The Western Conference Final is now a best-of-3 series following Edmonton’s 5-2 win in Game 4. With a win, Edmonton will be one win away from reaching its first Stanley Cup Final in 18 years. This article breaks down the odds and trends that make this game worth betting on.
Oilers vs. Stars Game 5 Odds
- Edmonton Oilers Moneyline Odds: +110
- Dallas Stars Moneyline Odds: -130
- Puck Line Odds: Oilers +1.5 (-230), Stars -1.5 (+190)
- Game Total: 6 goals (over +100, under -120)
All odds courtesy of Bet365.
Oilers vs. Stars Series Odds Update
The Stars are still the favourite (-120) to win the series, but there’s a 50-50 chance that this matchup will need all seven games. In other words, we’re looking at a virtual coin flip. The current Stanley Cup odds are close, too. Florida is the favourite at +150 after taking a 3-2 series lead in the Eastern Conference Final, but Dallas and Edmonton are neck-and-neck at +230 and +240, respectively.
Handicapping the Oilers (59-39 SU, 43-55 ATS, 44-50 O/U)
Game 4 couldn’t have started any worse for Edmonton, as they fell behind 2-0 just 5:29 into the game. The Oilers didn’t fold, though; in fact, they did anything but. Edmonton immediately took control of the game from that point on, and unlike in previous games, they did not take their foot off the gas pedal. Additionally, after allowing two goals on the first four shots, Stuart Skinner was perfect, stopping the next 18 shots he faced.
Led by Connor McDavid, who picked up three assists and registered five shots on eight attempts, the Oilers controlled 65 percent of expected goals and 54 percent of shot attempts in Game 4, according to Evolving Hockey. However, while McDavid’s production was impressive, Edmonton looked even more dominant when Leon Draisaitl was on the ice, owning 75 percent of the expected goals during even-strength play.
When Draisaitl was on the ice, Edmonton outshot Dallas 13-5 and outscored the Stars 2-0. The Stars didn’t have an answer for No. 29, owning just 15 percent of the expected goals (all situations) when he was on the ice. He did all this with two new linemates on his wings, too, as both Ryan McLeod and Corey Perry made their returns to the lineup and made an immediate impact.
Handicapping the Stars (62-37 SU, 43-56 ATS, 49-49 O/U)
One of the bigger storylines coming out of Game 4 was the injury to Stars’ defenseman Chris Tanev, who Dallas acquired at the trade deadline for this very purpose. Tanev did not return to the game after blocking a shot in the second period, and he was later spotted at the Edmonton airport in a walking boot.
Tanev, who ranks fourth on the team in time on ice, will be a game-time decision, but if he’s not able to play, Dallas will be down a key cog on the penalty kill that kept the Oilers’ power play off the board throughout the series. That’s no easy feat, given that Edmonton’s five-man unit is one of the greatest ever assembled, and it could be a big turning point in this series.
After all, Dallas has already started to crack defensively. According to Natural Stat Trick, high danger shots were 11-7 in favour of the Oilers in Game 4, and 27-17 over the last two games. If that trend continues, the Stars’ big guns better step up, or the team will be pushed to the brink of elimination given how good Edmonton has been on the road this postseason.
For all that was said about the Stars’ depth, it hasn’t produced much offensively for the team. Jason Robertson’s hattrick was the story of Game 3, but he’s been quiet otherwise. And, the Stars second line, which consists of Matt Duchene, Joe Pavelski, and Mason Marchment, has combined for just one goal in four games against Edmonton.
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Team Betting Trends
- Road teams have gone 43-35 (.551) straight up this postseason. The Oilers are 5-3 as the away team in the playoffs, with six of their eight games having been decided by one goal.
- Dallas has gone 4-3 straight up against the Oilers this season (regular season and playoffs) and the two teams have combined for seven or more goals in four games.
- Edmonton is 1-4 to the under in its last five games as the away team, while the Stars are 3-2 to the over in their last five games at home.
- Neither team has scored a power play goal in the series. The Oilers have gone 0-5 on the man advantage, while the Stars are 0-10. Edmonton hasn’t seen more than four minutes of power play time in a game yet in the Western Conference Final.
Player Prop Betting Trends
- Leon Draisaitl led Edmonton in scoring heading into the Western Conference Final, but Oilers’ captain Connor McDavid has scored two goals and five assists in his last four games. With 28 points in 16 games, McDavid now has the second-best odds of winning the Conn Smythe Trophy as the most valuable player in the playoffs.
- Edmonton has scored nine goals, compared to just four for Dallas, with Evan Bouchard on the ice. Bouchard has registered a point in all but three games this postseason. Overall, Edmonton has outscored the opposition 41-13 when Bouchard has been on the ice this postseason.
- Tyler Seguin has registered 15 shots in four games versus Edmonton so far in the postseason. Seguin has registered three or more shots in three out of four games against Edmonton and he has hit that mark in 12 of 16 playoff games overall.
Best Bets for Oilersnation
The Western Conference Final really has had a best-on-best feel to it, unlike the Eastern Conference Final. Edmonton has looked a lot more comfortable when the score has been close, though, and this should be another tightly contested game. Not to mention, Dallas had a lot of trouble closing out games on home ice during the regular season, and that has been the case in the postseason, too. The Stars are just 4-5 straight up on home ice in the playoffs, and Edmonton has shown that they are more than capable of winning games on the road. Bet the Oilers to win straight up at +110 odds.
