Join Daily Faceoff’s Andy MacNeil as he handicaps Tuesday’s Pacific Division matchup between the Anaheim Ducks and Edmonton Oilers.
Ducks vs. Oilers Odds
- Anaheim Ducks Moneyline: +277
- Edmonton Oilers Moneyline: -322
- Puck Line: Ducks +1.5 (+112), Oilers -1.5 (-126)
- Game Total: 6.5 (Over -105, Under -107)
Game odds courtesy of Pinnacle.
Handicapping the Ducks (34-25 SU, 21-38 ATS, 27-31-1 O/U)
Believe it or not, but after going 7-1-0 in the month leading up to the 4 Nations Face-Off, Anaheim has inserted itself into the Western Conference wild card race. Of course, the Ducks weren’t able to keep the momentum going coming out of the break, going 1-2-1, and their playoff chances are unlikely, to say the least. Still, Anaheim is in the race, and that could influence the decision on who to start in goal against Edmonton.
Both Lukas Dostal and John Gibson rank among the top goaltenders in the league through the lens of Evolving Hockey’s goals saved above expected metric, but Dostal ranks third behind Connor Hellebuyck and Logan Thompson in that category, and he has a winning record.
Tuesday’s game marks the first half of a back-to-back for Anaheim, who will play in Vancouver on Wednesday. Given where the Canucks are in the standings, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Ducks save Dostal for that game, since an important two points will be on the line.
The Ducks still rank among the worst teams in the league statistically. According to Evolving Hockey, they rank 30th in both expected goals percentage and shot attempt percentage at five-on-five. Additionally, since the beginning of January, they’ve scored on just 13 percent of their opportunities on the man advantage and they have had the seventh-worst penalty kill.
From a betting perspective, however, Anaheim has been the fourth-most profitable underdog bet this season overall, and the Ducks rank fifth in money won as road underdogs. That said, they have lost eight of their last 10 meetings against the Oilers, including their last four trips to Edmonton. The last time Anaheim won a road game in Edmonton was Dec. 17, 2022.
Handicapping the Oilers (34-25 SU, 27-32 ATS, 24-32-4 O/U)
The Oilers are back home to play three games at Rogers Place before heading back out onto the road for another trip through the Eastern Conference. Edmonton will face two weaker opponents, Anaheim and Montreal, before hosting the Stars on Saturday. In other words, this is a good chance for the Oilers to get back on track after going 1-4 on their recent five-game road trip.
Edmonton did manage a strong finish on the trip, defeating the Carolina Hurricanes 3-1 for their first regulation win since Jan. 27. The Oilers controlled 51 percent of the expected goals and 55 percent of the shot attempts at five-on-five against the Hurricanes, which is impressive considering that Carolina ranks first in both of those categories, and it’s a good sign because the Oilers hadn’t played that well in their last handful of games.
Hart Trophy favorite Leon Draisaitl extended his point streak to 11 games with a pair of assists, but his seven-game goal scoring streak came to an end. Connor McDavid also extended his point streak, picking up an assist for a fourth game in a row. McDavid also registered four shots on goal. Veteran Corey Perry also scored another five-on-five goal, bringing him to six five-on-five goals since Jan. 1, which ranks second on the team behind Draisaitl.
Calvin Pickard stopped 35 of 36 shots in the win, making it one of his best performances of the season. If you ask me, I’d say his play should earn him a second consecutive start given how bad Stuart Skinner has been recently, but head coach Kris Knoblauch might not want to let Skinner sit too long.
On the injury front, defenseman Brett Kulak did not skate on Monday due to an illness. As a result, Edmonton recalled Cam Dineen from the AHL, so Kulak’s availability for Tuesday’s game versus the Ducks is in question.
Best Bet for Ducks vs. Oilers
Connor McDavid Over 1.5 Points (-115) at Pinnacle
McDavid hasn’t scored a point at five-on-five in 10 consecutive games, but Tuesday’s matchup should present him with the opportunity to do so. The Ducks are an awful five-on-five team, and they don’t do a good job killing penalties, so this looks like a great spot to back McDavid to have his first multi-point game since Feb. 4. The Oilers captain has registered two or more points in 10 out of 13 games against Anaheim since the start of the 2021-22 season.
