The Oilers originally traded for him along with Max Jones at the 2025 trade deadline for a second and a fourth-round pick. Frederic was on the IR at the time of the deal due to a high-ankle sprain, but Edmonton believed he could return and help them in the playoffs.

When he got back in the lineup, Frederic didn’t have the same jump. He didn’t have the same finish. He didn’t bring momentum-changing physicality. He looked like a shell of his former self.

Frederic’s disjointed game reflected on the scoresheet, where he produced just one goal and four points in 22 playoff games. Despite the disappointment, Stan Bowman committed to a max-term deal worth an AAV of $3.85 million.

It was Frederic’s unique combination of speed and size that drove up his market value and allowed him to negotiate a long-term deal without a discount on the cap hit. He even got trade protection in the deal: a no-movement clause that turns into a modified no-trade in 2029-30. The Oilers made a risky investment in Frederic, and so far, they’re feeling buyer’s remorse.

His offensive struggles carried over from the playoffs into the 2025-26 season. He notched seven points in 74 games — by far his lowest-scoring campaign in five years. The opposition had a field day in his minutes, outscoring Edmonton 32-16.

This is truly the worst-case scenario for the Oilers. They’re tied to Frederic for seven more seasons with an untradeable contract. Through nearly 100 games with the club, there have been no signs of the player they thought they’d acquired.

No matter how you look at it, Frederic’s tenure with the Oilers has been a nightmare so far. But does he have the potential to turn it around?

There was a time not too long ago when he was a fantastic five-on-five player. In both 2022-23 and 2023-24, he had around 2 points per hour, which would’ve made him one of the most productive forwards on the Oilers. There’s a good player in there, but what needs to happen for him to re-emerge?

Well, for one, Frederic needs to get healthy. High-ankle sprains are known to linger on athletes for many months, and that was no exception with him. His skating speed fell to the 27th percentile this season after being comfortably in the top half of the league during his time with the Bruins. He wasn’t able to get to pucks fast enough or close distance on the forecheck like he used to.

There were signs of improvement late in the season, with four of Frederic’s top five fastest speed bursts coming in the final month. Perhaps a long offseason to rest and get his lower body back into shape will help him regain some of that explosiveness.

Another reason for optimism is that Frederic’s finishing was uncharacteristically poor. His career average shooting percentage is 10.3 per cent, but last season it was 5.2 per cent. Even his linemates lacked finishing touch, as the Oilers collectively shot under six per cent in his minutes. If he can get closer to his typical shooting percentage, that alone should add a few extra goals to his totals next season.

And what about the coaching staff? The Oilers relieved Kris Knoblauch of his duties earlier this month. Could a new coach put Frederic in a position to succeed? All 96 of his games with the Oilers so far have come under Knoblauch, who hasn’t exactly gotten the most out of Edmonton’s big acquisitions the past few seasons. Look no further than Viktor Arvidsson and Jeff Skinner.

A lot needs to change for Frederic to become the player the Oilers thought they were getting for $3.85 million. At this point, I would take 10 goals and reliable fourth-line minutes if it means salvaging something positive out of this albatross contract. If he doesn’t improve, it’s going to be a long seven years.