After wrapping up their home stand with a 4-1 win over the Red Wings, the Edmonton Oilers are back on the road for the next five games, with their first stop in Toronto for a matchup against the Maple Leafs.

I know I’m supposed to be writing about tonight’s game against the Leafs, but I’m still trying to process the trades that the Oilers made yesterday. After months of speculation and endless noise in the market, Stan Bowman pulled the trigger on a trade that sent Stuart Skinner, Brett Kulak, and a 2nd rounder to the Pittsburgh Penguins in exchange for Tristan Jarry and Sam Poulin. Some people were happy, some people were not, and everybody had an opinion. That’s not abnormal when the trades get done, but this one carries a whole different level of risk given the position, contract, and expectations. It’s not like we’re talking about a winger here. We’re talking about the team’s new goaltender for the foreseeable future.

It’s sad to me that Stuart Skinner got traded. There was something cool about having a hometown kid be the Oilers’ goalie, and in a different world, he’d be a legend in this town for bringing a Stanley Cup back to the City of Champions. There would have been a statue, moustaches everywhere, and countless babies born with his name. Instead, we’re 32 games into the season following a second consecutive trip to the finals, and we’re wondering if the goalie trade Bowman just made is an upgrade or an expensive lateral move. We’re also wondering how our other new friend Spencer Stastney will fare in Brett Kulak’s shoes on defence. Do we like a Stastney-Emberson pairing? Is that even how things will shake out? That’s a lot of change to happen the day before a five-game road trip.

But regardless of the changes or the questions about how these trades worked out, what’s done is done. It’s time to get back to work, and only the coming days, weeks, and months will reveal if this new look Oilers was worth it. A lot of folks wanted change around here, and now that we’ve got it, we’ll see what it feels like to sleep in this new bed. Despite not landing in the Six until late last night, both Tristan Jarry and Spencer Stastney will be in the lineup, and I’m eager to see how our two new friends respond in an unfamiliar environment without so much as a practice happening before playing their first game as Oilers. That’s a big ask, and we’ll see how Jarry and Stastney handle the pressure.

As for the matchup itself, the numbers suggest two teams that are arriving at this game from similar places, even if they took different routes to get here. Both the Oilers and Leafs stumbled out of the gate this season, and for a stretch, Toronto was so bad that they looked like they had never played the sport before. They spent time dead last in the Atlantic, spinning their wheels while the noise around them was nothing but black clouds and doomsday planning. Since then, the Leafs have steadied themselves, clawing back to a 14-11-5 record and posting a respectable 5-2-3 run over their last 10 games. It hasn’t always been pretty, but like Edmonton, they’ve stopped the bleeding and started to look more like the team people expected in October.

Offensively, the similarities continue. The Oilers are averaging 3.32 goals per game, the Leafs are at 3.30, with both clubs hovering around the century mark in total goals scored. One major difference I noticed is not so much about what’s being created as about how it’s being managed. Toronto has been far leakier in terms of shot volume, giving up more than 31 shots per night, but they’ve survived thanks to a .906 team save percentage at even strength and a shooting percentage north of 11%. Our beloved Oilers, on the other hand, have done a better job controlling play and limiting chances lately, but they paid for their mistakes early in the year with a sub-.900 team save percentage and a PDO that suggests there may still be some correction coming. We’ll see if Tristan Jarry can help turn that first number around.

Always with Edmonton, special teams feel like the biggest potential swing point. The Oilers‘ power play continues to operate at a borderline unfair 32.1%, while Toronto’s has lagged well behind at 14.5%. I don’t know if they miss Marner that much, or if Toronto’s PP is just running through some bad luck right now. If this game turns into a parade to the penalty box, that’s a lever the Oilers will gladly pull. At five-on-five, the underlying numbers tilt slightly toward Edmonton, with a narrow edge in Corsi and expected goals, but not by enough to suggest a mismatch. These are two teams still finding their footing, still ironing out the wrinkles left behind by a brutal opening to the 2025-26 NHL season.

The Oilers are rolling into this game with a brand-new goalie, a reworked blue line, and no time to ease into the changes. The Leafs are playing better hockey than they were a few weeks ago and are starting to look like a team playing up to its potential. Both sides are steadying themselves, but only one of them gets to leave Scotiabank Arena feeling like another step has been taken on their way out of their respective early-season holes.

Let’s see what the numbers say…

Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid – Hyman
Podkolzin – Draisaitl – Savoie
Frederic – Henrique – Janmark
Mangiapane – Lazar – Tomasek

Ekholm – Bouchard
Nurse – Regula
Stastney – Emberson

Jarry

What else is there to talk about apart from Tristan Jarry making his Oilers debut and Spencer Stastney slotting in on the third pair alongside Ty Emberson? Our two new friends only arrived in Toronto last night, and I can’t imagine what must be running through their minds as they work to get ready to play for a team they haven’t even practiced with yet. Sure, they had the morning skate, but that’s barely enough runway for introductions, let alone figuring out systems and where they need to be on the ice. Either way, the new era starts tonight in Toronto, and I’m very excited to watch our new toys suit up for the first time.

Knies – Matthews – Domi
Robertson – Tavares – Cowan
Maccelli – Roy – McMann
Lorentz – Laughton – Jarnkrok

Rielly – Ekman-Larsson
McCabe – Stecher
Benoit – Thrun

Hildeby

Look, the Leafs haven’t had a great start to the season, they’re banged up, running their third-string goaltender, and are struggling to find consistency in a way that feels all too familiar for an Oilers fan. That tells me there’s an opportunity to get some business done, but our boys will need to give max effort for as close to 60 minutes as humanly possible. Auston Matthews is starting to look more like himself, John Tavares is turning back the clock, and Matthew Knies is developing into a fantastic player for them. We’ll need Edmonton at their best to win this hockey game. Injuries and struggles are one thing, but finding a way to take advantage is something our side hasn’t exactly been stellar at so far this season.

Game Day Prediction: The Oilers pick up another win by a 5-3 final score with an empty-netter to seal the deal.

Obvious Game Day Prediction:  Troy Stecher is going to score against us, isn’t he? Yeahhhh you know it’s coming.

Not-So-Obvious Game Day Prediction: Tristan Jarry is a goalie who can move the puck. We haven’t really had that since Mike Smith was around, and that’s why no one will see a Jarry assist coming until it happens.