One oft-repeated analysis early this season has been the Oilers are 0-3 because of goaltending. It is an easy but misguided claim. No doubt, the goaltending needs to be better, but the defencemen and forwards are just as guilty of poor play as the goaltending.
The Oilers are averaging a league-low one goal/game (the worst in the NHL) and have allowed 7.3 high-danger chances against/game (the third-most in the NHL).
The entire team needs to be better.
Via Clear Sight Analytics, the Oilers have allowed 22 high-danger chances in three games. Only Pittsburgh, with 34 in four games (8.5/game), and Buffalo, with 30 in four games (7.5/game), have allowed more high chances per game. Utah has averaged seven/game (28 in four games), but they’ve scored 16 goals and are 3-1. Sometimes, your offence can make up for leaky defending. Right now, the Oilers have no offence, leaky defence, and below-average goaltending.
Corey Perry is the only Oiler who has yet to be outscored 5×5. His GF-GA is 1-1, and he had a disallowed goal for borderline goalie interference. The 0-3 start has been a complete team effort, and if they are going to start winning, every player needs to improve their play. It is pointless to try and pin the bad start on the goalies or a single defenseman. And I’m perplexed when people point to the goalie’s Sv% as a major negative but then claim the forwards are doing their job, but they aren’t finishing. If the goalie’s job is to stop the puck, then the forwards’ job is to score, and if they aren’t scoring then they aren’t doing their job well enough.
Connor McDavid has been outscored 5-1 at 5×5. Leon Draisaitl is 0-3, Zach Hyman is 1-4. Even the ultra-steady Mattias Ekholm has been outscored 3-2. It is early, and you will see some crazy numbers that will even out over the year, but Derek Ryan has been on the penalty kill for 1:27 and has been on the ice for three goals against.
I can’t think of one aspect of the Oilers’ game that has been good enough through three games. Even their vaunted power play has looked anemic. They are 20% with one goal on five chances, but they have a total of four shots on goal. They rank 30th in shots/60 on the PP at 27.43. Last season they were fourth at 62.3, and they were first in 2023 and 2022. Not only have they scored often on the man advantage, but they also take more shots. In the three previous seasons, they led the NHL at 65.05 shots/60. The Rangers were second at 62.71.
They need to get back to shooting the puck. They are the most dangerous at making plays off of rebounds when the defense has to scramble.
SNAPSHOTS…
Jan 2, 2024; Edmonton, Alberta, CAN; Edmonton Oilers forward Connor McDavid (97) scores a goal during the first period on Philadelphia Flyers goaltender Carter Hart (79) at Rogers Place. Mandatory Credit: Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports
— The Oilers have started a season 0-4 twice in their first 44 seasons. They were 0-4 in 1995-96 and in McDavid’s rookie season of 2015-16. They were outscored 24-5 in 1995 and 13-5 in 2015. They will try to avoid joining that group tonight.
— Edmonton is 6-2 at home against the Flyers since McDavid entered the NHL and have outscored them 34-22.
— McDavid had 8–14-22 in eight games while Draisaitl has 6-10-16 and RNH had 7-6-13. They will need their offensive stars to break out tonight.
— Kris Knoblauch will load up his top line tonight, and I think he should. The Oilers need a win. We all know if they want to have success in the playoffs, McDavid and Draisaitl need to run their own lines, but in game four of slow-starting season, loading them up makes sense to me, especially against a Flyers team that doesn’t have a dominant second line that could be a mismatch.
— McDavid explained the lack of offence. “Our puck play has been bad all over, guys fumbling it, guys not handling it, passes in the air, passes behind guys, it is just not good enough. When you aren’t clean with the puck, it is hard to generate offence.” He was talking about himself as much as the rest of the team. We will the new lines give them some more polish?
— “Pickard and Skinner have had the 2nd and 7th worst environment in front of them. So poor team defense, but also the goalies aren’t bailing them out. They need to play better defensively and their goalie could bail them out a bit more,” Kevin Woodley from IN Goal Magazine today on Sports 1440.
— Woodley added that the Flyers have only allowed one scoring chance off the rush. They’ve been very good, albeit only two games. Edmonton has allowed nine through three games for a comparison. Can Edmonton generate more off the rush, a strength of their team, and will they be able to reduce the Flyers chances off the rush.
LINEUPS…
Oilers
Draisaitl – McDavid – Hyman
J. Skinner – Henrique – Brown
Podkolzin – RNH – Arvidsson
Janmark – Ryan – Perry
J. Skinner – Henrique – Brown
Podkolzin – RNH – Arvidsson
Janmark – Ryan – Perry
Ekholm – Bouchard
Nurse – Stecher
Kulak – Emberson
Nurse – Stecher
Kulak – Emberson
Skinner
I view the Henrique line as the second line tonight. Jeff Skinner was the Oilers best forward vs. Calgary, while Henrique and Brown have been the most consistent through three games. Henrique is historically a better 5×5 scorer than RNH, so I view them as the second line. The Oilers could really use a goal from that trio tonight.
Troy Stecher will get his chance on the second pair. Darnell Nurse has had three partners in four games. It isn’t ideal (I warned that Cody Ceci wasn’t nearly as bad as some liked to claim), as continuity matters, and Stecher might be the best option. He’s a natural right defender and has the most experience. But will he play well? And they need Nurse to be the guy who leads that pairing.
Flyers…
Tippett – Frost – Michkov
Farabee – Couturier – Brink
Foerester – Luchanko – Konecny
Laughton – Poehling – Hathaway
Farabee – Couturier – Brink
Foerester – Luchanko – Konecny
Laughton – Poehling – Hathaway
York – Sanheim
Johnson – Drysdale
Zamula – Ristolainen
Johnson – Drysdale
Zamula – Ristolainen
Ersson
Ersson stopped 24 of 26 in the Flyers season-opening 3-2 shootout victory in Vancouver. He was quite good for Philadelphia last season when he was splitting time with Carter Hart. Then Hart was suspended, and Ersson played a lot and struggled. If the Flyers aren’t forced to over play him, he should be able to post decent numbers this season.
It will be your first chance to see Matvei Michkov live. There is a lot of excitement in Philly about him. He has one assist through two games and has looked okay. The NHL is a very tough league for rookies, but it will be interesting to see how he performs. The Flyers also have young Jett Luchanko in the lineup. He didn’t play in their second game because it was a back-to-back, and John Tortorella said they plan to try and avoid putting him in BTB games right away, but wouldn’t guarantee that always happens. He was the 13th pick in the 2024 draft, and the smart money says they will eventually return him to junior. I’m a strong believer the NHL is not a place for teenagers, except the rare outlier.
TONIGHT…
GAME DAY PREDICTION: Edmonton can’t lose four in a row at home to start the season can they? They could, but they don’t and skate away with a 5-2 win.
OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Zach Hyman pick up the 400th point of his career.
NOT-SO-OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Corey Perry scores the 431st goal of his career and moves into 80th place on the all-time goal scoring list.