It’s official; Leon Draisaitl is staying in Edmonton.
On Tuesday morning, it was announced that Draisaitl signed an eight-year, $112 million dollar contract extension with the Edmonton Oilers, carrying an average annual value of $14M. The contract will kick in during the 2025-26 NHL season.
For years, Draisaitl had one of the league’s best value deals, carrying a cap hit of $8.5M since the 2017-18 season. Year in and out, Draisaitl had consistently out-performed the contract, well surpassing his original expectations at the time of the deal and developing into one of the NHL’s top superstars.
Now, Draisaitl officially becomes the NHL’s highest-paid player in 2025-26. His contract is the second largest in NHL history in terms of total dollars, only behind Alex Ovechkin’s massive 13-year, $124M contract in 2008.
One overlooked aspect of this signing is the timing. By signing an extension before training camp even began, Edmonton immediately eliminates a potential distraction for the upcoming 2024-25 season; had he entered the season without an extension, it could have caused unnecessary speculation and tension all year long. Agreeing to a deal right now removes a lot of wanted pressure for both Draisaitl and the team.
However, some have various concerns about the price of the deal and what it means for the future, some of which are reasonably valid.
For instance, Draisaitl’s contract expires when he turns 37, which means he will continue to be paid $14M during his 35, 36, and 37-year-old seasons. Historical age curves could suggest a substanial decline in performance in comparison to now, but that’s something Oilers fans will happily worry about later.
Furthermore, Evan Bouchard’s contract expires after the upcoming 2024-25 season, while Connor McDavid’s deal expires after 2025-26. Bouchard is expected to gain a massive raise, potentially up to a $10M AAV, while McDavid’s new contract is projected to be even higher than Draisaitl’s $14M AAV. As such, there is a distinct possibility that Draisaitl, McDavid and Bouchard, alongside Darnell Nurse, combine to make nearly $50M in 2027-28. There are question marks regarding how successful a team can be if nearly half of their cap hit is allocated to four players.
Not to mention, some even have doubts regarding if Draisaitl is truly worth $14M in the first place.
But, although the contract is quite expensive, and could provide major cap challenges in coming years, I believe the deal is both fully deserved by Draisaitl and a good signing by Edmonton’s management.
Firstly, Draisaitl is simply an extraordinary talent.
There are plenty of exceptional players in the National Hockey League, but it’s not particularly easy to find elite, game breaking superstars. Many teams have gone countless years without coming close to drafting or acquiring one.
Even if you believe the contract is a considerable overpay, what’s the alternative? How could you ever let him walk for free? Simply put, the Oilers are not finding an adequate replacement for Draisaitl anytime soon, and so it is a significantly superior option to marginally overpay your elite superstar rather than losing them outright. Not to mention, it significantly raises the odds of Connor McDavid re-signing alongside him.
And, I strongly feel that Draisaitl’s price point is reasonable in the first place.
His results speak for themselves. In the past four seasons, Draisaitl ranks second in the league in goals, primary assists, and total points. He’s an exceptionally rare breed of player with both elite goal-scoring and passing abilities; how often can you say that a multiple 50-goal scorer is a better passer than shooter? Draisaitl is one of just fourteen players in NHL history with at least five 100-point seasons and five 40-goal seasons under his belt; the other thirteen players are all retired players, most of which spent significant time during the high scoring 1980s (stat courtesy of Jason Gregor).
What’s even more impressive is how Draisaitl manages to consistently elevate his already superb regular season performance in the playoffs. Ever since the TOI stat was tracked, Draisaitl ranks second all-time in both even strength and total playoff points per hour, accumulating a total of 108 points in 74 playoff games.
There’s a narrative — notably outside of Edmonton — that Draisaitl’s value is heavily reliant on McDavid and the power play, but it is simply not supported by the evidence. Draisaitl’s goal differential without McDavid at 5-on-5 this past season ranked at a very strong 58 percent; for comparison, 2024 Hart winner Nathan MacKinnon operated at 55 percent without Mikko Rantanen, while Art Ross winner and Hart finalist Nikita Kucherov operated at 56 percent without Brayden Point.
Not to mention, I’d argue that Draisaitl accomplished this feat without a regular bonafide top-six winger. With the Jeff Skinner and Viktor Arvidsson signings on July 1st, this is a major reason why I look forward to the 2024-25 season and see what Draisaitl can accomplish next to more talented players.
Dom Luszczyszyn’s model projects Draisaitl’s value at roughly $13.1M, while EvolvingHockey’s contract projections project him at $13.5M. A solid comparison to Draisaitl’s contract would be Evgeni Malkin’s contract; in 2014, Malkin signed an eight-year deal with a $9.5M AAV, which was roughly 14 percent of the total cap in 2014. Assuming the cap ceiling rises to around ~$92M in 2025-26, Draisaitl’s new contract would be around ~15 percent.
Is this contract a discount? Certainly not, and perhaps he could have taken one million less. But, it remains perfectly fair value for a player of his calibre in a rising cap world.
The longterm cap implications of (potentially) having so much money tied to four players could certainly be an issue, but that is not something I would personally blame Draisaitl for. The team had eight seasons of both McDavid and Draisaitl performing well above their combined $21M cap hit to win multiple cups; it’s hard to blame Draisaitl for finally signing a contract that matched his true value.
Yes, there will be challenges moving forward for Edmonton’s management. The team will have a significantly harder time constructing a superior roster in 2026 and 2027 compared to today’s when Draisaitl’s contract kicks in, alongside the expected contracts for McDavid and Bouchard. Not to mention, the Oilers are currently the oldest team in the league, and their prospect pool is rather unspectacular.
But, regardless of how expensive the contract is, the fact is that Edmonton has a higher chance of winning a cup with Leon Draisaitl as opposed to without.
All things considered, after years of outperforming one of the best value deals in the league, Draisaitl’s new contract is well earned, and signing it was a no-brainer by Edmonton’s management. Ultimately, what matters is that it extends Edmonton’s Stanley Cup contention period, however long it may be.
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