When these two teams met on Nov. 21, I was eager to back the Wild as road underdogs. Minnesota was without Mats Zuccarello, but they had just welcomed Jonas Brodin back, and I felt they were undervalued. I was right. Since then, though, Brodin returned to injured reserve a few games later, Joel Eriksson Ek landed on IR, and Zuccarello still hasn’t come back. Brodin has resumed skating, but his availability for Tuesday’s game remains unclear.

Of course, star forward Kirill Kaprizov is still on fire, but he point is, things have changed in a few weeks. Minnesota isn’t playing poorly—they’re still top-10 in five-on-five expected goal share, and no team has allowed fewer goals per 60 minutes. But over their last 10 games, their wins have mostly come against weaker opponents. Outside of beating Edmonton, they’ve taken down Buffalo, Chicago, Anaheim, St. Louis, Nashville, and Vancouver. The closer their competition is to the playoff picture, the worse the outcomes seem to be.

Minnesota has dominated Edmonton, winning eight of the last 10 matchups during Kirill Kaprizov’s career. They’re also 18-7 against the Oilers in the Connor McDavid era. Even so, with the Wild’s current injuries, Tuesday doesn’t feel like the best spot to back them outright. Their identity remains unclear, having only faced seven playoff teams so far. This could be the game where Edmonton gets some revenge, and the Wild’s odds just aren’t appealing enough to risk being on the wrong side of that—unlike last time.

Handicapping the Oilers (16-12 SU, 10-18 ATS, 11-16-1 O/U)

Let’s start with goaltending. While the criticism was fair earlier this season, it’s time to give Stuart Skinner some credit. He’s allowed two or fewer goals in six of his last seven games after giving up three or more in 10 of his first 12. Granted, the Wild were the one team that managed to light him up during that stretch, scoring five goals on 26 shots. But outside of that game, Skinner has been rock solid—and so has the team.

If not for an unlucky regulation loss in Vegas, Edmonton would have a seven-game win streak or at least a seven-game point streak. Still, they’ve won 10 of 15 games since McDavid returned from his three-game absence. The Oilers have controlled even-strength expected goals and shot attempts in all but three of those games, with their effort against the Wild standing out as one of their worst performances. Since then, however, Edmonton has dominated some strong opponents. Based on recent schedules, the Oilers should be far more prepared for the Wild than the Wild are for the Oilers.

In the first month of the season, Edmonton ranked 22nd in goals for and 21st in goals against per 60 minutes in all situations. Meanwhile, Minnesota was thriving, ranking fourth in goals against and seventh in goals for. Over the past month, however, things have been somewhat reversed. The Oilers now sit sixth in goals for and fourth in goals against, while the Wild have dropped to 17th in goals for but still hold steady at second in goals against.

Edmonton isn’t back to full strength yet, but Zach Hyman has been productive since his return, and Viktor Arvidsson is back on the ice, working his way toward a full recovery. In contrast, the Wild appear to be wearing down, with injuries taking a toll and their offense struggling to keep pace. Simply put, the Oilers are trending upward, while the Wild are starting to lose some steam.

Best Bet for Oilers vs. Wild

Connor McDavid Over 3.5 Shots On Goal (+105) at Sports Interaction

Minnesota and Edmonton rank first and second in high-danger shots against, according to Natural Stat Trick, so both teams excel at limiting the opposition’s quality scoring chances. However, Edmonton ranks third in shots against per 60 minutes, while the Wild sit at 18th. Despite being a strong defensive team, Minnesota approaches it a bit differently than most clubs.

That’s why I find it surprising that McDavid’s shots-on-goal prop (over/under 3.5) is listed at +105 odds. McDavid has recorded at least four shots on goal in six of his last nine games against Minnesota and has done so in 15 of 25 games this season, including 10 of his last 14. I might sound like a broken record—this has been one of my favorite player props—but it’s hitting at a 60% rate, and sportsbooks are still pricing it as if it’s a coin flip. That said, shop around for the best odds.

McDavid has fired off 60 shots in 15 games since returning from injury. That’s 15 more than the next-closest player, Leon Draisaitl, and nearly double the totals of Evan Bouchard and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, who each have 36.

Oilers vs. Wild Odds

Handicapping the Wild (19-9 SU, 15-13 ATS, 12-14-2 O/U)

Handicapping the Oilers (16-12 SU, 10-18 ATS, 11-16-1 O/U)

Best Bet for Oilers vs. Wild

Connor McDavid Over 3.5 Shots On Goal (+105) at Sports Interaction

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