The Edmonton Oilers are right back at it tonight in San Jose, and after the way things ended in Utah, there really isn’t any time left for missed opportunities and mistakes. Losing 6-5 in overtime to the Mammoth after holding three separate leads is the kind of result that should leave a bad taste in everyone’s mouth, and with only four games left before show time, there’s no room for sitting around feeling sorry for yourselves. The Oilers are still sitting in a tie with Vegas for first in the Pacific at 88 points, but with Anaheim right there at 87, and the Sharks hanging around in the Wild Card race, every point matters too much to let another one slip away.

The tricky part, of course, is that the Sharks aren’t some doormat team playing out the string. They’ve got 81 points through 76 games, have a stud in Macklin Celebrini, and they’re still close enough to a playoff spot that this game is going to be extremely important for them. The Sharks are going to be hungry, and that presents a problem.  So, even with the Oilers coming in on the second half of a back-to-back and still without Leon Draisaitl and Zach Hyman, everyone in an Oilers uniform has to step up. We need execution, not more excuses. Not with a division title sitting there for the taking. If the Oilers are serious about hanging their first division banner since 1987, then this is exactly the kind of game they have to find a way to win anyway.

When you look at the numbers between these two clubs, Edmonton still has plenty of reasons to believe this should be a matchup they can control. The Oilers have the better record, score more goals, allow fewer goals per game, generate more shots, and have the better special teams numbers, even though I fully acknowledge the power play has been junk for a few weeks. At five-on-five, the Oilers also have the edge in both Corsi For percentage and expected goals share, which suggests they should be spending more time on the right side of the puck than in their own end. On paper, the boys should have this. The problem is that paper doesn’t mean that your execution looks as shoddy as it did last night.

One of the biggest problems we’ve seen all year is how often the Oilers beat themselves in tight games, which was exactly what happened last night in Utah. The special teams needed to be better. The defensive play needed to be tighter. The goaltending wasn’t good enough. That doesn’t mean every goal against was on one guy or one pairing, but it does mean that the overall team effort with and without the puck simply wasn’t clean enough to close out a game they absolutely could have won. And against a divisional opponent on the road, those same mistakes are going to burn you all over again if they don’t get cleaned up in a hurry. Playoff team or not, the Sharks can and have burned the Oilers for mistakes.

That’s why tonight’s game comes down to how badly the Oilers want this division banner. Because the opportunity is right there. They’re tied for first. They control their own fate. They’ve got four games left to prove that the push they’ve made down the stretch is real, and that they can still win games without key pieces in the lineup. But none of that matters if they keep handing away points because of loose defensive coverage, leaky special teams, or saves that don’t get made at the moments when we need them the most. The Sharks allow 3.54 goals per game and give up nearly 30 shots a night, so there will be chances there for Edmonton. The key is making sure those opportunities aren’t wasted by a lack of urgency at the other end.

That urgency is the whole point for me, and something the boys need to crank up to the max. I want to see a team that looks pissed off about what happened in Utah. I want to see a team that understands this game has real consequences in the standings. I want to see cleaner breakouts, smarter puck management at both blue lines, and a whole lot more commitment to making life easier on Connor Ingram. The Oilers do not need a perfect game to beat the Sharks, but they do need a far more mature game than the one they gave us last night. That means less cheating for offence, sharper special teams, and no passengers anywhere in the lineup.

At this point in the season, style points don’t matter. Nobody cares how tired you are, who’s out of the lineup, or whether the schedule favours one team over another. All that matters is the result, and the Oilers need this one. The race for the Pacific is too tight, the margin for error is too small, and the opportunity in front of them is too big to waste. Last night was a point lost. Tonight has to be about taking two back.

Let’s see what the numbers say…

Podkolzin – McDavid – Savoie
Kapanen – Nugent-Hopkins – Roslovic
Dach – Dickinson – Frederic
Jones – Henrique – Lazar

Ekholm – Bouchard
Nurse – Murphy
Walman – Emberson

Ingram

With the Oilers playing last night, we won’t know what the line combos look like until we get closer to puck drop. What we do know now, though, is that Connor Ingram will be getting the start.

Chernyshov – Celebrini – Smith
Eklund – Wennberg – Sherwood
Graf – Misa – Toffoli
Goodrow – Ostapchuk – Gaudette

Orlov – Desharnais
Mukhamadullin – Ferraro
Dickinson – Leddy

Askarov

I’m expecting the Sharks to be flying tonight. They’re right on the edge of a Wild Card spot, they haven’t made the playoffs in years, and expecting anything less than their best would be a recipe for disaster.

Game Day Prediction: Oilers bounce back with a much tighter defensive effort, locking in a 5-2 win.

Obvious Game Day Prediction: We will get no fewer than three McDavid vs. Celebrini comparisons on the broadcast.

Not-So-Obvious Game Day Prediction: Jake Walman revenge goal? Why not? Would feel right.