NHL schedule makers got it right when they penciled Connor McDavid and the Edmonton Oilers into travel to Detroit for an early start time against the Red Wings on Sunday.
Oilers vs. Red Wings Odds
- Edmonton Oilers Moneyline: -190
- Detroit Red Wings Moneyline: +155
- Puck Line: Oilers -1.5 (+125), Red Wings +1.5 (-150)
- Game Total: 6.5 (Over -115, Under -105)
Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction.
Matchup
Edmonton snapped a two-game losing skid with a 4-0 shutout win over the Pittsburgh Penguins on Friday. Sunday’s game against the Red Wings will mark the start of a four-game road trip that will also see the Oilers travel to Columbus, Nashville, and Calgary.
Detroit had its three-game win streak broken by a 5-3 loss to the Buffalo Sabres on Saturday. Sunday’s meeting against the Oilers marks the start of a three-game homestand for the Red Wings, who will also host Winnipeg and Buffalo.
The Oilers are 10-4-1 versus Detroit with McDavid in the lineup, including a 5-2 record on the road in Detroit. Edmonton won both meetings last season by a combined score of 11-6.
Check out Daily Faceoff to get updates regarding the line combinations and goaltenders for today’s game.
Handicapping the Red Wings (4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS, 5-3 O/U)
Detroit is lucky to be playing .500 hockey. According to Evolving Hockey, they rank last in shot attempts, unblocked attempts, and expected goals at five-on-five. Natural Stat Trick also ranks them as the second-worst team at generating and suppressing high-danger chances at five-on-five. In Saturday’s game, Buffalo controlled 62% of shot attempts, 65% of expected goals, and 70% of high-danger attempts.
No team has scored fewer goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five than the Red Wings, although having the league’s fifth-best save percentage has helped. However, it doesn’t seem sustainable. Both Alex Lyon and Cam Talbot are reliable goaltenders, but expectations weren’t high given Detroit’s defensive issues.
Lyon, who saved about one goal above expected last season, currently ranks sixth in goals saved above expected in five games. Talbot has saved the team around two goals in four games and may be in line to start against his former team, the Oilers, where he has a 3-1-1 record since leaving.
Handicapping the Oilers (3-5 SU, 2-6 ATS, 2-5-1 O/U)
Edmonton enters their back-to-back against the Red Wings and Blue Jackets well-rested, with two days off to prepare. Last season, the Oilers thrived in these situations, going 6-2 as road favorites when they had extra rest.
According to Evolving Hockey, the Oilers rank second in key metrics like expected goals and shot attempt percentage at even strength—an area where the Red Wings, as mentioned, rank last. Skill and structure set these two teams far apart, giving Edmonton a significant edge in the matchup.
Only four teams have allowed more expected goals on a per-60-minute basis than Detroit, and no team has allowed more shots on goal per game. Detroit also has the second-worst penalty kill in the league after Edmonton, and the Oilers’ power play, which has scored in two consecutive games, should see opportunities on Sunday against an undisciplined Red Wings team.
If Friday’s game against the Penguins is an indication, the Oilers should control play and dominate the Red Wings on Sunday given that both Detroit and Pittsburgh allow a similar amount of shots against. Not to mention, Edmonton’s offense is starting to find its legs.
Stuart Skinner is coming off his first shutout of the season, but Calvin Pickard will start one of the next two games. Skinner is 1-1 against the Red Wings in his career while Pickard is 3-1-0 against his former team, including a 3-2 overtime win in Detroit back in January.
My best bets
The Oilers have registered 30-plus shots in all but one game so far this season, including a season-high 50 shots on Friday. Detroit, meanwhile, has allowed 34-plus shots in five out of their eight games so far this season. In other words, it’s a good day to target some player shot props.
Connor McDavid Over 3.5 Shots On Goal (-110) at Sports Interaction
McDavid only went over 3.5 shots on 28 occasions last season, but the season prior he went over that mark in 53 of 82 games played. This season, McDavid has registered at least four shots on goal in four out of his last six games, and he’s got 10 shots in his last two games.
Mattias Ekholm Over 2.5 Shots On Goal (+100) at Sports Interaction
Backing Ekholm to register over 2.5 shots on goal in Friday’s game against Pittsburgh worked out well. The 6-foot-five defender finished the game with six shots, one goal, and an assist while playing more than 22 minutes. Ekholm has registered at least three shots in five out of his last seven games, including all of the games in which Edmonton has been a big favorite, like they are on Sunday.
Jeff Skinner Over 2.5 Shots On Goal (-125) at Sports Interaction
Skinner registered just one shot against the Penguins, but he only attempted two shots. However, Skinner had averaged six-plus attempts per game with the Oilers prior to that and he registered at least three shots on goal in six out of eight games so far. Skinner registered three or more shots on goal in nine out of his last 10 games versus Detroit as a member of the Sabres.
