Good morning, everyone, and a happy Monday to you all. As always, I’ve got a brand new mailbag ready to go after taking your questions and sending them to the crew for their take. This week, we’re discussing why the Oilers keep fumbling their way through October, goal differentials, goaltending numbers, and more. If you’ve got a question you’d like to ask, email it to me at baggedmilk@oilersnation.com or on Twitter at @jsbmbaggedmilk, and I’ll get to you as soon as I can.

I don’t have one. Each year it has been different reasons. This year they would play well for 40 or 50 minutes of a game, but then had some glaring giveaways that cost them. They talked openly about having a good start this year, basically since the first Captain Skate in September, but it didn’t happen. It is a bit odd.

I just think that the recent runs to the Stanley Cup Final make it harder for the team to get up for these early-season games. Other teams start the year fresher and more motivated and that’s just not the case in Edmonton. Draisaitl even said something about this earlier in the week. They know when they need to be playing their best.

You go from the most intense games you’ll ever play to playing regular season hockey again. It’s challenging to get yourself back into the regular season groove.

I think the shortened summers and extended Cup runs have something to do with it, but I also don’t like using last season as an excuse. Two points matter just as much in October as they do in March, and I wish there were some way we could get that through to everyone. I guess we’ll have to see what happens.

Through 13 games they sit 6^th in points and 8^th in P%. It is how they are in the sense that they are a playoff team. And they start slow most seasons, that is their identity the past few years, and while it isn’t a great one, they’ve proven they improve as the season goes. I’ve seen nothing to suggest they aren’t a true contender again this year. I’ve learned that how you play in October really has no impact on how you look come playoff time. The Oilers can play better and be more consistent, and I expect them to as the season progresses.

If they haven’t started bringing their ‘A’ game more consistently by Christmas time, then I’ll start to be worried. But until then, I think we should be careful to jump to conclusions when it comes to this team. They’ve shown us time and time again that they get better as the year goes on.

Never. It’s October hockey. The Pittsburgh Penguins, Seattle Kraken, and Philadelphia Flyers currently hold playoff spots, and they will likely miss out on the postseason when April arrives. Just relax, the Oilers are a good team that, even after a “slow start”, is one win from being tied for first in the division.

I think I’d be more nervous about it if the Oilers didn’t do the exact same thing each of the last two years. This is a team that wants to skip ahead to the playoffs, and while it drives me nuts that it takes a while to get going, I’m not going to worry unless the trend keeps dragging on. Ask me again in a month.

I think he is. His clam demeanour meshes well with the team. He never embarrasses a player, publicly or with a long benching. Missing a few shifts will get their attention, especially when it is a player who plays a lot of minutes.

I think it’s hard to balance disciplining your star players with trying to win games and also letting them have the confidence to take some risks. Players like Evan Bouchard are better off taking high-reward risks because they have the ability to make plays that others can’t. Sometimes that means they turn over the puck, but that’s something you have to live with. In the case of Nurse, he made two boneheaded plays and Knoblauch decided that a message needed to be sent and I have no problem with that.

It’s not about being strict. That’s how you can lose your room.

Do I think he should’ve bench Bouchard? Yes, I would have benched him and given him the power play at the end to prove himself. At the end of the day, he’s your best offensive defenceman and you’re down in the game. We will get an accurate idea of his further “punishments” as the games progress.

If you’re going to sit guys for mistakes, then you have to treat everyone the same way. Consistency matters.

I’ll go with McDavid and Draisaitl being two of only eight forwards in the NHL who have played at least 15 min of PK time, but haven’t been on for one goal against. Combine that with the fact they are leading all Oilers forwards in PK time at this point is a bit surprising to me.

Connor McDavid has looked a little flat, and that’s surprised me. I really want him to have a strong November. The blueline struggling is a little surprising, but it’s been better since Walman returned so I’m not overly concerned there. One positive surprise for me is Matt Savoie. He’s looked like a very strong, well-rounded NHLer.

How sluggish Connor McDavid has played. I thought we were going to get a player who would be generating endless scoring opportunities for himself, and we haven’t seen that.

Maybe I’m the sucker here, but I never expected us to be having the same conversations for the third October in a row. Slow starts, goaltending, scoring woes… It almost feels like Groundhog Day, and we’re all Bill Murray trying to get through it.

Skinner ranks 17th in SV% among starters, and he is 10th in GAA. Pickard has had a rough start with an .846sv% and a 3.50 GAA, but he’s only played four games. If you are looking at Sv% then you should also look at what the team’s expected Sv% is, and right now the Oilers are in the bottom third of the league, meaning they haven’t given their goalies a great environment. They rank anywhere from 8th to 11th worst. So the team defence needs to improve as well, which I expect it will.

The Oilers rank between 12-16th in goals against above expected, so they are average or slightly above average. You have to look beyond Sv% to see how the goalies are doing. No doubt they can make a few more saves, but the team defence also needs to improve. Stan Bowman has four months to evaluate his goalies and make a decision on which two will be in Edmonton after the trade deadline.

We’re probably staring down the same goalie problem. Skinner has shown some high end flashes, and I’m still a Skinner believer, but I think we’ll see the ‘Ingram for Pickard’ swap by Christmas time.

Save percentage is a terrible stat.

Stuart Skinner has been decent to start the season, allowing more than three goals only once in his eight starts. He’s given the Oilers more good or okay starts than bad. His goals against average is 24th in the NHL, with many players above him playing only once or twice.

Calvin Pickard has worried me. I don’t think he’s given the Oilers enough in three of his four starts.

Still early days, and things can definitely change, but it’s certainly concerning. That said, I also think the skaters in front of the goalies aren’t exactly making things easier.

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