Don’t confuse outshooting the opposition with outplaying them.
The Oilers did outshoot Buffalo 34-23 on Monday, and outshot New Jersey 33-22 last night, but quantity doesn’t beat quality.
Of their 67 shots this week, nine of them came from within 10 feet of the net, and five of those came on two different sequences within a few moments. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins had three of them in the final 20 seconds v. Buffalo on Monday, while Adam Henrique tipped a shot and then got his rebound early in the third period last night.
So, 13.4 percent of their shots came within 10 feet. Buffalo and New Jersey combined for nine, which is 20 percent of their shots. Two of their goals came from within 10 feet.
The Oilers had seven shots (10.4 percent of total shots) from 11-20 feet. Buffalo and New Jersey had nine, which was 20 percent of their total shots. They scored one goal (11 feet).
Buffalo and New Jersey combined for 18 shots from within 20 feet and three goals, while the Oilers had 16 shots and no goals. That equals 23.8 percent of the Oilers shots from within 20 feet compared to Buffalo and New Jersey combining for 40 percent.
In the third period last night the Oilers outshot New Jersey 19-6. The only two shots from within 20 feet came from Henrique at the 2:17 and 2:18 mark. He tipped a point shot and then got a backhand rebound chance. The Oilers had no rebound chance the rest of the game. The closest shot from distance was 23 feet from Jeff Skinner, from a sharp angle.
Evan Bouchard’s goal came from 69 feet. There wasn’t a screen, other than Zach Hyman’s stick. If an Edmonton goalie allowed that shot to go in, fans would be screaming.
New Jersey had six shots. Both of their goals came on screened shots. They had layered screens.
Nothing fancy but Nico Hischier and Timo Meier make it very difficult for Stuart Skinner to see Bratt’s release point.
On the Simon Nemec winner, the Devils had traffic in front again.
The above shows a one second time lapse and Skinner doesn’t see the shot. If someone wants to get picky and say he needs to find that shot quickly, and you don’t like how he played that goal, then you should rip Allen for allowing the Bouchard shot.
My point is: How often do we see Oilers forwards screening the goalie, or having layered screens?
Edmonton’s defencemen had 10 of the 19 shots in the third period. The shot distance (in feet) was 69 (goal) 66, 66, 60, 59, 53, 51, 33, 29 and 28. Only one came with somewhat of a screen in front. Other than Henrique’s tip and rebound attempt, the closest distance from a forward was 25 feet.
The Oilers had two shots from 24 feet and under (10.4 percent). I’m sorry, but Allen didn’t have to be great. He was barely challenged.
How many odd-man rush chances did he face all game? None. Skinner faced three and stopped them all.
Edmonton had more shots, but they didn’t have more quality chances, and they didn’t generate many screens or rebound chances. All three of New Jersey’s goals came off of screens and traffic in front. Too many of Edmonton’s depth forwards are allergic to being around the net and getting their nose dirty. Outside of Corey Perry, and Henrique at times, how often do you see the rest of the Oilers’ depth forwards around the crease and in front of the goalie?
I wouldn’t be fooled by the shot clock in Buffalo and New Jersey. Too many shots from distance with little to no traffic in front isn’t a recipe for offensive success.
Oct 9, 2024; Edmonton, Alberta, CAN; Edmonton Oilers goaltender Calvin Pickard (30) replaces goaltender Stuart Skinner (74) after he gave up 5 goals on 13 shots against the Winnipeg Jets at Rogers Place. Mandatory Credit: Perry Nelson-Imagn Images
SNAPSHOTS…
— Edmonton is tied with San Jose for the fewest points in the NHL over the last 15 games. Edmonton is 5-9-1 while San Jose is 4-8-3. The Oilers are 26th in 5×5 goals. Their powerplay has been great at 33.3 percent, but they don’t get enough chances for it to win them a game very often.
— The Oilers have 25 goals 5×5 in their last 15 games. That ranks 26th in the NHL. Draisaitl and Perry each have four. The rest of the forwards combined have 11. The 10 other forwards have scored 11 goals in 15 games at 5×5. That is putrid.
— Kris Knoblauch can’t keep loading up Draisaitl and Connor McDavid on one line and hope to win. I think it is great to play them together after a penalty kill, and in the final 10 minutes of a game if you are trailing by a goal, but he is going to them far too early in games. The score was 0-0 when he put them together. Edmonton wasn’t getting dominated. Not much had happened in the first period, but the Oilers weren’t in trouble. If you load them up now, you are essentially saying you will try to win with one line. Try something else.
— Why not try Adam Henrique with McDavid? They scored nine goals in 87 minutes together last year in the regular season and playoffs. It isn’t a huge sample size, but it clearly worked. Loading up the top line right now isn’t leading to the success the Oilers need.
— Darnell Nurse played his 700th game as an Oiler last night. He is the 12th player to reach that mark and tonight he will tie Craig MacTavish for 11th at 701. Nurse ranks second among D-men, trailing Kevin Lowe (1,037). Nurse’s goal in Buffalo was the 81st of his career and that tied him with Charlie Huddy for second all-time among Oilers defenders. Huddy scored 81 goals in 694 games for the Oilers while Nurse has 81 in 700 games.
— McDavid assisted on both goals last night and reached the 60-assist mark for the ninth time in his career. He joins Wayne Gretzky (13) as the only players with nine-consecutive seasons with 60+ assists. McDavid could catch Gretzky for that record, and he is guaranteed to have at least the second-most career seasons with 60 assists.
Gretzky leads with 17. Paul Coffey had 11, Ray Bourque and Adam Oates (10), and McDavid, Mario Lemieux and Ron Francis each have nine. Bernie Federko, Jaromir Jagr, Joe Thornton and Bryan Trottier each had eight.
— There is a big drop from 60-assist seasons to 70-assist campaigns. A player has recorded 60 assists in a season 427 times, but only 150 times has someone reached 70 assists. Gretzky did it 16 times including 13-consecutive seasons. Lemieux had eight, but only three in a row. Bobby Orr had six, all in a row, while McDavid already has six and he needs 10 assists for a seventh season — it would be his fifth in a row. Coffey also had six seasons with 70+ assists.
— I was asked about offence on X this morning, so I thought I’d post here as well. Here are the 16 playoff teams and their record when they score 4+ goals and then in parenthesis their record when they score three goals or fewer.
- WPG: 31-1 (14-16-3)
- WSH: 29-0-3 (14-15-5)
- COL: 29-2 (10-22-1)
- CAR: 28-1-1 (11-21-3)
- DAL: 28-4-1 (14-16-1)
- FLA: 27-1-1 (14-21-2)
- TB: 27-3-1 (10-20-4)
- TOR: 26-1 (13-22-3)
- VGK: 25-1-1 (14-18-5)
- EDM: 25-2 (12-22-4)
- CBJ: 23-2-1 (8-24-7)
- NJ: 22-1-2 (14-24-4)
- LA: 21-0-1 (14-20-8)
- MIN: 21-2-1 (16-22-4)
- OTT: 18-2-2 (17-23-3)
- CGY: 10-0 (20-23-1)
Now here is their record when they allow two goals or fewer, and then in parenthesis when they allow three or more.
- WPG: 34-1-2 (11-16-2)
- DAL: 31-2 (11-18-2)
- NJ: 30-3-2 (6-22-4)
- WSH: 29-2-1 (14-13-7)
- VGK: 29-2-2 (10-17-5)
- CAR: 29-1 (10-21-3)
- FLA: 28-2 (13-20-1)
- COL: 27-2-2 (12-22-1)
- LA: 27-3-3 (8-17-6)
- TB: 27-5-1 (10-18-4)
- MIN: 26-2-2 (11-22-2)
- EDM: 26-1-1 (11-23-3)
- OTT: 24-2-1 (11-23-4)
- TOR: 22-3-2 (17-20-1)
- CGY: 22-1-4 (8-22-7)
- CBJ: 19-0-3 (12-26-5)
This season the Oilers have scored four goals or more 27 times (25-2), and they’ve allowed two goals or fewer in 28 games (26-1-1). Many get focused more on save percentage, and I think it isn’t as important as goals against. You face 20 shots and allow two goals, you have a .900 save percentage. You face 18 shots and allow two goals, you have a .889 save percentage. Goals against is what increases your odds of winning, not the save percentage. The suggestion Oilers’ goalies never give them a chance to win is actually false when you look at the league.
Edmonton has had 28 games with two goals or fewer. Toronto is at 27, Florida, Carolina and Minnesota have 30, Colorado and Vegas 31 and Dallas, LA and TB at 33. It is a difference of two of five games, outside of Winnipeg who is the outlier at 37 games.
Offensively the Oilers have scored 4+ goals 27 times. Dallas has 33 times, Washington and Winnipeg 32, Colorado and Tampa 31, Carolina 30 and Florida 29. Edmonton ranges from two to six fewer games scoring 4+ goals.
But if you listen to everyone in Edmonton all the problems are solely on goaltending. The Oilers have 28 games allowing two goals or less, despite being the bottom half of the league in odd-man rushes against 5×5 and high-danger chances against 5×5. People focusing all their anger and frustration on one position and overlooking the leaky defence and lack of scoring depth is odd.
Yes, goalies can be better, no question, but the suggestion they never give the Oilers a chance to win doesn’t jive with the actual numbers.
LINEUPS…
Edmonton Oilers
RNH – McDavid – Hyman
J. Skinner – Draisaitl – Arvidsson
Podkolzin – Henrique – Brown
Jones – Kapanen – Perry
Janmark
Walman – Bouchard
Nurse – Stecher
Kulak – Emberson
Janmark didn’t play last night due to illness but could draw back in today. The list of who can come out is very long. The Oilers’ depth forwards need to get a hell of a lot grittier if they want to help out offensively.
New York Islanders
Duclair – Horvat – Palmeiri
Lee – Pageau – Holmstrom
Fasching – Cizikas – Tsyplakov
Engvall – Maclean – Gatcomb
Romanov – Deangelo
Dobson – Pelech
Mayfield – Pulock
The Islanders are 28th in goals/game at 2.69, and even with Ilya Sorokin in goal they sit 17th in goals against at 2.98. Edmonton is 15th at 2.94. The Islanders did great at the trade deadline, getting top prospect Cal Ritchie, a 1st round pick, a 3rd round pick and Oliver Kylington for Brock Nelson. Many scouts rave about Ritchie being similar to Patrice Bergeron. If he is even 80 percentage of Bergeron he’ll have a very good career.
TONIGHT…
Photoshop by Tom Kostiuk at Handmade by Tom
GAME DAY PREDICTION: The pain continues. Oilers lose 4-3.
OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Leon Draisaitl extends his career-best point streak to 17 games and ties David Pastrnak for the longest streak this season.
NOT-SO-OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Teams combine for one power play chance.
