Join Daily Faceoff’s Andy MacNeil as he handicaps Friday’s matchup between the Anaheim Ducks and Edmonton Oilers.
Ducks vs. Oilers Odds
- Anaheim Ducks Moneyline: +350
- Edmonton Oilers Moneyline: -450
- Puck Line: Ducks +2.5 (-130), Oilers -2.5 (+110)
- Game Total: 6.5 (Over -120, Under +100)
Game odds courtesy of Sports Interaction.
Handicapping the Ducks (16-20 SU, 25-11 ATS, 11-22-3 O/U)
Anaheim picked up its first win in Winnipeg since Jan. 23, 2017, on Thursday, rallying to defeat the Jets 4-3 in overtime. The victory extended the Ducks’ winning streak to three games, their longest of the season, starting with a 5-3 comeback win over the Oilers on Dec. 29 and a 3-2 victory over the Devils on Dec. 31. With six wins in their last nine games, Anaheim is on its best run of the season heading into Friday’s game in Edmonton. However, this will be their fifth game in seven days since returning from the holiday break.
John Gibson made his first start since Dec. 20 on Thursday, ending a stretch of five consecutive starts for Lukas Dostal. The move gave Dostal some rest ahead of this matchup, where he’s expected to start. Dostal has been a bright spot for the Ducks, ranking second in goals saved above expected and eighth in save percentage among goaltenders who’ve faced at least 500 unblocked shot attempts. However, he’s 2-3 against the Oilers in his career and is likely to face significantly more shots than he did in their last meeting.
The Ducks have allowed the second-most shots against per 60 minutes in the league this season. They rank 30th in expected goals percentage and 29th in shot attempt percentage, but from a betting perspective, they stand out as the third-most profitable underdog bet in the NHL. Anaheim has won 14 of 34 games as an underdog, including seven of 16 on the road. The Ducks also have a 25-11 record on the puck line.
Anaheim’s biggest upset of the season came on Nov. 18, when they defeated Dallas 4-2 as a +356 underdog, but they had two days’ rest before that game. In contrast, the Ducks are 1-4 on the road in the second half of back-to-backs this season and 0-4 in this situation as a big underdog (+200 odds or longer). That said, since the puck line is set at two and a half goals, it’s worth noting Anaheim has only lost two road games by more than two goals this season.
Handicapping the Oilers (22-15 SU, 14-23 ATS, 16-20-1 O/U)
The Oilers returned to the win column with a commanding 4-1 victory over the Utah Hockey Club, and the odds suggest they’ll win Friday’s game eight out of 10 times. That checks out, as Edmonton has defeated the Ducks in eight of their last 10 meetings. Before last week’s surprising loss to Anaheim, the Oilers had won seven straight in the series. This game is also one of Edmonton’s most favorable scheduling spots of the season, making them the third-biggest moneyline favorite in the NHL this year. Edmonton has had two days off since their win over Utah.
Last season, Edmonton thrived in these scenarios, going 14-2 at home when their moneyline odds were -200 or greater, including a perfect 9-0 with odds of -280 or higher. That sample of games featured dominant 6-1 and 8-2 blowouts over Anaheim. Additionally, 12 of those 14 victories were by multiple goals.
This season, the Oilers are 8-2 straight up at home with odds of -200 or greater, though only four of those wins have been by multiple goals. In other words, +110 odds don’t offer enough value to justify betting on Edmonton to cover a two-and-a-half-goal spread.
While Edmonton should win Friday’s game, the Oilers have not been a profitable moneyline favorite this season. From a handicapping perspective, a different approach is needed. Betting on Edmonton to win at -450 odds offers almost no margin for error. A bettor who placed one-unit wagers on the three previous home favorites with -400 odds or greater this season would be up just 74 cents year-to-date. However, a single one-unit loss would erase that small profit—and then some.
Betting on home favorites with moneyline odds of -400 or greater went 21-2 last season, resulting in a net profit of just over two units. However, the margin for error with these wagers is extremely small.
Best Bet for Ducks vs. Oilers
Leon Draisaitl Anytime Goal (+100) at Sports Interaction
According to Oilersnation’s Jason Gregor, Edmonton is going with some unique line combinations on Friday, but he also indicated that Oilers’ head coach Kris Knoblauch may experiment with his line combinations throughout the game. This makes handicapping player props a bit of a nightmare, but one line that will remain untouched is the team’s second line, consisting of Leon Draisaitl, Vasily Podkolzin, and Viktor Arvidsson.
Draisaitl has scored in nearly 60 percent of his games this season (22 out of 37 games), but his odds suggest he has a 50-50 chance of scoring on Friday. That doesn’t add up, considering he’s scored 14 goals in 12 games versus Anaheim since the start of the 2021-22 regular season. The 29-year-old scored two goals in Edmonton’s 5-3 loss to Anaheim on Dec. 29, marking the ninth time in 12 games against the Ducks that he’s scored at least one goal.
