The Edmonton Oilers were able to hold serve on home ice with a pair of exciting come-from-behind victories and will now look to steal the first road win from either side as the series shifts back to Crypto.com Arena. The betting prices for Game 5 are the same as the last matchup in L.A., as the Los Angeles Kings are priced at -125 to win, while the total remains at 6.5.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes and outline my favourite betting angles below.

Neither of the Oilers’ two wins on home ice were entirely convincing, as early on in both matchups the Kings still looked to be the sharper side tactically and were able to expose the Oilers’ shaky goaltending and defensive play to some extent. However, in both matchups, the Oilers were able to pour it on late before eventually getting the goals they desperately needed.

Evan Bouchard’s Jekyll-and-Hyde play continues to be a massive storyline in this series. He made some more costly mistakes in Games 3 and 4, resulting in goals against; however, he accounted for those mistakes by pouring in 4 critical goals at the other end of the ice.

It is certainly fair to say that Bouchard’s mistakes would not be as commonly criticized if the Oilers goaltenders were making more saves or if his overall body language on the ice did not come off as aloof. He’s still making a ton of plays that help drive play in the right direction overall, which is the main reason he continues to have strong underlying numbers despite the idea that he is a liability.

The Oilers separated Bouchard and Darnell Nurse for the third period of Game 4, and while game script surely was somewhat of a factor, the results were tremendous. Bouchard was drastically more effective in his minutes with Jake Walman on Sunday, and it would make sense to see that duo stay together in this matchup, even if they were potentially only united because of the trailing scoreline.

Ahead of both games in Edmonton, we outlined how the Oilers’ power play was one obvious way that they could start finding better results in this series, and they have broken through with four power-play goals over the last two games.

An effectively run power play will win out versus a good penalty kill if it can avoid mistakes that let the PK trigger and earn clears and be crisp with zone entries to get multiple setups. Over the last three postseasons the Oilers’ power play has been entirely dominant, and considering the personnel on a five-man unit that has spent a wealth of time together, that’s no surprise.

The Kings have been potent when the Oilers make mistakes in the neutral zone and have generated plenty of chances going the other way when they do get going in transition. Bouchard’s mistakes are getting all the headlines, but overall the Oilers’ ability to defend rush chances right now is a concern that is not being masked by their goaltenders.

At the time of writing, it’s unclear if it will be Stuart Skinner or Calvin Pickard starting in this matchup. Pickard has earned back-to-back wins, which might make Knoblauch reluctant to make a change, but he’s certainly not been dominant to the point where it would be crazy to see the Oilers go back to their number-one guy in Skinner.

It would be fair to say that the Kings are a little unlucky to be tied at two in this series, when they have structurally looked to be the better side and have carried more of the overall play. As the Kings should know full well by now, though, if you get on the back foot versus an Oilers side with two of the game’s very best offensive stars for too long, displaying a strong process for 40 minutes of a game means next to nothing.

Kings head coach Jim Hiller snapped when asked how his team can better protect their leads, but it was a pretty fair question considering the way the last two games have gone.

It’s hard to close out this Oilers roster, as you will be facing McDavid, Draisaitl, and Bouchard nearly half the time in the third period in games that you have a lead. However, sitting back and trying to absorb pressure with a lead, as Hiller’s side has done in this series, is a specifically ineffective strategy versus the Oilers, not just because of Edmonton’s offensive upside, but because it takes away the Kings’ ability to force Edmonton’s defensive core into making the kind of costly mistakes we have seen early on in all four games.

The extent to which Hiller has shortened his bench late in games also hasn’t made much sense. The Kings proved to have strong defensive depth in the regular season, but even with Game 4 reaching overtime, the Kings only gave meaningful minutes to four skaters.

From an overall perspective, the Kings have looked to be the sharper side in this series and obviously have to feel extremely frustrated to be returning home at 2-2. When playing on the front foot, they continue to expose the Oilers’ shaky defensive play, and Edmonton’s goaltenders continue to struggle to make the saves they are supposed to, while every true high-quality chance also seems to get in the Oilers’ net.

Hiller’s reluctance to take any accountability for his debatable tactics and usage in Game 4 is concerning from a Kings perspective, and is notable from a handicapping perspective. My lean in terms of a side is with the Kings because they look to be the more well-rounded team right now, but it seems reasonable to think they will continue to struggle to close out wins in this series.

There doesn’t seem to be much reason to stray away from backing this game to feature over 6.5 goals, after we hit that bet once again in Game 4. Obviously it took some luck in the form of Bouchard’s game-tying goal to hit that bet, but the causations to the lofty offensive outputs in this series do not seem likely to change anytime soon, and I see value backing the game to feature over 6.5 goals once again at +100.