Join Daily Faceoff’s Andy MacNeil as he handicaps Thursday’s matchup between the Edmonton Oilers and Pittsburgh Penguins.
Oilers vs. Penguins Odds
- Edmonton Oilers Moneyline: -200
- Pittsburgh Penguins Moneyline: +178
- Puck Line: Oilers -1.5 (+125), Penguins +1.5 (-141)
- Game Total: 6.5 (Over -105, Under -107)
Game odds courtesy of Pinnacle.
Handicapping the Oilers (25-15 SU, 16-24 ATS, 16-23-1 O/U)
Edmonton opened its four-game road trip with wins over the Seattle Kraken (4-2) and the Boston Bruins (4-0). Now, the Oilers will look to extend their winning streak to five games against the Pittsburgh Penguins on Thursday. While the odds favor Edmonton, the team is just 1-3 as a big road favorite (-200 or greater) this season. However, most of those losses came earlier in the season when the Oilers were struggling, and that’s not the case anymore.
The Oilers have the best goal share since Nov. 1, according to Evolving Hockey. This is driven by the fact that Edmonton has scored the most goals per 60 minutes, and only four teams have allowed fewer goals (per 60). Their underlying metrics are also strong. Edmonton ranks fourth in expected goals for and second in expected goals against per 60 minutes. The Oilers also rank among the top five on the power play (28.2 percent) and penalty kill (85.2 percent) since Nov. 1.
Calvin Pickard started both games against Pittsburgh last season, allowing just one goal on 64 shots, but it’ll be Stuart Skinner who starts on Thursday. Skinner is 2-0 with a 0.99 goals against average versus the Penguins. Connor McDavid also seems to love playing the Penguins. McDavid has nine goals and 18 assists in 15 career games versus Pittsburgh.
This is all bad news for Pittsburgh, as the Oilers have gone 8-2 against the Penguins in the last 10 meetings, and it hasn’t been close. In fact, Pittsburgh hasn’t defeated Edmonton since Dec. 20, 2019.
Handicapping the Penguins (17-25 SU, 21-21 ATS, 24-17-1 O/U)
While the Oilers aim for their fifth win in a row, the Penguins are looking to avoid suffering a fifth straight loss. Pittsburgh dropped all three games on its recent road trip, losing to Detroit, Florida, and Carolina, before returning home to blow a 3-1 lead against the Blue Jackets.
Pittsburgh will have one game-time decision, as Evgeni Malkin could return to the lineup after missing one game with an upper-body injury. The 38-year-old has been productive so far this season, with 32 points in 41 games, but he has struggled to find the back of the net. Malkin has just eight goals on the season and has scored only three times in 15 games since the start of December.
Penguins’ captain Sidney Crosby has also been productive. In fact, he’s the only member of the team who has scored at a point-per-game pace this season. Crosby has 11 goals and 44 points in 42 games, but since Nov. 7, the future Hall of Famer has scored just five goals in 28 games. Crosby hasn’t fared well against the Oilers, either—at least not in the Connor McDavid era. Crosby has just three goals and six assists in 16 games versus Edmonton since the start of the 2015-16 season.
According to Evolving Hockey, Pittsburgh ranks 19th in both expected goals percentage and shot attempt percentage in all situations, but 27th in goal share. What’s most concerning about the Penguins, though, is the fact that only one team has allowed more goals per 60 minutes.
Best Bet for Oilers vs. Penguins
Oilers -1.5 (+125) at Pinnacle
Not only has Edmonton won seven games in a row versus the Penguins, but the Oilers have covered the puck line in all seven games, winning by three goals or more each time. Edmonton has shut out the Penguins (4-0) in each of the last two games. The Oilers have also outscored the Penguins by a combined score of 16-3 in their last three trips to Pittsburgh.
Zach Hyman Anytime Goal (+184) at Pinnacle
Zach Hyman hasn’t scored in his last six games, and although he isn’t skating alongside Connor McDavid on the top line, this is a good time to bet on him to find the back of the net. Hyman is still on the team’s top power-play unit, and he’s been building chemistry with his new linemates, Jeff Skinner and Adam Henrique. Hyman also has six goals in seven games versus the Penguins since joining the Oilers.
