Join Daily Faceoff’s Andy MacNeil as he handicaps Saturday’s matchup between the St. Louis Blues and Edmonton Oilers.
Blues vs. Oilers Odds
- St. Louis Blues Moneyline: +225
- Edmonton Oilers Moneyline: -275
- Puck Line: Blues +1.5 (-110), Oilers -1.5 (-110)
- Game Total: 6.5 (Over -130, Under +110)
Game odds courtesy of Sports Interaction.
Handicapping the Blues (13-14 SU, 16-11 ATS, 10-14-3 O/U)
Before the coaching change, St. Louis hadn’t won four games in a five-game stretch. Under Jim Montgomery, the Blues are now 4-0-1, with four straight road wins against the Rangers, Devils, Jets, and Flames, plus an OT loss at home to the Flyers. Per Evolving Hockey, the Blues have improved their five-on-five expected goal share by about five percent during this stretch, with only one team controlling a larger share of goals.
While St. Louis is scoring 0.5 more goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five under Montgomery compared to Drew Bannister, goaltending has been the real difference-maker. The Blues still rank among the bottom 10 teams in shots and expected goals against, but Jordan Binnington and Joel Hofer have made up for it.
Binnington ranks fourth in goals saved above expected over his last five games, with a .936 save percentage and a 1.96 goals-against average. Hofer, meanwhile, has allowed just three goals in his two starts against New York and Winnipeg, posting a 1.50 goals-against average and a .942 save percentage.
Former Oiler Dylan Holloway has also been a standout since joining the Blues. He’s been their most productive forward under Montgomery, with four goals and four assists in his last five games, thriving on the second line with Brayden Schenn and Jordan Kyrou. The 23-year-old has nearly doubled his previous career highs in goals, assists, and points.
Philip Broberg has also thrived with the Blues. Despite missing 12 games due to injury, the 2019 No. 8 pick has set career highs this season with 2 goals, 10 assists, and 12 points while playing a top-four defensive role.
Handicapping the Oilers (14-12 SU, 9-17 ATS, 11-14-1 O/U)
Edmonton enters this matchup having won four of its last five games, with victories over the Rangers, Avalanche, Blue Jackets, and Utah Hockey Club. Their lone setback was a shutout loss to the Golden Knights in Vegas, though it was a strong effort that could have yielded a better result. The Oilers bounced back with a dominant performance Thursday against Columbus.
Connor McDavid led the way with four assists, including primary setups on three of Edmonton’s six goals. He assisted on both of Leon Draisaitl’s goals and set up Zach Hyman twice in Hyman’s first game back after missing five. Five other skaters registered two points, including Jeff Skinner, who notched his first multipoint game of the season.
Per Evolving Hockey, Edmonton has controlled more than 60 percent of the expected goals in all situations over its last five games. Their shot selection has also improved. While the Oilers are taking fewer shots overall, they’re generating more expected goals. Since McDavid’s return from injury 13 games ago, only four teams have scored more goals per 60 minutes.
Despite being favorites in this game, fans and bettors should question how big of a favorite Edmonton should be. Sports Interaction lists the Oilers as -275 moneyline favorites, implying a 70 percent win probability. However, Edmonton is just 4-5 against St. Louis over the last three seasons and has dropped four of six meetings since the start of 2022-23.
Best Bet for Blues vs. Oilers
Connor McDavid Over 3.5 Shots On Goal (-105) at Sports Interaction
Despite their recent hot streak, the Blues remain a poor defensive team, overly reliant on their goaltenders. Over the past five games, St. Louis ranks 30th in shot attempts against, 28th in shots against, and 26th in expected goals against. While McDavid only managed one shot on goal against the Blue Jackets, he has recorded four or more shots in nine of his last 12 games and in four of his last six matchups with the Blues. Better odds for this prop may be available if you shop around.
Dylan Holloway Anytime Goal (+475) at Sports Interaction
This bet might seem like a narrative play—hoping Holloway scores a revenge goal against his former club—but his recent form justifies consideration. Over the past month, Holloway has tallied 37 shots on goal, second on the team behind Jordan Kyrou’s 38. The next closest teammate has just 29 shots. At +475, these odds appear generous given Holloway’s level of activity. This will be a half-size bet, for what it’s worth.
