Darcy Kuemper had an outstanding regular season. He was named a finalist, along with Andrei Vasilevskiy and Connor Hellebuyck, for the Vezina Trophy, which is awarded to the NHL’s best goalie each season.
Kuemper deserved the nomination. However, as we’ve seen in the playoffs, even the NHL’s best goalies have weaknesses. And in a playoff series, it is up to the opposing team to pick up those weaknesses (in pre-scout) and then try and exploit them in games.
Edmonton has done that through four games.
Kuemper posted a .922Sv% and 2.02 GAA in 50 regular-season starts. However, in four playoff games, he’s rocking a .881Sv% and 3.74 GAA. And what’s interesting is that the Kings, overall, have sheltered him with a better defensive environment in the playoffs than he saw in the regular season. Kevin Woodley from In Goal Magazine explains.
“The Kings opened things up a little bit in the regular season,” said Woodley. “They gave up more in front of Kuemper this year. He was full value this season for the Vezina trophy nomination. As a matter of fact, in the regular season, he led the NHL in goals saved above expected at 22, which was two and a half better than Connor Hellebuyck.
“So, the environment for him, compared to Kings’ goalies last year, was tougher with an expected save percentage of .893, which is just slightly above the league average. In the playoffs so far, his xSv% is .903. So similar to what we’ve seen for (Calvin) Pickard, it’s been a goalie-friendly environment overall.”
So why have the Oilers been able to score 16 goals on him in four games?
“Where L A is getting beat is by the Oilers’ ability to attack around and below the goal line,” said Woodley. “I talked to you a little bit going into this series about Kuemper’s tendency to go paddle down and reach with it a little bit. He’s reigned it in as the series has gone on, because he’s recognized that he’s reaching with a blocker to his right while they’re passing to his left, which is never good.
“Also, the way they’re attacking him in and off his posts is really good, and it likely came from the pre-scout. I’m assuming that’s Dustin Schwartz because it’s usually the goalie coach’s job. They’re getting Kuemper stretched out and in some really uncomfortable positions by making him go back and forth off dead angles. At times, it looks like he’s coming out of his system when he does that, and he’s getting sprawled out, and he’s getting splayed out, and he’s getting extended. And we’re seeing some awkward positions like the one they challenged on the Evander Kane goal.
“Then they work it back up high in the power plant and Bouchard’s teeing off on a one timer. They’re just doing a really nice job. It’s one thing to be in the zone, but it’s another thing to create dynamic east-west plays when you’re in the zone, and the Oilers obviously have the skill to do that. But where they’ve had their most success creating high danger is down below the hash marks, east-west, out from the goal line, making Kuemper go side to side from dead angles and from plays behind the net. It’s sort of shown a couple of limitations in his movement on those, and it’s got him even when it’s not directly to a scoring chance, it gets him behind on sequences. So, as you move the puck around and behind and then start feeding it up to the top, if he’s behind going side-to-side with his eyes, or then late going back to front, he’s not getting up to the top of the crease on those shots like you would like to see.”
In the series, the xsV% is .902, and it was actually .916 in Game 4, and Kuemper finished at .917, allowing four goals on 48 shots. His best save came in the second period off of Leon Draisaitl, but earlier in the first shift of the second period, is an example of the Oilers creating from the goal line.
Draisaitl was unable to capitalize, but it shows Kuemper’s being vulnerable on those plays that start from behind the net. I expect we will see more of that from Edmonton tonight. Each year, with four different starting goalies, we’ve seen the Oilers’ pre-scout find a weakness and exploit it. So far, it has worked on Kuemper as his playoff numbers, despite being in a more goalie-friendly environment, are worse than his regular-season numbers.

SNAPSHOTS…

— Woodley mentioned the expected Sv% for Pickard, which means if an average goalie was in the net, his xSv% combined in Games 3 and 4 was .904. In the first two games, it was .872% for Edmonton, so the Oilers did play better, which many of us expected, after being very leaky in the first two games. I asked Woodley for his scouting report on what he’s seen from Pickard, who was quite solid, by my eye, on Sunday.
“In Game 3, Pickard gave up some goals that weren’t high danger. They were mid danger. Now, they’re great shots with time and space, but, again, open release with straight lines gets stopped at a higher rate than he was, but he doesn’t give anything up on the high danger. We talked about it before. Skinner only gave up high danger goals in his first two games, but I’ve heard some people say you’re allowed to save a few of those. To be fair, Skinner did face 20 HD chances. Well, Pickard has been a bit better on high danger chances.
“Pickard has been solid and was better in Game 4, and he also had a better environment in front of him (than Skinner) in his games. It helps any goalie when the team plays more structured, and for whatever reason they seem to in front of him. Maybe it had to do with last change, or being desperate trailing 2-0 in the series, but the circumstances were a bit different in terms of the team playing better overall. He is giving them what they need,” said Woodley.
—I’m curious to see if LA tries to create goals from specific areas, similar to how the Oilers have done on Kuemper. The difference, however, is that outside of Adrien Kempe, the Kings’ top-end skill can’t create or finish like the Oilers’ top-end guys.
— Sunday’s Game 4 victory bucked the trend between these two teams. The team that scored first was 19-2 prior to the Oilers coming from behind to win Game 4. LA is now 7-2 when scoring first. They had a 3-0 lead after the first period in Game 4 in 2023, before the Oilers stormed back to win 5-4 in OT, and on Sunday they led 2-0 after twenty minutes and 3-1 after the second period, before the Oilers tied it late in the third and won in OT.
The Oilers are 12-1 when scoring first over the past four playoff series against the Kings. They are 1-0 this year, and when they score first in LA, they are 5-0.
— If Draisaitl picks up one point tonight, LA will be the only franchise in NHL history to have three different players score 40+ playoff points against them. Draisaitl would only be the 10th player all-time to have 40+ points against one opponent. Gordie Howe did it against three teams, while Wayne Gretzky has done it against two. McDavid and Draisaitl feast on LA together like Jaromir Jagr and Mario Lemieux did against Washington.
TEAM
Player
GP
PTS
CGY
Gretzky
37
74
TOR
Howe
55
53
WSH
Jagr
42
52
DET
Bobby Hull
35
50
WSH
Lemieux
29
50
CHI
Ullman
32
46
MTL
Howe
49
46
LA
McDavid
22
45
CHI
Howe
36
45
WPG/ARI
Gretzky
19
43
LA
Messier
30
42
STL
Yzerman
35
40
LA 
Draisaitl
22
39
— Once again, Evan Bouchard is producing in the playoffs. He leads D-men in goals with four, he is second in points with seven (Cam Fowler has eight), and he is tied with Cale Makar for most shots on goal at 19. Makar has played five games, so Bouchard will be leading after tonight. Over the past four seasons, Bouchard has led all NHL defenders in goals (17), assists (48), and points (65) in 57 games played. Cale Makar is second with 51 points in 42 games. Makar does have a higher points/game.
Here’s a look at their 5×5 production as well as shots for/against and goals for/against.
  • Makar has played 41 games (822 TOI), and he’s scored 8-17-25 with a 59.3 SF% (526-361) and a 52.6GF% (41-37).
  • Bouchard’s played 57 games (1,014 TOI), and he’s scored 7-19-26 with a 56.5 SF% (567-435) and a 53.23GF% (57-50).
Bouchard can be frustrating at times defensively, but he’s elite offensively, and regardless of how you view him, he will be getting a significant raise. His TOI combined with his high-end production, especially in the playoffs, would garner him a massive raise in arbitration. Evaluating Bouchard has to be even on both sides. If his mistakes infuriate you, then you should be equally elated with what he does offensively.
Apr 25, 2025; Edmonton, Alberta, CAN; Edmonton Oilers defensemen Evan Bouchard (2) celebrates after scoring a goal against the Los Angelos Kings in game three of the first round of the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Rogers Place. Mandatory Credit: Perry Nelson-Imagn Images

LINEUPS…

Oilers

  • RNH– McDavid – Hyman
  • Podkolzin – Draisaitl– Arvidsson
  • Kane – Henrique – Brown
  • Frederic – Janmark –Perry
  • Nurse – Bouchard
  • Walman – Klingberg
  • Kulak – Emberson
  • Pickard
I don’t put much stock into the line combinations. We’ve seen numerous looks throughout the series, and the lines will change depending on how the game goes. I won’t be surprised to see Draisaitl-McDavid-Perry at some point. I don’t think it matters as much as some like to suggest. Edmonton has changed lines regularly, and their offence rarely struggles. Can the Oilers continue to reduce the glaring giveaways and gifting goals? They made progress in both areas in the past two games, allowing seven goals after allowing 12 in the first two games.

Kings

  • Kuzmenko – Kopitar – Kempe
  • Fiala – Byfield – Laferriere
  • Foegele –Danault – Moore
  • Malott – Helenius – Turcotte
  • Anderson – Doughty
  • Gavrikov – Spence
  • Edmundson – Clarke
  • Kuemper
The Kings have relied heavily on four defensemen, with Joel Edmundson and Vladislav Gavrikov usually playing together. Will Jim Hiller continue to run with only four defenders?
It is odd how Jordan Spence averaged 16:47/game in the regular season, yet he’s played a total of 18:25 in this series. Clearly, the coaches don’t trust him or Jacob Moverare, who has logged a total of 5:02 in his two games. The Kings have shortened their bench significantly so far.
When dressed, Spence, Moverare and Brandt Clarke have played a combined 70:43. The Oilers have used John Klingberg, Ty Emberson and Josh Brown a total of 115:23. And Brown only played 4:54 of that.
And compare the bottom-three forwards on each team: LA’s bottom-three forwards have skated a total of 36:55 while Edmonton’s have logged 132:36.
In the regular season, Adrien Kempe led LA with 19:09 TOI/game, but in this series, the Kings have six forwards averaging over 20 minutes per game, while the Oilers have two in McDavid and Draisaitl. Those two are used to playing big minutes, and I wonder how the Kings’ forwards will handle it the longer the series goes.

TONIGHT…

GAME DAY PREDICTION: It is hard to get a read on this game. I picked Edmonton in six to start the series, so I will stick with that, and they win 5-3 with an ENG.
OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: McDavid, Draisaitl, and Kempe pick up at least one point each and hit double digits in points this series.
NOT-SO-OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Trent Frederic scores his first goal as an Oiler.