The Vegas Golden Knights were able to claw their way back into the series with the Edmonton Oilers Saturday evening, and will have the opportunity to reclaim home ice advantage Monday in Game 4.

After a closely contested Game 3 in which Oilers’ goaltender Stuart Skinner was not overly sharp, oddsmakers have set the betting prices on Monday’s matchup more evenly, as the Knights are slight underdogs at +100.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes and outline my favourite betting angles below.

As the Oilers had their six-game winning streak snapped in Skinner’s first game back, it’s easy to conclude that the goaltending change was the greatest reason for the result of Game 3. While Skinner was certainly not overly sharp, from a statistical perspective it’s not overly surprising that Vegas found a way to win.

The Knights outshot the Oilers 24 to 20 in Game 3 and held a 2.83 to 2.79 edge in expected goal share. Head coach Bruce Cassidy shuffled his offensive lines quite a bit throughout the game due to Mark Stone’s injury, as no trio played more than 4:42 together, and it was two of the original misfits, Reilly Smith and William Karlsson, who were able to carry the team to victory.

The Knights continued to set up in a 1-1-3 in the neutral zone to try and limit controlled zone entries for the Oilers’ top stars, and it was effective to some extent, though at even strength they were still outchanced. In even-strength play, the Oilers generated 11 high-danger scoring chances compared to the Knights’ total of 7.

Mark Stone did not skate Sunday and is considered day-to-day ahead of this matchup. He is one of the game’s best defensive wingers and a key piece on the top line, so confirmation towards his status is obviously noteworthy from a handicapping perspective, especially as the Knights’ depth at right wing is not overly strong.

Adin Hill had a better showing in Game 3 but has had a fairly tough postseason overall with a -5.4 GSAx rating and .872 save percentage across nine starts.

The Oilers were not at their best in Game 3 and also received a bad start in goal from Skinner, yet still nearly found a way to win, and did hang in respectably from a statistical perspective. That could be viewed as a positive, as the Oilers should be able to offer a sharper performance in Monday’s matchup.

Dating back to Game 3 of the Kings’ series, Edmonton’s defensive game had been quite solid overall, which allowed Calvin Pickard to record six straight starts. During their six-game winning streak, Edmonton allowed only 2.86 xGA/60, and the eye-test would agree that it had done a much better job of limiting breakdowns in the key areas of the ice.

Vegas tied the game at two late in the first after some soft stick-checks from the Oilers, allowing Smith to earn a mini breakaway. The goal had nothing to do with tactics, as the Oilers were reasonably well positioned, and it was the type of breakdown that simply can not happen in the NHL postseason but should be preventable moving forward.

The Oilers’ defensive play on Smith’s game-winner was somewhat comparable, as they were in solid position defensively, but Darnell Nurse bit unnecessarily on the initial shooting threat, providing Smith the ability to get into a better area.

Despite some poor defending prior to the game winner, Smith’s eventual shot still would have been saved if Skinner had simply retreated to his post to play a shot from a should-be dead angle. Skinner looked fairly awkward in his goal all night long, finishing with a -1.69 GSAx rating, and now holds a save percentage of just .817 this postseason.

Leon Draisaitl looked to be hampering around in Game 3, and it’s easy to speculate that he is dealing with a fairly significant injury, considering his tremendous play this season and in previous playoff runs. His excellent playmaking and shooting abilities still make him an asset, but he’s clearly not overly mobile right now.

While Corey Perry’s excellent patience and finishing ability were on display once again in Game 3, head coach Kris Knoblauch still broke up the top trio later in the game. Playing Perry on the top unit works well to help balance the lineup, but with Draisaitl laboring as he is, it’s difficult for that trio to get much pressure on the Knights’ defence and track down loose pucks.

While Edmonton’s games have continued to be highly chaotic all postseason long, it has still outchanced the opposition more significantly than any other team this playoff. It holds a 60.75% expected goal share across all strengths, and has generated 4.46 xGF/60.

Even in a matchup where some soft defensive lapses crept back into the Oilers’ game and Skinner was not sharp in goal, Edmonton still nearly found a way to win. The Knights have been outchanced at even strength in this series quite significantly and were not overly impressive in their series versus the Minnesota Wild.

Stone’s status is quite significant entering this matchup, and even if he is unable to play at his usual level, it would go as a big loss for a team that has not controlled much of the play at even strength this postseason.

While it might not be a lot of fun to count on Skinner right now, Hill’s play has also been quite shaky, and the betting prices on this game seem to be giving plenty of credit to the idea that Skinner puts the Oilers at a huge disadvantage.

There looks to be value in backing the Oilers to win a game that features over 5.5 total goals at a price of +160. It seems hard to imagine the Oilers winning a low scoring matchup with Skinner in goal right now, but they could be able to score their way out of trouble versus a Knights team that has not looked great defensively, and is also receiving below average play in goal from Hill.