Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final lived up to the hype and then some, as both teams offered an extremely high level of play in an exciting back-and-forth matchup. The Panthers are currently smaller underdogs in Game 2 than they were in Game 1, despite both teams being expected to offer the same lineups, and the Oilers looking to be the better team by a small margin in the series opener.
I’ll detail the relevant game notes and outline my favourite betting angles below.
Panthers vs Oilers Game 2 Odds
- Panthers Moneyline Odds: -105
- Oilers Moneyline Odds: -115
- Puck Line Odds: Panthers +1.5 (-250), Oilers -1.5 (+200)
- Game Total: 6 goals (over -120, under +100)
| Regular Season Stats | Oilers | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
Goals For per 60 minutes (5-on-5) | 2.48 (14th) | 2.32 (22nd) |
Goals Against per 60 (5-on-5) | 2.52 (22nd) | 2.09 (4th) |
Expected Goals per 60 (5-on-5) | 2.88 (2nd) | 2.76 (6th) |
Expected Goals Against per 60 (5-on-5) | 2.43 (11th) | 2.44 (2nd) |
High-Danger Scoring Chances % (5-on-5) | 55.81 (1st) | 53.16 (7th) |
Goal Differential | +23 (11th) | +29 (10th) |
Power Play % | 23.7% (12th) | 23.5% (13th) |
Penalty Kill % | 78.2% (16th) | 80.7% (4th) |
Save Percentage (Stuart Skinner vs Sergei Bobrovsky) | .896 | .906 |
Goals Saved Above Expectation (Skinner vs Bobrovsky) | -1.5 | +7.2 |
Florida Panthers
There were periods of Game 1 in which the Panthers carried more of the overall play and caused problems for the Oilers with their aggressive forecheck. Given the extremely high level of play from both of these sides, chances are most of the matchups in this series will remain fairly marginal.
The Oilers were able to generate a strong output of quality scoring chances in last year’s series, and it seemed logical to believe that would be the case this year prior to the series. Edmonton led 17 to 12 in high-danger scoring chances in Game 1 and outshot the Panthers 46 to 32.
Both teams offered a comparable amount of defensive breakdowns at even strength in Game 1, but the Oilers were ultimately deserving winners and were able to dictate more of the overall run of play.
The Panthers came as advertised from a tactical perspective at even strength. They chipped plenty of pucks in deep at the offensive blue line, attempting to force Edmonton’s defenders into tough retrievals, while the Panthers’ defensive core was highly aggressive in the offensive zone on attempted breakouts up the walls.
Aside from much of the second period, the Oilers were able to handle the Panthers’ pressure relatively effectively and get plays moving in the other direction. Florida was outshot 37-to-30 in even-strength play, and only the second line of Matthew Tkachuk, Sam Bennett, and Carter Verhaeghe was overly dominant at five-on-five.
The Oilers were able to generate a wealth of scoring chances against Florida’s top defensive pairing of Gustav Forsling and Aaron Ekblad in Game 1, which could be an important indicator moving forward. The Oilers generated 1.79 expected goals for throughout 23:45 of even-strength play with Forsling and Ekblad on the ice and outshot the Panthers 16 to 5.
Sergei Bobrovsky had an excellent showing in Game 1, as he stopped 42 of 46 shots faced and 0.65 goals above expected. Viktor Arvidsson’s second-period tally was the only goal that Bobrovsky arguably was supposed to save, though it did come with a good screen from Vasily Podkolzin out front.
Edmonton Oilers
The Oilers had some momentary lapses that nearly proved fatal in the series opener, but have to be pleased with their performance overall, and the way that they were able to handle the Panthers’ aggressive style of play. Edmonton’s defensive core has improved considerably year-over-year with regard to defensive zone puck retrievals and breakouts, and was well supported by a low forward in most sequences in Game 1.
At the other end of the ice, the Oilers had no problems generating high-quality chances and did a good job of creating havoc with their own forecheck, particularly in overtime and the third period.
The Oilers spotted the Panthers a 3-1 lead after an ugly sequence of decisions led to the type of breakdown that they have done such a great job of limiting dating back to Game 3 of Round One. John Klingberg made a half-hearted pinch on the wall in the offensive zone, and all three forwards got caught too deep as the play went the other way.
It feels as though the Panthers will be more dependent on the Oilers making mistakes and beating themselves than the other way around in this series. No team is better than Florida at forcing its opponent to make mistakes that lead to high-danger chances, but Edmonton looks more capable of creating quality looks in the offensive zone even when the Panthers have their shape defensively.
Edmonton outshot the Panthers 16-2 with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl on the ice in Game 1, and the Oilers’ dynamic duo was still the greatest reason they were able to earn a victory. However, there were plenty of standout performances from skaters further down the lineup card, including from unheralded wingers such as Podkolzin and Kasperi Kapanen, who were both excellent in all three zones.
Jake Walman getting hung with a -1 plus/minus rating was a perfect example of why it can be a dated stat that is becoming more and more irrelevant, as he was clearly one of the best skaters from either side in the series opener. Walman’s excellent composure in the defensive zone stood out all evening, and his ability to make plays in the offensive zone also proved impactful.
Skinner was rock-solid in the series opener, as he really wasn’t at fault on any of the Panthers’ three goals, and he made some critical saves to keep the game within reach with his side down 3-1.
Best Bets for Panthers vs Oilers Game 2
The Oilers were the better team overall in Game 1, and seem to be well situated to build on that performance in this matchup. From a tactical perspective, it’s well known the ways in which the Panthers will attempt to generate offence, and while it’s hard to prevent, it seems more reasonable to believe Edmonton can continue to manage the puck well and create more at the other end of the ice.
It’s surprising to me that the betting lines on this game have moved towards Florida, as Edmonton looked to be a worthy favourite entering the series, and displayed more positives in Game 1 than the Panthers did.
Chances are this will be another closely contested matchup decided by only a mistake or two, but at -115 there looks to be value in riding with the Oilers to build on their comeback win and grab a 2-0 series lead.
Best Bet: Edmonton Oilers Moneyline -115 (Play to -120)
