It was nothing short of a pitiful performance, as the Oilers were outworked in every element by a team a dozen points out of a playoff spot, never mind the fact that Florida beat the Oilers in two straight Stanley Cup Finals, disrespecting them publicly every chance they get.

If they couldn’t get up to face Florida, can they do so against the Tampa Bay Lightning?

Edmonton Oilers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning

Date: Saturday, March 21, 2026
Start time: 8 p.m. MT
Location: Edmonton, Alberta
Venue: Rogers Place
Watch: CBC

The Oilers enter Saturday’s game with a 34-27-9 record and a .550 points percentage through 70 games. It’s their worst points-percentage mark through that span of a season since the 2018-19 season, when they had a 31-32-7 record and a .493 points percentage. The Oilers missed the playoffs that year, the last time before they began a five-year run of postseason berths. Through 70 games in each of those five years, the Oilers averaged a 40-24-6 record and a .616 points percentage.
One of the biggest reasons the Oilers are where they are is because of their defensive play. While their 243 goals for are one below their previous five-year average, their 236 goals against are the worst mark over that stretch, and well above their average of 214. Their +7 goal differential is their worst through 70 games since the 2018-19 season.
The last 10 games between the Oilers and Lightning, dating to the start of the 2019-20 season, have resulted in an average of 6.4 goals scored per game. Much of that offence dates to two games in the 2023-24 season, when the Bolts beat the Oilers 6-4 and 7-4. The three most recent games, dating to the start of the 2024-25 season, have been lower scoring, with Edmonton securing a 2-1 win, and the Lightning earning 4-1 and 2-1 (OT) wins.
Special teams will play a factor in tonight’s game. While the Lightning boast the 13th-ranked power play in the league at 22 per cent, they’re much better on the road (25.3 percent, ranking sixth) than at home (18.9 per cent, ranking 17th). The Oilers penalty kill, meanwhile, ranks 27th in the league as a whole at 77.1 per cent, but they’re worse at home (75.5 per cent, 27th) compared to on the road (78.6 per cent, 21st).Edmonton’s penalty kill has been better since the trade deadline, when they acquired PK specialists Jason Dickinson and Connor Murphy, with the Oilers killing off 80 per cent of their penalties. They’ve gone 90 per cent at home (one power play goal against on 10 kills), compared to 70 per cent on the road (three power play goals against on 10 kills).
Connor Ingram is set to start tonight for the Oilers, making his fourth career start against the Lightning. In three previous games, all with the Arizona Coyotes in 2022-23 and 2024-25, Ingram has posted a 2-1 record, a 2.27 goals-against average (GAA) and a .939 save percentage (SV%), along with a shutout and two quality starts.
The Lightning haven’t announced their starter, though Andrei Vasilevskiy is projected to be the starter at the time of writing. He’s been solid against the Oilers in his career, posting an 8-4 record in 12 starts, a 2.76 GAA and a .913 save percentage including six quality starts.
A few Oilers have had goal scoring success against him. Connor McDavid has scored eight goals in 10 games, Jack Roslovic six goals in 18 games, Zach Hyman has four goals in 21 games, and Adam Henrique has three goals in 11 games.

What they’re saying…

Mattias Ekholm on Edmonton’s lack of emotion against Florida…

“I’m sure there are a bunch of things, but I thought the emotion of the game is the biggest thing. We could have been a little bit more engaged early on. I felt like the first was not good enough. I thought we got going a little bit, but at the end of the day, we need to be a lot better. I don’t think there’s one point you can just point at. I think that there were multiple.”

Kris Knoblauch on the Oilers’ power play struggles (1-for-6, 16.7 per cent) without Leon Draisaitl…

“Without Leon, we haven’t had much practice time to work on it. Today we had a little bit of time, and practices in between games are tough to get a whole lot done in, but we did some puck touches and got the guys moving. We wanted to have a fast practice, a lot of puck touches and hopefully that helps us tomorrow night.”

Final word…

This is a big one for the Oilers, as they look to get over the sour taste left from their 4-0 shut out loss to the Panthers.

There is, quite simply, no more room for error from the Oilers. They enter Saturday holding second place in the Pacific Division, three points back from the leading Anaheim Ducks, one ahead of the Vegas Golden Knights, and five up on the Los Angeles Kings, who hold the second wild card spot. With 11 games left in the season, and a soft schedule for the Kings, they could make some noise trying to catch the Oilers.

Zach Laing is Oilersnation’s managing editor, and The Nation Network’s news director. He also makes up one-half of the Daily Faceoff DFS Hockey Report. He can be followed on X at @zjlaing, or reached by email at zach.laing@bettercollective.com.