makeup of the fourth line depends entirely on Trent Frederic’s health. He left last game against the Panthers, and head coach Kris Knoblauch recently confirmed that he’s out with an injury and has no timeline for his return, which is a big blow considering how well he’s been playing recently.

If Frederic isn’t out of the lineup for long, the fourth line down the stretch should be Max Jones, Josh Samanski, and Frederic, and their formula is simple: get the puck deep, throw heavy hits, create momentum, and chip in on the scoresheet.

I put Samanski at center here at 4C because he looks more effective down the middle rather than on the wing. He’s rangy, fairly mobile for a big man at 6-foot-2 and 200 pounds, and defensively responsible while adding a touch of physicality.

Moreover, Jones has been a ball of energy since being recalled on March 13th. In three games, he’s thrown 15 hits, including eight against the Panthers last game, and scored the game-winning goal against the Sharks on March 17.

As mentioned, Frederic being out of the lineup is a big loss for the Oilers because he’s looked like a rejuvenated player since the Olympic break. If he’s out long term, however, and depending on how long Curtis Lazar is out as well, with the Oilers recently recalling Roby Järventie, he would slide into Frederic’s spot.

The 23-year-old is not as physical as Frederic, but at 6-foot-3 and 209 pounds, Järventie has size, protects the puck well, is skilled, has 17 goals in the AHL this season, and also has some familiarity and chemistry with Samanski from their time playing with the Bakersfield Condors.

That said, Spencer Pomoty wrote about Järventie recently, saying: “What stands out about Järventie to me is his ability to connect plays — he rarely misses a pass, rarely turns the puck over, and can glue a play together.” He added, “Järventie loves to yo-yo the defenders, pushing them back and then stopping up. He draws all eyes on him and makes one tiny pass that creates a great chance.”

Additionally, Pomoty highlighted Järventie and Samanski’s chemistry, as shown in the sequence below where they connected for a goal while playing with the Condors.

If Frederic is out long term, having an unproven player like Järventie on the fourth line down the stretch isn’t ideal, but that’s the reality of dealing with injuries.

That said, there’s a lot to like about his game. His chemistry with Samanski is reassuring, and a Jones–Samanski–Järventie fourth line could become the “Condors” line, motivated to make an impact. Though if they’re looking for more physicality, they can always call up the resident wrecking ball, Connor Clattenburg.

All in all, the Oilers have some big games ahead, with three of the next five against Pacific Division teams. With key injuries, they’ll need players to step up, and the forward lines mentioned above could give them the best chance to bank the most points.