Edmonton and Nashville face off for the third time this season, but it’s their first meeting at Rogers Place. The Oilers have already beaten the Predators twice with a combined score of 9-3, making them strong moneyline favorites for Thursday’s game.

Predators vs. Oilers Odds

  • Nashville Predators Moneyline: +150
  • Edmonton Oilers Moneyline: -185
  • Puck Line: Predators +1.5 (-160), Oilers -1.5 (+135)
  • Game Total: 6.5 (Over +100, Under -120)
Game odds courtesy of Sports Interaction.

Handicapping the Predators (5-11 SU, 7-9 ATS, 6-10  O/U)

Last season, general manager Barry Trotz responded to his team’s poor play by canceling their trip to see U2 at The Sphere in Las Vegas, sparking a 16-0-2 run. However, this season, Trotz’s public callout hasn’t had the same effect. 
Since he appeared on a local radio show last week, warning he’d initiate a rebuild if the team didn’t improve, the Predators have gone 1-3. Nashville did look to be turning things around following their 0-5 start, with three straight wins, but the Predators have lost six of their last eight games.
The Predators have scored two or fewer goals in nine of their 16 games this season, ranking last in the league for 5-on-5 scoring. Unsurprisingly, they’re 0-9 when scoring two or fewer goals and 1-11 when scoring three or fewer, underscoring their need for both more offensive production and improved defense.
Only three teams have allowed more five-on-five goals than the Predators, who rank 25th in goals against in all situations, but goaltender Juuse Saros hasn’t received enough support from his teammates. Saros has saved the team 7.5 goals above expected, which currently ranks fifth among goaltenders that have faced at least 400 unblocked shot attempts. 
The 29-year-old ranks first in goals saved above expected since Oct. 22nd, but during this stretch he’s had one bad game, and it was against the Oilers.

Handicapping the Oilers (8-8 SU, 5-11 ATS, 5-10-1 O/U)

Edmonton has won two in a row for the fourth time this season, but to gain ground in the Pacific Division, they need to extend these streaks instead of repeatedly losing momentum with setbacks after each step forward. However, one would hope, given how the Oilers have dominated the Predators in recent years, that they will finally break through on Thursday.
Since 2020, the Oilers have gone 12-1-1 against the Predators, and 10 of the 12 victories were won by margin of two goals or more. Edmonton has outscored Nashville 4.5 – 2.3 on average over the last 14 games, and as mentioned, that trend has carried over into this season. Edmonton crushed Nashville in both games, and based on their underlying metrics in those games, it’s likely that they’ll win on Thursday.
Edmonton has controlled more than 65 percent of the expected goals and more than 60 percent of the shots at even strength versus Nashville this season, and the Predators haven’t finished any of their last seven games with a positive shot differential. Meanwhile, the Oilers have outshot 13 out of their 16 opponents so far, which indicates that they will control play on Thursday.
However, there is a concerning trend with Edmonton’s goaltending. Since Oct. 28, Stuart Skinner ranks dead last in goals saved above expected, according to Evolving Hockey. The 26-year-old has gone 3-2 straight up during that stretch, but his play has made some games feel like more of a sweat than they should. Skinner has only played one good game over his past five, and he’s allowed three or more goals in all but two of his 11 outings this season.

Best Bet for Predators vs. Oilers

With Jeff Skinner now moved to the fourth line, and Viktor Arvidsson listed as a game-time decision, bettors might look to Ryan Nugent-Hopkins or Zach Hyman to pick up the slack, but I think this is a good spot to bet on a player prop involving Connor McDavid.

Connor McDavid Over 3.5 Shots On Goal (-105) at Sports Interaction

McDavid has registered at least four shots on goal in seven out of his 13 games played, including the one game he played against Nashville earlier this season. Since returning from injury three games ago, the Oilers’ captain has registered 14 shots, including four against Vancouver and eight against the Islanders. Nashville only allowed 30-plus shots in three out of their first 10 games, but the trend has flipped, with the Predators allowing 30 shots or more in four out of their last six games. McDavid is currently sitting at 999 career points.