The Battle of Alberta may be missing its biggest star for the first time in over eight years, but Calgary versus Edmonton remains a must-see matchup, with Edmonton still the betting favourite.
Oilers vs. Flames Odds
- Edmonton Oilers Moneyline: -150
- Calgary Flames Moneyline: +125
- Puck Line: Oilers -1.5 (+155), Flames +1.5 (-190)
- Game Total: 6.5 (Over -105, Under -115)
Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction.
Matchup
Calgary opened the season 3-0, including handing Edmonton its third loss on Oct. 13. Since then, the Flames have won just three of eight games, though they remain two points ahead of the Oilers in the Pacific Division standings. Edmonton, now 5-3 since its 0-3 start, is 1-0 without captain Connor McDavid, following a 5-1 victory over the Predators in Nashville. The Oilers have won five of their past eight games against Calgary since 2022-23, with a perfect 4-0 record at the Saddledome. Calgary is 2-2 against Pacific Division teams this season, with wins over Vancouver and Edmonton and losses to Seattle and Vegas.
Check out Daily Faceoff to get updates regarding the line combinations and goaltenders for today’s game.
Handicapping the Oilers (5-6 SU, 3-8 ATS, 3-7-1 O/U)
Edmonton has historically dominated the Predators, so while Thursday’s win was promising, it may be premature to be overly optimistic. Leon Draisaitl’s line led the Oilers, with Draisaitl scoring twice and assisting on Viktor Arvidsson’s first goal of the season. Alongside Vasily Podkolzin, they controlled 64% of shots and expected goals at five-on-five, per Natural Stat Trick.
However, the line of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Zach Hyman, and Jeff Skinner controlled only 32% of five-on-five shot attempts and 25% of high-danger chances. With back-to-back games on Sunday and Monday, a clearer picture of the Oilers’ form may emerge, though some dip in performance is anticipated without McDavid.
Edmonton’s bottom-six forwards have contributed minimally. Mattias Janmark, Connor Brown, and Adam Henrique have scored just one five-on-five goal in 42:18 of ice time. While Corey Perry’s line tends to control play, as seen against Nashville, it rarely contribute goals.
Defence remains an issue as the Oilers rank 21st in expected goals against at five-on-five despite being among the top 10 in shots against. Goalie Stuart Skinner hasn’t yet strung together more than two solid games, and he’s coming off an ugly six-goal game against the Blue Jackets. Skinner ranks 33rd in goals saved above expected among 40 eligible goaltenders with at least 200 minutes played.
Handicapping the Flames (6-5 SU, 6-5 ATS, 4-7 O/U)
The Flames snapped a four-game losing skid with their win over the New Jersey Devils, thanks to a two-goal performance from Blake Coleman and a shutout from Daniel Vladar. However, while goaltending has been somewhat of a strength for the Flames, I’m not sold. Calgary currently ranks sixth in goals against per 60 minutes at five-on-five, but it ranks 22nd in expected goals against. The Flames allowed more shots per 60 minutes than all but four teams and they don’t typically outshoot opponents.
Calgary only has one dominant line, consisting of Jonathan Huberdeau, Andrei Kuzmenko, and Yegor Sharangovich. Huberdeau leads the Flames in goals with five, while Kuzmenko leads the team in assists with six. Last season’s scoring leader, Sharangovich, recently returned after missing the first seven games of the season.
The trio has controlled 65 percent of the shot attempts and nearly 80 percent of the expected goals in just over 15 minutes of ice time. However, the other three forward lines are in the red when it comes to shot differential and expected goal differential at five-on-five, according to Natural Stat Trick. Another source, Evolving Hockey, suggests the Flames have owned only 38.5 percent of expected goals over their last five games.
The Flames outscored teams 16-9 in their first three games, but they’ve been outscored 25-16 over their last eight games.
My Best Bet
Leon Draisaitl Over 0.5 Power Play Points (+165)
Edmonton’s power play remains one of the league’s worst, with only four goals on 30 opportunities. However, three of those goals have come in the last five games. Meanwhile, Calgary’s penalty kill, ranked 26th, has allowed at least one goal in six of its 11 games this season. In their game against Nashville, we got a brief look at how the Oilers’ power play might function without McDavid, with Draisaitl now leading what was recently the league’s top unit.