On Monday night, the Edmonton Oilers are heavy favorites at -275 on the moneyline as they push for their first three-game winning streak of the season against the Columbus Blue Jackets.
Oilers vs. Blue Jackets Odds
- Edmonton Oilers Moneyline: -275
- Detroit Red Wings Moneyline: +220
- Puck Line: Oilers -1.5 (-105), Red Wings +1.5 (-115)
- Game Total: 6.5 (Over -120, Under +100)
Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction.
Matchup
Both teams have surprised early in the season. Edmonton reached .500 after a comeback win over Detroit, while Columbus, expected to struggle, also sits at .500 after an impressive start. The Oilers are 6-4 in their last 10 games against the Blue Jackets but have lost four of their last five, including the past three in Columbus. Last season, the teams split their two games, each winning on home ice.
Check out Daily Faceoff to get updates regarding the line combinations and goaltenders for today’s game.
Handicapping the Blue Jackets (3-4 SU, 6-1 ATS, 5-2 O/U)
Despite ranking among the NHL’s worst, the Columbus Blue Jackets have proven dangerous, especially in the second game of a back-to-back. Just ask the Toronto Maple Leafs, who, after a win the night before, fell 6-2 in Columbus last week. Edmonton will be the fifth team this season to face the Blue Jackets on short rest; so far, Columbus is 2-2 straight up in those games and has covered the puck line each time.
Sean Monahan has been a great fit for the team. He’s one of four players that have scored at a point per game pace or better for Columbus. Zach Werenski and Yegor Chinakhov are also scoring at a point per game pace, while Kirill Marchenko has four goals and five assists in seven games. However, while no team has scored more goals per 60 minutes than the Blue Jackets at five-on-five, the club does grade out as the second-worst team in expected goals per 60 minutes, according to Evolving Hockey.
Head coach Dean Evason has been able to squeeze his roster to get the most out of it, the way the team is playing right now does not seem sustainable. According to Natural Stat Trick, Columbus ranks 25th in generating high danger shots at five-on-five, and they’re just outside the bottom-10 in high danger shots against. The Blue Jackets don’t have good enough goaltending to play this poorly defensively.
Handicapping the Oilers (4-5 SU, 2-7 ATS, 2-6-1 O/U)
It took a while for the Oilers to get going on Sunday, but they did. Edmonton registered 30-plus shots on goal for the sixth game in a row and the eighth time this season despite generating just five shots on goal in the first period against the Red Wings. However, I’m not quite sure Edmonton deserved the win given that Detroit controlled more than 60 percent of expected goals at five-on-five.
The good thing is, though, the Oilers probably won’t play that poorly two games in a row. Edmonton has been the better team in six out of eight games through the lens of Evolving Hockey’s expected goals model. The Oilers currently rank sixth in expected goal share at five-on-five and only one team owns a bigger share of shot attempts so far.
Edmonton should control play versus Columbus, but it’s worth noting that the Blue Jackets did control expected goals versus the Panthers and Maple Leafs to the tune of 60 percent in previous games and both of those teams were in a situation similar to what the Oilers will be facing on Monday.
Not to mention, Edmonton was just 4-3 straight up last season in road games after playing the day prior, and 5-7 as the road team when the home team had a rest advantage like Columbus does heading into Monday’s game. Of course, goaltender Stuart Skinner is also rested, having not played since his shutout win over the Penguins on Friday. The 25-year-old has saved the team approximately five goals above expected over his last two starts.div class=”bam-inline-promotion-block” data-max-length=”2″ data-placement-id=”2110″ data-context=”web-content-promocard” data-property-id=”330″>
My Best Bet
Viktor Arvidsson Anytime Goal (+250) at Sports Interaction
Arvidsson had a strong performance on Friday, with three assists in Edmonton’s 4-0 win over Pittsburgh. The former two-time 30-goal scorer has yet to score for the Oilers, but he’s been seeing more ice time and taking more shots. In his first seven games, Arvidsson averaged only three shot attempts per game and never registered more than five in a single game.
Recently, however, he has recorded six and eight shot attempts, respectively, over his last two games, with six shots on goal combined. Sports Interaction currently has odds of +250 on Arvidsson to score, making this a strong matchup for the Oilers, even given their fatigue. Columbus ranks 21st in goals against per game (3.41) and 22nd in expected goals against per 60 minutes, indicating this is a solid opportunity for Arvidsson to break through and score his first goal.
