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Lucky 13: 20 Games In (Updated With Standings)
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Jonathan Willis
Nov 25, 2010, 09:01 EST
With one quarter of the season now in the rear view mirror, I thought it might be fun to do a quick review of how players have stacked up against our predictions, and which readers and writers have looked the most prescient in the early going.
It turns out that commenter ronaldo has jumped out to an early lead over the field, while Baron Wanye von Gretz IV leads the writers to date.
PlayerHighAverageLowActualReader(s)Writer
Ales Hemsky
90
77
59
62
Hungoverman, Steve Smith (61)
Lowetide (66)
Shawn Horcoff
84
64
36
49
Rogue, S. Oilers (49)
Willis (51)
Jordan Eberle
68
45
30
49
Jayoilfan, Robinrussia, Scorecoff Hemmercles (49)
Wanye (50)
Dustin Penner
80
64
48
45
mesh (48)
Wanye (54)
Sam Gagner
75
58
42
45
Scmidty (46)
Wanye (51)
Taylor Hall
60
43
25
37
Alaskan Pipeline, stuubs (37)
Lowetide (40)
Magnus Paajarvi
66
47
30
25
m@s f@s (30)
Lowetide (30)
Ryan Jones
 
 
 
25
 
 
Andrew Cogliano
60
39
26
16
Hungoverman (26)
Lowetide (30)
Gilbert Brule
59
44
33
12
Kyle (33)
Willis (32)
Ryan Whitney
69
42
22
70
russ99 (69)
Brownlee (48)
Kurtis Foster
54
36
16
33
BUCK75, Haboiler, mesh (33)
baggedmilk (34)
Theo Peckham
 
 
 
21
 
 
Tom Gilbert
56
41
28
21
Chris. S.Oilers (28)
baggedmilk (35)
Ladislav Smid
34
18
8
12
m@s f@s, mesh, toprightcorner (12)
Lowetide (10)
Since nobody had much faith in either Ryan Jones or Theo Peckham to show up on these lists, what we actually have here are the top 10 Oilers forwards and top five Oilers defencemen.
Five players have the distinct achievement of being on pace for fewer points than the most pessimistic fan on the site predicted them to: Dustin Penner, Tom Gilbert, and Magnus Paajarvi all missed by a relatively modest margin, while Andrew Cogliano is out by 10 points to date and Gilbert Brule has the widest gap in terms of performance vs. expectation, as he’s currently on pace for 12 points and the most pessimistic fan picked 33.
Had the site’s last commenter simply gone one point lower than the most pessimistic choice for each player, he’d be closest to the current pace of all these players. Given that we haven’t even seen significant injuries yet, that’s remarkable.

Standings

Given the requests I’ve had, here are some preliminary standings, based on projected points after 20 games. Obviously, there’s a lot of hockey left to be played, so don’t take these too seriously.  Writers are in bold, and scoring rules can be found here.
RankEntrantSCORE
1
ronaldo
-167
2
Scorecoff Hemmercules
-174
3
Hungoverman
-176
4
Steve Smith
-177
5
Wanye
-181
6
Motel
-182
7
GospelofJon
-185
8
Jonathan Willis
-185
9
Jen
-187
10
RossCreekNation
-190
11
oilderrick
-191
12
AZOilfan
-193
13
b.oilers
-193
14
Offthebandwagon
-195
15
OB1 – Team Hall
-195
16
BobbyChamp
-195
17
Schmidty
-196
18
BMcEachern
-197
19
Ducey
-198
20
Kodiak
-198
21
Lowetide
-199
22
mesh
-200
23
tiderip
-202
24
S.Oilers
-202
25
greenlightning86
-203
26
book¡e
-205
27
Pajamah
-206
28
BUCK75
-206
29
D
-208
30
baggedmilk
-209
31
cara
-209
32
Wiseguy
-210
33
I’m a Scientist!
-210
34
Oilfan64
-210
35
Jason Gregor
-210
36
ubermiguel
-212
37
Bucky9
-212
38
Rogue
-212
39
The Boy
-212
40
DougWeightProblem
-212
41
Robin Brownlee
-213
42
Crash
-215
43
cableguy
-216
44
Vanguard
-217
45
Mojo
-218
46
SLAM
-219
47
CSimpson18
-221
48
Sean F
-221
49
Bash
-222
50
borisnikov
-222
51
OvenChicken8
-222
52
captainnapalm
-222
53
Haboiler
-222
54
OilerBill
-223
55
HC
-223
56
Jeremy
-224
57
Dyckster
-225
58
MrMackey
-226
59
Chris.
-226
60
Polar94
-227
61
BurkeTheTurd
-227
62
Positivebrontefan
-227
63
Heavyd
-228
64
duuby
-230
65
Alaskan Pipeline
-231
66
Quicksilver ballet
-231
67
AussieOil
-233
68
Npanciroli
-233
69
Trenton L
-234
70
James H
-235
71
Scarlett
-237
72
Stone Hands McOsta
-238
73
Tracie
-238
74
Henry
-239
75
toprightcorner
-243
76
rindog
-247
77
madjam
-248
78
rubbertrout
-248
79
The Ramburglar
-249
80
Soft Hands McSteeley
-253
81
Robinrussia
-254
82
SportsDad
-256
83
Kyle
-259
84
Travis Dakin
-259
85
Wiggleswag
-260
86
Ender
-261
87
Oilcruzer
-262
88
jayoilfan
-263
89
tricksnard
-266
90
stuubs
-268
91
Miami Dolphins
-269
92
Bucknuck
-271
93
dohfOs
-276
94
m@s f@s
-279
95
DimebagDave
-286
96
Fee Logolin
-300
97
LuckyLex
-305
98
russ99
-314
99
treevojo
-329