Now that the dust has settled, the anger has subsided, and the shock has worn off, I thought it’s about time that we talk about Adam Larsson. But before we get started I wanted to take a minute to say one last thing about Taylor Hall.
I’m totally kidding. I’m actually curious to see how many people read “Taylor Hall” in the opening lines and skipped right to the comments to yell at me! Let’s wait and see. Anyway…
Now that we’ve all had a week to come down from the shock of the Oilers shipping Taylor Hall to New Jersey for defenseman Adam Larsson, I wanted to talk about the guy coming in rather than the one going out. We all know how badly the Oilers needed a right shot defenseman and paying with Taylor Hall was a hefty price, but as Peter Chiarelli mentioned that was the price they had to pay. We may not agree with it, we may think the Oilers lost the trade, but, at the end of the day, what’s done is done. What many Oilers fans (myself included) haven’t talked about is that the Devils, from their perspective, also paid big to get Taylor Hall. The Devils opened up a hole for themselves on the backend that other guys on the team will have to work to fill – that’s tough to do, as we all know.
Since most of us haven’t watched Larsson play more than a handful of times I wanted to check out some of the Devils blogs to see what they thought about the player they just lost. From All About the Jersey:
The Devils didn’t get Hall for nothing. It cost them their top pairing defenseman, Adam Larsson. The 23-year old basically took over the first pairing spot on the right side next to Andy Greene over the last two seasons. He wasn’t necessarily flashy, but he could be effective in tough situations. And, boy, did Greene-Larsson face a lot of those tough situations. According to Corsica, Greene and Larsson had the highest time on ice quality of competition, or the weighted average of the time on ice percentage of their opponents. They also started in their own end of the rink around 44% of the time, also the most among Devils defensemen at 5-on-5. Who led the penalty kill on defense? You guessed it, Greene-Larsson.
This quote was no surprise to me. Everyone that has written about Larsson has talked about how he plays tough minutes – this we know. One of the knocks that I’ve read about him had to do with his fancystats, particularly Corsi. All About the Jersey had this to say in regards to a poor Corsi rating and being hemmed in their own zone.
They both got wrecked from a possession standpoint, also according to Corsica. From this past season. Larsson’s CF% (44.59%) and relative CF% (-2.45%) does not look good at all. However, those figures should not have surprised anyone since the Devils only bested Colorado in CF% last season. #5 (and #6) had to play a lot of defense in 2015-16 and did their best from getting entirely overwhelmed. To me, it is more of the fault of the team and its systems as opposed to Larsson or Greene being porous. If nothing else, Larsson showed he could handle it for twenty-two and a half minutes per game, per NHL.com. For less than $4.2 million per year on the salary cap, I think Larsson provided good value.
From the way they describe it Larsson’s poor Corsi rating may have just as much to do with it being a New Jersey thing as opposed to a specific Larsson thing. If the team you play on is 29th in the league in in CF% it’s not overly surprising that the guy that plays some of the toughest minutes on the team would also be included in that. Right? Maybe I’m just being naive, but if the whole team is getting outshot it’s not exactly surprising that a top pairing d-man is also getting outshot. Put it another way, if the forwards can’t even get the puck out of the zone then what do you really expect? It’s kind of like a reverse Oilers.
I’m sure one of the stats guys will correct me on this, but I do believe that Corsi shouldn’t be the be all end all in terms of talking about what Larsson is capable of as a player.
What about his offense (or lack thereof)?
Another knock I’ve seen against Larsson is his lack of point production. I mean, I get it. Putting up 18 points in over 1800 minutes played doesn’t exactly scream out offensive defenseman, but it’s also worth noting that Larsson got virtually no power play time whatsoever. Of the 1800+ minutes he played for New Jersey last season only 11 minutes came on the power play (ELEVEN!). Brad Hunt got more time than that last season. Is the low PP time an indictment of his offensive skills, or is the lack of opportunity also to blame? As a 16-year old, playing in the Swedish Elite League for the 4th place Skelleftea AIK, Larsson finished 2nd in scoring among defenseman with 17 points in 49 games. Two seasons ago, he put up 24 points in 64 games in New Jersey so I think it’s a little bit pre-mature to suggest that he is strictly a defensive defenseman, especially if he gets a chance at some PP time in Edmonton. If Larsson gets even a sniff of power play time is it so unreasonable to assume that his point production would also go up?
As for Larsson there is one area where he could take a big jump forward, almost any power play usage could be a boon for him. Last year in Jersey Larsson only got 11 minutes of power play time despite playing more than 1800 total minutes. On the Devils each of David Schlemko, Damon Severson andJohn Moore got more than 100 minutes on the power play. Conversely Larsson was one of two Devil defensemen to get more than 250 minutes on the penalty kill, basically sacrificing power play time to get him on the ice more in defensive situations. Edmonton had a much more even distribution of shorthanded minutes and only Sekera got more than 100 minutes on the power play. With a more even distribution of the penalty killing minutes amongst the defensemen it should not be as necessary for Larsson to play as many shorthanded minutes, thus opening the door for him to play more on the power play. In order for Larsson to get significant minutes the Oilers would need to move to frequent two defenseman usage on the top power-play unit. That probably will not happen until the young Oiler centermen get better at taking face-offs so Todd McLellan does not feel the need to give Mark Letestu almost 200 minutes of power-play time. As the best right-handed option amongst the Oilers’ defensemen this would make Larsson the natural choice for more power-play usage.
What does it all mean?
At the end of the day, Adam Larsson will be going from a very defensive minded hockey team to one that is a little bit more wide open with plenty of offensive weapons. If Adam Larsson can help get the puck out of the Oilers zone (huge problem) and into the hands of the offensive players then it’s safe to assume that his point totals will go up. More importantly, if Larsson can help keep the puck out of the Oilers’ net and get it going the other way then he is doing his job. Even though Peter Chiarelli says that Larsson isn’t a “sexy defensemen” he has an opportunity to expand on the title of defensive defenseman based on opportunity alone. Did the Oilers “win” this trade? No, I still don’t think so, but if the team starts winning more games than they lose then I don’t think anyone will care in the long run. Winning as a team will always be more important than any one individual. Now, let’s see what this kid can do.
