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GDB 82.0: THE END

By Lowetide

Apr 9, 2016, 19:49 EDTUpdated:

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The Edmonton Oilers 2015-16 season ends tonight, with some progress shown in the win column—and much work to do this summer. How much have the Oilers improved? Enough to suggest there is some hope for the future.

The Oilers have seven more wins than a year ago (31-24) and can make it eight with a win tonight (Oil lost in OT last season in G82 to these Canucks). What do the numbers say about year over year performance?

2015-16 NUMBERS (LAST YEAR)

Goals For Per Game: 2.42 (2.35)
Goals Against Per Game: 2.95 (3.37)
PP Percentage: 17.9 (17.7)
PK Percentage: 80.9 (76.7)
Shots Per Game: 29.0 (28.4)
Shots Allowed Per Game: 31.1 (30.0)
Faceoff Percentage: 48.8 (48.2)
Save Percentage: .910 (.892)

Clearly the saves have been more common this season over last, but the defense has been more porous (shots-against are up). In terms of league average, Edmonton’s offense is badly off the pace (196 goals compared to a league average of 219) and they are still giving up too many goals. Progress? Yes. Is it enough? Not at all. The Oilers shooting percentage this season is 8.3, that is below league average (9.0).

Source

INJURIES

Years ago, I used to talk online about the impact of injuries, but after the 1,000,000th ‘apologist!’ charge I gave up trying to reason over the issue on such a wide format. I believe injuries impacted this Oilers team, some may not feel that way. Whether you do or do not, hanging a number on lost points is impossible, so it becomes a bullet point that we acknowledge but do not carry forward (because of the difficulty in measuring it).

Connor McDavid, Oscar Klefbom, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Brandon Davidson, Jordan Eberle, Benoit Pouliot, the list goes on and on. One thing that is true: When a team has very little depth, and Edmonton is terribly guilty, then injuries can have a more devastating impact.

The Anaheim Ducks are a great team and they have a strong farm team. Edmonton has neither. That is Peter Chiarelli’s dual challenge: A great NHL team and a strong farm team to feed it. Miles to go.

ROBBING FROM PETER TO PAY PAUL

This could be one crazy summer. Peter Chiarelli has exactly two areas of strength:

Left-handed defensemen
Another high draft pick

You may say ‘hey, he could trade a forward’ but the truth is Edmonton has no real area that is so strong they can afford to deal off a significant piece. RNH? Why would you do that? If anything, these months have shown us Leon Draisaitl—despite being very talented—is unready to carry around Anze Kopitar next year. Benoit Pouliot? Are you sure Patrick Maroon’s current level of performance is going to be his established level? Great danger in making that call so early.

OPTIONS

I think Peter Chiarelli will have to pull a switch, in that the player he deals (Nuge, Eberle, Pouliot, lottery pick) will need to be replaced immediately with a second deal. For instance, if he trades RNH to Minnesota for Matt Dumba, then he likely also has a backup deal for David Backes (or similar).

It is easier to do this with wingers. If Chiarelli trades Jordan Eberle for Travis Hamonic (it has been talked about so much part of me thinks it has already happened), acquiring a scoring winger via free agency is not a massive hurdle. Eberle has some nice things, though: he is a righty (stone alone on this roster) and he has chemistry with Connor McDavid. Everyone is mad at him right now because he is dusting off the pucks a-plenty (I think he has the yips), but there can be little doubt 14 could cash 35+ a year beside 97.

PROJECTED LINEUPS

Oilers lineup courtesy of DailyFaceoff.com

Canucks lineup courtesy of DailyFaceoff.com

QUICK HITS

It could be a wild ride. If a P.K. Subban comes available, hold on to
your hat. Otherwise, Peter Chiarelli has a fairly long list (backup
goalie, two defenders, RH C for 3line, at least two RWers unless they
change their mind on Yakupov) and it is 100 percent certain not all
solutions will work out. This is the curse of a team with 10 holes to
fill every summer.
For me, I hope Chiarelli shops free agency heavily (Demers, RWers, backup G,
maybe a center too) and keeps his powder dry on dealing the quality
forwards. That old Al Arbour line (get good players, keep good players)
didn’t say anything about flushing productive offensive forwards and
two-way centermen.
Chiarelli is a veteran GM. If he can find a way to address the defense without trading one of McDavid, Hall, Nuge, Eberle, Maroon, Leon, Pouliot or the first-round pick—this team could be cooking with petrol beginning fall.

WHAT THEY ARE SAYING

From CanucksArmy.com

Well, to quote Busta Rhymes and Linkin Park “Together we made it, we made it even though we had our backs up against the wall.” Yep, they’re done, well after tonights game anyways. The Canucks take on the Oilers one final time and if the Columbus’s lose or tie before the game, we can all cheer for a Canucks victory….you know, like the good old days?
Hopefully they’ve been embarrassed enough after giving up a few touchdowns this week to Alberta that the Canucks will play for pride, play for Surrey, play for the two ferry lin…..you get the picture. Tonight they have to bring #MUST and not settle for the #moralvictory. Its “GO CANUCKS GO” time.
Ok my pep talk is done.

GAME DAY PREDICTIONS

GAME DAY PREDICTION: The Oilers blue loses track of the Sedins twice!—and the road team is down 2-0 after one period. Toronto won the earlier game and Edmonton is staring at 30th place.

OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION:
Two power-play goals in the second period tied things up, and the Canucks look addled enough to lose the game. A late second-period disallowed goal drives Oilers fans crazy one last time.

NOT-SO-OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Vancouver is too much in the third period, but Talbot keeps the Oildrop in the game. Teams exchange goals in the third and head to overtime tied at three apiece. In the fourth period, Connor McDavid goes super nova and scores the most memorable goal of the season, and Oilers fans gird themselves for the long summer ahead before 97 returns.