After a controversial finish to a hotly contested Game 3, the Edmonton Oilers return home with the opportunity to grab a 3-0 series stranglehold versus the Vegas Golden Knights.

Historical trends suggest earning a 3-0 lead in any series is a difficult task. Dating back to the 2015-16 NHL postseason, teams that are down two to nothing in the series are 30-20 in Game 3, and betting on each of these teams to win would have yielded a +17.6 ROI.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes and outline my favourite betting angles below.

The Golden Knights undoubtedly offered a better performance in Game 2 than they did in Game 1, despite ultimately suffering the same result. The lasting memory for many will be the obvious missed tripping call on Viktor Arvidsson prior to Leon Draisaitl’s overtime winner, which was a tough way for a high-quality game that could have gone either way to finish.

The Knights were outshot 37 to 32 but generated 19 high-danger scoring chances compared to the Oilers’ total of 18 and led 3.75 to 3.70 in expected goal share.

Alex Pietrangelo was impactful in his return to the lineup, as he scored a goal and an assist, and the Knights held a 57.53% expected goal share during his 29:05 of time on ice.

Victor Olofsson helped compensate for Pavel Dorofeyev’s absence from the lineup, showing that he has a comparably effective one-timer from the right flank on the power play. Olofsson scored two power play goals in Game 2, moving the Knights’ power play success rate to 32% this postseason, after the team finished the regular season with the second-highest success rate.

Jack Eichel was embarrassed on the overtime winner after being caught flat-footed by Connor McDavid, but he had a tremendous performance overall and was arguably the best skater on the ice. Eichel finished with three assists and did a good job of helping lock down McDavid and Leon Draisaitl for most of the evening.

Adin Hill did not play well in Game 2, as Vasily Podkolzin’s go-ahead marker in the second period should always be saved in an NHL playoff game, and it would be reasonable to say Darnell Nurse’s 3-1 goal is also supposed to be stopped. Hill now holds a -5.1 GSAx rating and a save percentage of just .874 this postseason.

Though McDavid and Draisaitl were able to come up clutch on the overtime winner, they were outplayed by the Knights’ top stars for most of the evening. Vegas was also the more effective team on special teams, as the Oilers’ power play failed to break through once again, while their penalty kill allowed two goals against.

In years past, the Oilers likely would not have had much chance of winning a game where their dynamic duo was not at their best and in which they lost the special teams battle, but Edmonton’s second and fourth lines were excellent, and the defence core had another strong showing at even strength overall.

The Oilers’ second line of Evander Kane, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman finished with a 68.9% expected goal share and all factored in on the team’s fourth goal. In 55.3 minutes together this postseason, they hold a 74.1% expected goal share and have outscored the opposition three-to-one.

Viktor Arvidsson and Mattias Janmark have elevated their game at the right time, playing on the fourth line, while Podkolzin has continued to offer underrated two-way play. With the current fourth line on the ice, the Oilers have outscored opponents five-to-one this postseason and allowed only 2.61 xGA/60.

As the series shifts to Edmonton, head coach Kris Knoblauch should be able to use the last change to help cherry-pick some favourable spots to use McDavid and Draisaitl’s line and try to offer them more minutes away from Eichel and Mark Stone’s line at even strength.

Despite his 6-0-0 record, Calvin Pickard has not been spectacular by any means this postseason, but he’s made the majority of saves that he is supposed to, which is all the team is asking for. He holds a -1.0 GSAx rating and .888 save percentage during the playoffs.

The Knights offered a much better performance in Game 2 and will likely bring a comparably strong performance into this matchup. Their power play has had an excellent start to the series after finishing second in the regular season, and they were able to generate more high-quality looks at even strength in Game 2.

Home ice advantage has been more noteworthy in the early going of this postseason, but dating back to the 2022-23 postseason, road teams are 112-119; betting on every road team would have yielded a +1.3% ROI. The Knights are an experienced group capable of handling a tough road environment and should be able to make this game comparably competitive as Game 2 was.

With those thoughts in mind and the data that supports betting on teams down 2-0, there does not look to be much value in backing the Oilers, though there are plenty of positives to point towards regarding their current six-game winning streak.

Backing both teams to score three goals in this matchup at a long price of +135 does look to provide value. Hill has struggled in this series, while the Knights have not been overly dominant defensively all postseason, including in their series versus a Minnesota Wild team that was horrible offensively down the stretch.

Pickard is still somewhat of a question mark in goal, though, and has mainly been effective because of how well the Oilers have defended in front of him. The Knights were able to create more high-quality looks in Game 2, and it seems likely that they will find a way to create some offence tonight in what is essentially a do-or-die spot.