The Oilers sent the home crowd home happy with an 8-1 win in Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Final, but now they’ll have to stop Florida from doing the same in Game 5 on Tuesday. With a win, Edmonton can avoid elimination and drag the Panthers back to Alberta for Game 6. Let’s take a look at the matchup from a betting perspective.

Panthers vs. Edmonton Game 5 Odds

  • Edmonton Oilers Moneyline Odds: +115
  • Florida Panthers Moneyline Odds: -135
  • Puck Line Odds: Oilers +1.5 (-225), Panthers -1.5 (+180)
  • Game Total: 5.5 goals (over -105, under -115)

Stanley Cup Final Odds

The Oilers’ Stanley Cup odds were 13/1 heading into Game 4, but they’ve improved to +725 following their blowout win. Meanwhile, Florida’s odds have lengthened from -3000 to -1200 after the loss. Sergei Bobrovsky is still the favourite to win the Conn Smythe Trophy, but the gap has closed between him and Aleksander Barkov, who is now listed at +125. Connor McDavid (6/1) is the only member of the Oilers in contention for the award, according to the betting market.
Check out Daily Faceoff to get updates regarding the line combinations and goaltenders for Game 5 of the Cup Final.

Handicapping the Panthers (15-6 SU, 8-13 ATS, 9-11-1 O/U)

Despite the loss, the Panthers must be excited to have a chance to win the Stanley Cup on home ice. However, a seed of doubt has been planted. Not only did they lose 8-1, but their goaltender was pulled, shattering the aura of invincibility around him. Coaches and players can say that it doesn’t matter whether it’s one goal or eight, but it doesn’t until it does. The Panthers were fortunate to be up 3-0 heading into Game 4, and they’re going to look a lot more pedestrian if Sergei Bobrovsky continues to struggle.
Bobrovsky looked beatable for the first time in the Cup Final in Game 4, allowing five goals on 16 shots before he was pulled by head coach Paul Maurice. Backup goaltender Anthony Stolarz didn’t fare much better, allowing three goals on 19 shots, in his first taste of playoff hockey. The tandem allowed roughly three goals above expected, according to Evolving Hockey. On the bright side, Bobrovsky only played 24:53 in Game 4, so at least he was able to get a good amount of rest heading into Game 5. He’ll need it, too. 
The Oilers are the only team to generate 30-plus shots on goal in three games versus Florida. Edmonton has also done a better job limiting the Panthers chances than any other team has in the playoffs, by quite a wide margin. Florida generated approximately 14 high danger chances per 60 minutes in the first three rounds, but Edmonton has held them to 12 or fewer in all four games. The last team to rally from a 3-1 deficit to force a Game 7 in the Cup Final was none other than the 2006 Oilers. The Panthers better show up offensively in Game 5 or they’ll be uncomfortably close to being on the wrong side of history.

Handicapping the Oilers (13-9 SU, 7-15 ATS, 11-11-1 O/U)

Moving Warren Foegele up to the top line with Zach Hyman and Connor McDavid, and putting Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Leon Draisaitl, and Dylan Holloway on the second line turned out to be a great move by head coach Kris Knoblauch. McDavid, Hyman, Draisaitl, Nugent-Hopkins, and Holloway all had big nights. In fact, all but three players—Derek Ryan, Cody Ceci, and Philip Broberg—scored at least one point in Edmonton’s 8-1 win on Saturday. This is significant for the Oilers, who hadn’t seen much scoring from their forward group in the series.
Of course, the score wouldn’t have been as lopsided if Stuart Skinner wasn’t on his game. The 25-year-old stopped 32 of the 33 shots he faced, and according to Evolving Hockey, an average goaltender would have allowed approximately four more goals in Game 4. Edmonton will need Skinner to outplay Bobrovsky again if they want to keep their championship hopes alive, and that doesn’t seem like an impossible task following the team’s offensive breakout.
Facing a 3-1 series deficit in the Stanley Cup Final is unlike any challenge Edmonton has had to overcome, but the Oilers are a team that knows how to turn it around. Since Kris Knoblauch took over behind the bench, there have been three stretches where the Oilers lost three games in a row, but the team responded with a lengthy win streak each time—all more than four games. In the playoffs, the Oilers have shown up each time they’ve faced elimination, and we should expect nothing less in Game 5.

Team Betting Trends

  • Florida is now 3-3 in games where they can eliminate an opponent this postseason. Edmonton is 3-0 when facing elimination.
  • The home team is 40-45 (.470) this postseason.
  • 51 out of 85 games have been decided by one goal in the 2024 NHL playoffs, but only one game has been decided by one goal in the Cup Final.
  • Over the past three postseasons, the total is 38-15-2 (69.1 percent) to the under in Games 5-7, compared to 62-47-2 (.558) to the over in Games 1-4. The last two games were the first two to go over the total in the series.

Player Prop Betting Trends

  • Since the start of the Western Conference Final, Connor McDavid has scored four goals and 13 assists. He’s also registered at least three shots on goals in seven out of those 10 games. McDavid has one goal and seven assists in the Cup Final.
  • Vladimir Tarasenko has scored in three of his last four games, including Game 3 and Game 4 versus Edmonton. He has registered three or more shots in each of his last three games. No player has generated more high danger chances than Tarasenko in the series, according to Natural Stat Trick.
  • Aleksander Barkov and Evan Rodrigues are tied for the team lead in points (four) over the last four games. Rodrigues and Tarasenko are the only Panthers that have scored multiple goals in the series.
  • Matthew Tkachuk has now gone nine games without a goal and he has registered just one assists so far in the Cup Final.

Best Bets for Oilersnation

  • Line shopping is one of the biggest ways that a bettor can gain an edge. For example, the majority of sportsbooks are listing the Oilers at +115 or +120, but some shops are being a little more generous for one reason or another. Check out NorthStar Bets to get +128 odds on the Oilers’ moneyline. It’s currently the best price in the betting market.
    Edmonton looks to be going with the same lineup as they did in Game 4, which means Warren Foegele should get another look playing alongside McDavid and Hyman. Foegele registered four shots on goal on Saturday playing on the top line, and he’s scored a goal and an assist so far in the Cup Final. Bet on Foegele to score a goal at 6/1 odds at Sports Interaction.