Join Daily Faceoff’s Andy MacNeil as he handicaps <a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/1KTJ_A_P-AI32gVcexX90MdNzHYLRSAKZuXyBZyeEp3w/edit?tab=t.0">Thursday’s matchup</a> between the Minnesota Wild and Edmonton Oilers. 
<h2>Wild vs. Oilers Odds</h2>
<ul>
<li style="font-weight: 400;">Minnesota Wild Moneyline: +135</li>
<li style="font-weight: 400;">Edmonton Oilers Moneyline: -160</li>
<li style="font-weight: 400;">Puck Line: Wild +1.5 (+185), Oilers -1.5 (-225)</li>
<li style="font-weight: 400;">Game Total: 6.5 (Over -105, Under -115)</li>
</ul>
Game odds courtesy of Sports Interaction.
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<h2>Handicapping the Wild (12-6 SU, 12-6 ATS, 8-8-2 O/U)</h2>
<a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations">Minnesota</a> has shown significant improvement since last season&#8217;s 10th-place finish, earning more points than all but three teams this season. The Wild have benefited from contributions throughout their lineup, but their strong start is largely due to two key players: star forward Kirill Kaprizov and starting goaltender Filip Gustavsson.
Kaprizov, who has flirted with MVP status in the past, is just one point behind Nathan MacKinnon for the league lead, making him the favorite (+275) to win the award this season. With 33 points (13 goals, 20 assists) in 18 games, Kaprizov is on pace to shatter his career highs in goals (47) and points (108). While he&#8217;ll be without longtime linemate <a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/wild-place-mats-zuccarello-on-injured-reserve-with-lower-body-injury">Mats Zuccarello</a> for three to four weeks, Kaprizov has already scored five points (four goals) on12 shots on goal in three games since Zuccarello&#8217;s injury, showing no signs of slowing down. The Wild have also welcomed back two key players, Joel Eriksson Ek and Jonas Brodin, from injury.
Meanwhile, Gustavsson has posted a stellar .926 save percentage, with only four goaltenders performing better. The 26-year-old has allowed two or fewer goals in 11 of his 14 starts, earning Vezina Trophy buzz. However, the betting market remains cautious, with Gustavsson (+2500) trailing seven other goaltenders in odds. This hesitation likely stems from Minnesota&#8217;s elite defensive play, as they rank first in expected goals against and seventh in shots against per 60 minutes. In other words, Gustavsson benefits from stronger team defense than many of his peers.
This game marks Marc-Andre Fleury’s final appearance in Edmonton. The 39-year-old, set to retire at the end of the season, boasts a 16-6-1 record, a 2.39 goals-against average, and a .922 save percentage in 23 career games against the Oilers. Fleury has started just four games this season—three on the road—with his last start coming on Nov. 7. It’s likely the future Hall of Famer will get at least one start in Alberta, as the Wild face the Flames in Calgary on Saturday.
<h2>Handicapping the Oilers (10-10 SU, 6-14 ATS, 7-12-1 O/U)</h2>
The Oilers rebounded from an embarrassing 3-0 shutout loss in Montreal with a <a href="https://oilersnation.com/news/better-lait-than-never-evan-bouchards-struggles-goal-connor-mcdavids-heater-and-stuart-skinner">decisive 5-2 victory over the Senators in Ottawa</a>. Back in Edmonton, they’ll play two home games before heading out on the road again. <a href="https://oilersnation.com/news/the-day-after-20-0-vasily-podkolzin-pays-off-in-elevation-to-oilers-top-line">Captain Connor McDavid led the charge</a> against Ottawa with two goals and an assist, while Leon Draisaitl and Evan Bouchard each recorded a goal and two assists. Vasily Podkolzin also made an impact, tallying his first multi-point game of the season. It was the third time Edmonton scored four goals or more in their last 10 games, after not doing so in any of their first 10 outings. 
The Oilers have averaged 3.3 goals per game during their last 10 games, compared to just 2.2 goals per game through the first 10 games, and 3.43 goals per game since McDavid returned to the lineup on Nov. 6. As a result, Edmonton’s goal share at five-on-five has started to resemble their expected goal share. The Oilers controlled 53.12 percent of the expected goals at five-on-five in their first 10 games, but controlled only 37.44 percent of the goals. However, in their last 10 games, they have controlled 54.76 percent of the expected goals and scored 57.39 percent of the five-on-five goals.
However, the Oilers are facing some injury and illness. Defenseman Darnell Nurse is expected to be out a week or more and, on Thursday morning, Edmonton sent down Josh Brown and recalled forward Drake Caggiula. According to <a href="https://x.com/JasonGregor/status/1859637129200181317">Jason Gregor</a>, this is due to health concerns for Viktor Arvidsson, who has missed the past four games with an undisclosed injury, and Zach Hyman, who missed the third period of Tuesday’s game versus the Senators.
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<h2>Best Bet for Wild vs. Oilers</h2>
<h3>Minnesota Wild Moneyline (+135)</h3>
Sorry, Oilers fans, but I’m thinking with my wallet, not my heart. While I’d love to see Edmonton dominate the Wild on Thursday, recent history and Minnesota&#8217;s current form suggest otherwise. The Wild are 8-2 straight up against Edmonton in their last 10 games and 17-7 in the Connor McDavid era, including an 8-4 record at Rogers Place. Right now, they rank third in expected goals percentage (all situations) and lead the league in five-on-five goal share. On top of that, I don’t think the betting market has fully accounted for Hyman potentially missing the game.

Join Daily Faceoff’s Andy MacNeil as he handicaps <a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/1KTJ_A_P-AI32gVcexX90MdNzHYLRSAKZuXyBZyeEp3w/edit?tab=t.0">Thursday’s matchup</a> between the Minnesota Wild and Edmonton Oilers. 
<h2>Wild vs. Oilers Odds</h2>
<ul>
 	<li style="font-weight: 400;">Minnesota Wild Moneyline: +135</li>
 	<li style="font-weight: 400;">Edmonton Oilers Moneyline: -160</li>
 	<li style="font-weight: 400;">Puck Line: Wild +1.5 (+185), Oilers -1.5 (-225)</li>
 	<li style="font-weight: 400;">Game Total: 6.5 (Over -105, Under -115)</li>
</ul>
Game odds courtesy of Sports Interaction.
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<h2>Handicapping the Wild (12-6 SU, 12-6 ATS, 8-8-2 O/U)</h2>
<a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/minnesota-wild/line-combinations">Minnesota</a> has shown significant improvement since last season's 10th-place finish, earning more points than all but three teams this season. The Wild have benefited from contributions throughout their lineup, but their strong start is largely due to two key players: star forward Kirill Kaprizov and starting goaltender Filip Gustavsson.

Kaprizov, who has flirted with MVP status in the past, is just one point behind Nathan MacKinnon for the league lead, making him the favorite (+275) to win the award this season. With 33 points (13 goals, 20 assists) in 18 games, Kaprizov is on pace to shatter his career highs in goals (47) and points (108). While he'll be without longtime linemate <a href="https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/wild-place-mats-zuccarello-on-injured-reserve-with-lower-body-injury">Mats Zuccarello</a> for three to four weeks, Kaprizov has already scored five points (four goals) on12 shots on goal in three games since Zuccarello's injury, showing no signs of slowing down. The Wild have also welcomed back two key players, Joel Eriksson Ek and Jonas Brodin, from injury.

Meanwhile, Gustavsson has posted a stellar .926 save percentage, with only four goaltenders performing better. The 26-year-old has allowed two or fewer goals in 11 of his 14 starts, earning Vezina Trophy buzz. However, the betting market remains cautious, with Gustavsson (+2500) trailing seven other goaltenders in odds. This hesitation likely stems from Minnesota's elite defensive play, as they rank first in expected goals against and seventh in shots against per 60 minutes. In other words, Gustavsson benefits from stronger team defense than many of his peers.

This game marks Marc-Andre Fleury’s final appearance in Edmonton. The 39-year-old, set to retire at the end of the season, boasts a 16-6-1 record, a 2.39 goals-against average, and a .922 save percentage in 23 career games against the Oilers. Fleury has started just four games this season—three on the road—with his last start coming on Nov. 7. It’s likely the future Hall of Famer will get at least one start in Alberta, as the Wild face the Flames in Calgary on Saturday.
<h2>Handicapping the Oilers (10-10 SU, 6-14 ATS, 7-12-1 O/U)</h2>
The Oilers rebounded from an embarrassing 3-0 shutout loss in Montreal with a <a href="https://oilersnation.com/news/better-lait-than-never-evan-bouchards-struggles-goal-connor-mcdavids-heater-and-stuart-skinner">decisive 5-2 victory over the Senators in Ottawa</a>. Back in Edmonton, they’ll play two home games before heading out on the road again. <a href="https://oilersnation.com/news/the-day-after-20-0-vasily-podkolzin-pays-off-in-elevation-to-oilers-top-line">Captain Connor McDavid led the charge</a> against Ottawa with two goals and an assist, while Leon Draisaitl and Evan Bouchard each recorded a goal and two assists. Vasily Podkolzin also made an impact, tallying his first multi-point game of the season. It was the third time Edmonton scored four goals or more in their last 10 games, after not doing so in any of their first 10 outings. 

The Oilers have averaged 3.3 goals per game during their last 10 games, compared to just 2.2 goals per game through the first 10 games, and 3.43 goals per game since McDavid returned to the lineup on Nov. 6. As a result, Edmonton’s goal share at five-on-five has started to resemble their expected goal share. The Oilers controlled 53.12 percent of the expected goals at five-on-five in their first 10 games, but controlled only 37.44 percent of the goals. However, in their last 10 games, they have controlled 54.76 percent of the expected goals and scored 57.39 percent of the five-on-five goals.

However, the Oilers are facing some injury and illness. Defenseman Darnell Nurse is expected to be out a week or more and, on Thursday morning, Edmonton sent down Josh Brown and recalled forward Drake Caggiula. According to <a href="https://x.com/JasonGregor/status/1859637129200181317">Jason Gregor</a>, this is due to health concerns for Viktor Arvidsson, who has missed the past four games with an undisclosed injury, and Zach Hyman, who missed the third period of Tuesday’s game versus the Senators.
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<h2>Best Bet for Wild vs. Oilers</h2>
<h3>Minnesota Wild Moneyline (+135)</h3>
Sorry, Oilers fans, but I’m thinking with my wallet, not my heart. While I’d love to see Edmonton dominate the Wild on Thursday, recent history and Minnesota's current form suggest otherwise. The Wild are 8-2 straight up against Edmonton in their last 10 games and 17-7 in the Connor McDavid era, including an 8-4 record at Rogers Place. Right now, they rank third in expected goals percentage (all situations) and lead the league in five-on-five goal share. On top of that, I don’t think the betting market has fully accounted for Hyman potentially missing the game.

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