<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">The <a href="https://oilersnation.com/news/instant-reaction-edmonton-oilers-run-up-the-score-on-the-vancouver-canucks-in-7-3-win">Oilers</a> will <a href="https://publish.oilersnation.com/2024/11/12/oilers-game-notes-16-0-edmonton-hosts-the-injury-riddled-new-york-islanders/">host the Islanders on Tuesday</a> as New York begins a five-game road trip, with the betting market viewing this as a significant mismatch.</span></p>
<h2><span style="font-weight: 400;">Islanders vs. Oilers Odds</span></h2>
<ul>
<li style="font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-weight: 400;">New York Islanders Moneyline: +180</span></li>
<li style="font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Edmonton Oilers Moneyline: -225</span></li>
<li style="font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Puck Line: Islanders +1.5 (-140), Oilers -1.5 (+120)</span></li>
<li style="font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Game Total: 6 (Over -115, Under -105)</span></li>
</ul>
<p><i><span style="font-weight: 400;">Game odds courtesy of Sports Interaction.</span></i></p>
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<h2><span style="font-weight: 400;">Handicapping the Oilers (7-8 SU, 5-10 ATS, 4-10-1 O/U)</span></h2>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Saturday’s game in Vancouver delivered for those anticipating an offensive showcase, as <a href="https://oilersnation.com/news/instant-reaction-edmonton-oilers-run-up-the-score-on-the-vancouver-canucks-in-7-3-win">the Oilers defeated the Canucks 7-3</a>. Edmonton dominated at even strength, capturing 63% of expected goals and 56% of shot attempts, outscoring the Canucks 6-2.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">The Oilers allowed one goal while killing two penalties but went 1-for-3 on the power play themselves, making this their best offensive showing of the season. For a team that ranked second in home-ice scoring last season, it’s time they bring that level of firepower to Rogers Place.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Edmonton has averaged just 1.88 goals per game at home this season—two goals fewer per game than their average over the past three seasons. Last season, they ranked second in home scoring, netting four or more goals in well over half their home games. And their record might look different had McDavid’s injury not coincided with a tough stretch of games.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">I expect the Oilers to improve at home, but the betting market is already anticipating this turnaround so <a href="https://oilersnation.com/news/nhl-betting-preview-nov-9-oilers-vs-canucks-odds">this isn&#8217;t an advantageous spot for moneyline or puck line bettors like Saturday’s game against Vancouver was</a>. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Despite their slow start, Edmonton is still projected to be one of the league’s top home teams based on their steep moneyline odds (-225) and puck line odds (-1.5, +120)—a reminder that oddsmakers base lines on expectations rather than recent results.</span></p>
<h2><span style="font-weight: 400;">Handicapping the Islanders (6-9 SU, 5-10 ATS, 9-5-1  O/U)</span></h2>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;"><a href="https://oilersnation.com/news/oilers-game-notes-16-0-edmonton-hosts-the-injury-riddled-new-york-islanders">New York comes into Tuesday’s game banged up</a>, with several key players out long-term. Top forward Mathew Barzal has missed five games and is expected to be sidelined for another month. The Islanders’ only major offseason addition, Anthony Duclair, has only played five games so far. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">On defense, Adam Pelech has missed four games and is likely out as long as Barzal, while Alexander Romanov has missed four consecutive games, appearing in just eight games total. Defenseman Mike Reilly is also out with a concussion. That means three of the seven defensemen who started the season on New York’s blue line are currently sidelined, and there’s been a big drop off in their defensive play as a result. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">New York was the third-best team in shot attempts against and sixth-best team in expected goals against (per 60 minutes) through their first 10 games, but the Islanders fell to 26th and 20th in those categories, respectively, over their last five games, according to Evolving Hockey. New York has allowed nearly 34 shots per 60 minutes in their last five games after holding the opposition to roughly 26 shots per 60 in their first 10 games.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">The Islanders’ offense has picked up since Barzal’s injury, but the team ranked 32nd in goals per 60 minutes over their first 10 games, including being shut out four times. I’m not convinced this recent scoring boost is due to anything beyond randomness. Of course, both Ilya Sorokin and Semyon Varlamov have shown that they can keep the Islanders afloat with strong goaltending, and that’s what makes them frustrating to bet against.</span></p>
<h2><span style="font-weight: 400;">My Best Bets</span></h2>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">New York works hard to limit quality chances by forcing shots to the outside. Last season, the Islanders allowed the third-most low-danger shots on net, and only four teams have allowed more over their last five games, according to Natural Sat Trick. Opposing defensemen have thrived in this stretch, which is why I&#8217;m zeroing in on the following player prop bet.</span></p>
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<h3><span style="font-weight: 400;">Mattias Ekholm Over 2.5 Shots On Goal (+125)</span></h3>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">The arguments against betting on Mattias Ekholm to register at least three shots on goal Tuesday are valid. Ekholm has only hit the over on 2.5 shots in one of his last seven games, and his stint on the top power play unit was brief. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">However, the venue plays a big role here. Ekholm has been much more active shooting in home games, especially at Rogers Place when the Oilers are heavy favorites. He’s hit three or more shots on goal in five of eight home games, including all four where Edmonton was heavily favored, as they are on Tuesday. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">With the Islanders’ defensive gaps, this looks like a strong opportunity for the 34-year-old.</span></p>


<span style="font-weight: 400;">The <a href="https://oilersnation.com/news/instant-reaction-edmonton-oilers-run-up-the-score-on-the-vancouver-canucks-in-7-3-win">Oilers</a> will <a href="https://publish.oilersnation.com/2024/11/12/oilers-game-notes-16-0-edmonton-hosts-the-injury-riddled-new-york-islanders/">host the Islanders on Tuesday</a> as New York begins a five-game road trip, with the betting market viewing this as a significant mismatch.</span>
<h2><span style="font-weight: 400;">Islanders vs. Oilers Odds</span></h2>
<ul>
 	<li style="font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-weight: 400;">New York Islanders Moneyline: +180</span></li>
 	<li style="font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Edmonton Oilers Moneyline: -225</span></li>
 	<li style="font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Puck Line: Islanders +1.5 (-140), Oilers -1.5 (+120)</span></li>
 	<li style="font-weight: 400;"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Game Total: 6 (Over -115, Under -105)</span></li>
</ul>
<i><span style="font-weight: 400;">Game odds courtesy of Sports Interaction.</span></i>
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<h2><span style="font-weight: 400;">Handicapping the Oilers (7-8 SU, 5-10 ATS, 4-10-1 O/U)</span></h2>
<span style="font-weight: 400;">Saturday’s game in Vancouver delivered for those anticipating an offensive showcase, as <a href="https://oilersnation.com/news/instant-reaction-edmonton-oilers-run-up-the-score-on-the-vancouver-canucks-in-7-3-win">the Oilers defeated the Canucks 7-3</a>. Edmonton dominated at even strength, capturing 63% of expected goals and 56% of shot attempts, outscoring the Canucks 6-2.</span>

<span style="font-weight: 400;">The Oilers allowed one goal while killing two penalties but went 1-for-3 on the power play themselves, making this their best offensive showing of the season. For a team that ranked second in home-ice scoring last season, it’s time they bring that level of firepower to Rogers Place.</span>

<span style="font-weight: 400;">Edmonton has averaged just 1.88 goals per game at home this season—two goals fewer per game than their average over the past three seasons. Last season, they ranked second in home scoring, netting four or more goals in well over half their home games. And their record might look different had McDavid’s injury not coincided with a tough stretch of games.</span>

<span style="font-weight: 400;">I expect the Oilers to improve at home, but the betting market is already anticipating this turnaround so <a href="https://oilersnation.com/news/nhl-betting-preview-nov-9-oilers-vs-canucks-odds">this isn't an advantageous spot for moneyline or puck line bettors like Saturday’s game against Vancouver was</a>. </span>

<span style="font-weight: 400;">Despite their slow start, Edmonton is still projected to be one of the league’s top home teams based on their steep moneyline odds (-225) and puck line odds (-1.5, +120)—a reminder that oddsmakers base lines on expectations rather than recent results.</span>
<h2><span style="font-weight: 400;">Handicapping the Islanders (6-9 SU, 5-10 ATS, 9-5-1  O/U)</span></h2>
<span style="font-weight: 400;"><a href="https://oilersnation.com/news/oilers-game-notes-16-0-edmonton-hosts-the-injury-riddled-new-york-islanders">New York comes into Tuesday’s game banged up</a>, with several key players out long-term. Top forward Mathew Barzal has missed five games and is expected to be sidelined for another month. The Islanders’ only major offseason addition, Anthony Duclair, has only played five games so far. </span>

<span style="font-weight: 400;">On defense, Adam Pelech has missed four games and is likely out as long as Barzal, while Alexander Romanov has missed four consecutive games, appearing in just eight games total. Defenseman Mike Reilly is also out with a concussion. That means three of the seven defensemen who started the season on New York’s blue line are currently sidelined, and there’s been a big drop off in their defensive play as a result. </span>

<span style="font-weight: 400;">New York was the third-best team in shot attempts against and sixth-best team in expected goals against (per 60 minutes) through their first 10 games, but the Islanders fell to 26th and 20th in those categories, respectively, over their last five games, according to Evolving Hockey. New York has allowed nearly 34 shots per 60 minutes in their last five games after holding the opposition to roughly 26 shots per 60 in their first 10 games.</span>

<span style="font-weight: 400;">The Islanders’ offense has picked up since Barzal’s injury, but the team ranked 32nd in goals per 60 minutes over their first 10 games, including being shut out four times. I’m not convinced this recent scoring boost is due to anything beyond randomness. Of course, both Ilya Sorokin and Semyon Varlamov have shown that they can keep the Islanders afloat with strong goaltending, and that’s what makes them frustrating to bet against.</span>
<h2><span style="font-weight: 400;">My Best Bets</span></h2>
<span style="font-weight: 400;">New York works hard to limit quality chances by forcing shots to the outside. Last season, the Islanders allowed the third-most low-danger shots on net, and only four teams have allowed more over their last five games, according to Natural Sat Trick. Opposing defensemen have thrived in this stretch, which is why I'm zeroing in on the following player prop bet.</span>
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<h3><span style="font-weight: 400;">Mattias Ekholm Over 2.5 Shots On Goal (+125)</span></h3>
<span style="font-weight: 400;">The arguments against betting on Mattias Ekholm to register at least three shots on goal Tuesday are valid. Ekholm has only hit the over on 2.5 shots in one of his last seven games, and his stint on the top power play unit was brief. </span>

<span style="font-weight: 400;">However, the venue plays a big role here. Ekholm has been much more active shooting in home games, especially at Rogers Place when the Oilers are heavy favorites. He’s hit three or more shots on goal in five of eight home games, including all four where Edmonton was heavily favored, as they are on Tuesday. </span>

<span style="font-weight: 400;">With the Islanders’ defensive gaps, this looks like a strong opportunity for the 34-year-old.</span>

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