After a heartbreaking double-overtime loss in Game 2, the Edmonton Oilers offered their worst performance since Round One in Game 3, losing their composure in what ultimately became a blowout loss.

While it feels as though Edmonton is searching for answers entering Game 4, a bounce-back win in Game 4, and it will reclaim home-ice advantage and be considered the favourite in the series once again. At the time of writing, the Oilers are slightly larger underdogs than they were in Game 4 at +125, implying a 44% chance of finding a way to win this critical matchup.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes and outline my favourite betting angles below.

The Oilers were never really able to piece things back together after Brad Marchand’s goal 56 seconds into the first period in Game 3, and authored their worst performance since the first two games of the playoffs versus the Los Angeles Kings. After Carter Verhaeghe’s 3-1 goal in the second, Edmonton entirely lost its composure and let the game get out of reach.

Once the game was out of reach, the Oilers did well to attempt to take a piece from the Panthers in the blowout loss, and it was their lack of discipline while the game was still competitive that was a more legitimate concern.

The Oilers started to stray away from making the easy play when needed in Game 2, and struggled mightily to do so in many instances in Game 3. The Panthers’ furious pressure makes it difficult to make the right decisions with the puck all the time, but the mistakes made by Oilers skaters in Game 3 by players such as John Klingberg and Darnell Nurse came down to more than Florida’s approach and can’t happen in the Stanley Cup Final.

The majority of Edmonton’s passionate fanbase and analysts were in agreement in questioning whether the Oilers were icing their optimal defensive pairings in Game 3, and ultimately, they were proven correct as the pairings that Paul Coffey and Kris Knoblauch opted to start the game with were disastrous.

Head coach Kris Knoblauch noted in his media availability Wednesday that he was debating one lineup change, and the general speculation is that the change will mean inserting Troy Stecher back into the lineup. It’s not realistic for Knoblauch to ever scratch Nurse, and the more likely change will be Stecher overtaking Klingberg’s spot in the lineup.

Nurse has benefitted from Stecher’s stabilizing presence when the two have been paired together this postseason, and reuniting that duo would offer Knoblauch the ability to form a rock-solid top four of Evan Bouchard and Brett Kulak and Mattias Ekholm and Jake Walman.

Managing the puck more effectively and making the simple plays have to be the greatest focus for the Oilers entering this matchup. The Oilers do not need to cheat the game for offence in order to create quality chances, and if they can avoid back-breaking mistakes while trying to do too much, it will go a long way to keeping the Panthers’ attack in check.

The need to play a much more disciplined game Thursday will surely be a message Knoblauch attempts to drive home to his team. Trying to send a message physically late in Game 3 was perfectly reasonable, but many of the needless penalties prior to that point were the reason the game got out of reach but should be a solvable issue as the Oilers attempt to refocus and knot up the series.

Stuart Skinner’s performance was one of the Oilers’ many issues in Game 3, but it would still feel like an overreaction to shift to Calvin Pickard for Game 4. Skinner is 6-0 in Game 4s in his career with a .955 save percentage and has shown the capability to bounce back after shaky outings historically.

After earning a critical win in Game 2 that could have gone either way, the Panthers baited the Oilers into playing their game on Monday’s big win. The Panthers were more disciplined early on and were able to force the Oilers into numerous mistakes while managing the puck relatively well themselves.

Special teams have been the greatest reason why the Panthers currently hold a lead in the series, as they have succeeded on 29.4% of their many opportunities and killed off 81.3% of the Oilers’ power play opportunities. It seems logical to believe that we will see fewer power plays both ways in the later parts of the series, especially given the number that have come with referees opting to take only one player out of a scrum.

The Panthers hold a 50.51% expected goal share throughout the first three after their convincing performance on Monday. The entirety of the series still suggests that the Oilers have been able to cause just as many problems defensively for the Panthers as Florida is for them, but Edmonton has offered up the more noteworthy mistakes over the last two games.

Sergei Bobrovsky holds a +11.7 GSAx rating this postseason, as well as a .916 save percentage. He’s fallen behind Sam Bennett as the Panthers’ favourite to win the Conn Smythe Trophy, but that could change quickly if Bobrovsky is able to steal two more wins in games that may feature much better performances from the Oilers.

The Oilers made far too many unnecessary mistakes in an undisciplined performance in Game 3. Though the Panthers deserve plenty of credit, I believe McDavid was right in saying that we haven’t seen the Oilers’ best game in this series.

The speculated changes on the back end should help the Oilers clean things up in their own end in this matchup and offer a more stable performance. I’m not sold that the Panthers will own such a significant edge in terms of special teams play moving forward, and the Oilers should be able to play a much more disciplined game in this spot.

McDavid stated that we still haven’t seen the Oilers’ best game in the series, and it seems reasonable to believe that was a fair statement from the Oilers’ Captain. Game 3 was a full-fledged disaster for the Oilers, but it’s still tough to believe that these teams are far apart, and this seems like a good spot to bounce Edmonton, offering a much better performance.

At a price of +125 there looks to be value backing the Oilers to find a way to knot the series at two and reclaim home ice advantage.