The Edmonton Oilers will get the biggest boost possible Monday night as the best hockey player in the world returns to their lineup.
Connor McDavid has now finished serving his three-game suspension for the cross-check heard around the world, and the Oilers captain will return to his regular spot as the team’s first-line centre. Things will look a little different, however, as the Oilers have loaded up their top line with Leon Draisaitl and Zach Hyman flanking 97.
It came as a bit of a surprise Monday morning, given how strong the Oilers’ second line of Draisaitl, Vasily Podkolzin and Viktor Arvidsson had been this season. But should we really be surprised?
That trio has hit 200 five-on-five minutes together this season, outscoring the opposition 8-7 and dominating play when on the ice. The only problem is that in their last 10 games together, playing 61 minutes, they’ve scored just two goals. Their scoring rate of 2.39 goals per hour on the season isn’t great and a 6.1 shooting percentage isn’t either, but both of those numbers have dipped in their last 10, down to 1.95 and five percent, respectively.
They can push the pace of play all day long, but the simple matter is they aren’t scoring enough. Their 2.39 goals per hour on the season is towered by a 3.45 expected goal per hour rate, and in the last 10 it’s even starker, with their 1.95 goals for per hour going against a 4.36 expected goals per hour rate. At five-on-five in the last 10 games, Draisaitl has four goals and 10 points, Podkolzin has two goals and five points and Arvidsson has one goal and four points.
Adam Henrique will get a bump up the lineup alongside Podkolzin and Arvidsson, while Ryan Nugent-Hopkins will remain as the 3C, centring Mattias Janmark and Connor Brown. That trio has played 30 dominant five-on-five minutes over the Oilers’ last three games, outscoring the opposition 1-0, while controlling 59.7 percent of the shot attempt share, 63.6 percent of the scoring chance share and 67.8 percent of the expected goal share. It’s a small sample size, of course, but worthy of some more minutes.
I can’t imagine there’s much rust for McDavid tonight, as he was still skating all of last week, spending lots of on-ice time with John Klingberg. But “insulating” him with Draisaitl and Hyman isn’t the worst move. It takes away the nuclear option in-game, as head coach Kris Knoblauch loves to spring this trio on teams when the Oilers are coming off a penalty kill, or are chasing later in the game.
The Oilers could also be looking to get Henrique going offensively. His role has changed in Edmonton versus what it was in Anaheim for him, and his points-per-game rate has been halved because of it. Despite that, at five-on-five, his goals per hour rate (0.72) is near his previous career average (.81), but it’s his assists rate (.41) that’s fallen significantly from his previous numbers (.81).
LINE COMBINATIONS
Oilers
Draisaitl – McDavid – Hyman
Podkolzin – Henrique – Arvidsson
Janmark – Nugent-Hopkins – Hyman
Perry – Philp – Kapanen
Podkolzin – Henrique – Arvidsson
Janmark – Nugent-Hopkins – Hyman
Perry – Philp – Kapanen
Ekholm – Bouchard
Nurse* – Stecher
Kulak – Emberson
Nurse* – Stecher
Kulak – Emberson
Pickard
Calvin Pickard gets the start tonight. Stuart Skinner was with his wife last night at the hospital as they await the birth of their second child. Jeff Skinner is a healthy scratch, despite scoring against the Sabres on Saturday night.
Darnell Nurse is a game-time decision tonight due to illness. He, nor John Klingberg, who was dealing doing immigration stuff, were at the morning skate, and the team ran the following pairings.
Ekholm – Bouchard
Kulak – Emberson
Regula – Stecher
Kulak – Emberson
Regula – Stecher
If Nurse can’t go, I’d imagine they’ll roll with them. Regula needs to be activated off the injured reserve to play tonight, but the Oilers have the roster space to do so with ease. He’s yet to play this year, though, and I’d imagine the Oilers would rather not throw him right into an NHL game.
Kraken
Schwartz – Beniers – Kakko
Burakovsky – Stephenson – Bjorkstrand
McCann – Wright – Tolvanen
Tanev – Stephens – Kartye
Burakovsky – Stephenson – Bjorkstrand
McCann – Wright – Tolvanen
Tanev – Stephens – Kartye
Dunn – Larsson
Oleksiak – Montour
Evans – Mahura
Oleksiak – Montour
Evans – Mahura
Daccord (unconfirmed)
Since being acquired by the Kraken, Kaapo Kakko has been nothing short of excellent, scoring four goals and 14 points in 17 games. Those goal and point totals are the same as he had in 30 games with the New York Rangers earlier this year.
TONIGHT…
Photoshop by Tom Kostiuk from Handmade by Tom
GAME DAY PREDICTION: There’s no rust for Connor McDavid, who scores a pair of points in a 5-1 Oilers win.
OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: The Oilers continue to limit opposing offences, holding the Kraken to under 25 shots on goal.
NOT-SO-OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Mattias Janmark has only scored one goal this season, an empty-netter against the Calgary Flames on Nov. 3rd. He gets his first five-on-five goal of the year tonight.
Zach Laing is Oilersnation’s associate editor, senior columnist, and The Nation Network’s news director. He also makes up one-half of the DFO DFS Report. He can be followed on Twitter, currently known as X, at @zjlaing, or reached by email at zach@thenationnetwork.com.
