Is there a team statistic that is the best predictor of team success?

Some feel PDO (the combination of save percentage and shooting percentage at 5×5) is this stat. What about shots for percentage (SF%)? Or goals for percentage (GF%)? What about expected goals for percentage (xGF%)?

Let’s look at these stats and a few others.

Let’s start with PDO. Playoff teams are in red. And all of these statistics only account for 5×5 play.

The top seven all made the playoffs, and nine were in the top half of the league. However, three of the four Conference Finalists ranked in the bottom 10 teams. Florida was tied for 23rd, while Edmonton and Carolina were in a four-way tie for 28th.

What about SF%? It adds the total of shots for and shots against for one team and then divides the number of shots for by the total shots to come up with the percentage. Carolina was first in the NHL at 55.7%. They fired 2,017 shots while allowing 1,604. So, 2,017 is 55.73% of 3,621.

The top six were playoff teams, and the top three were Conference Finalists, while 11 were in the top half. On the surface, SF% seems a better indicator of team success than PDO, at least for last season.

Now here’s GF%. Same formula as SF% above, just with goals scored for and against.

The top eight teams made the playoffs, and 11 were in the top half of the league. It had 14 of the top 20. It makes sense as goals are the ultimate factor in the outcome of games.

Here’s a look at xGF%. That said, this stat varies depending on whose model or formula it is, so another site might have slightly different rankings. These are from Natural Stat Trick.

The top three were the exact same as the top three in SF%, and 11 playoff teams were in the top half of the league. Expected goals has a similar pattern to SF%.

These show 5×5 play but exclude special teams, 4×4, 3×3, or empty net goals. NHL teams averaged 49:10 of 5×5 play last season. Vegas had the most at 51:33, while Ottawa had the least at 47:45. So the above stats cover 81% of game time. It is very significant, however, that special teams make up a large portion of the game.

Last year, the NHL had a total of 5,226 goals at 5×5, which was 65.5% of the total number of goals (7,978) scored. Is it valid to look at 81% of play time and deem it the best way to study the best teams, when it only accounts for 65% of goals scored? We’ll see. Even if we removed all the empty net goals (524), then 5×5 play accounted for 70.1% of all goals.

Special teams can play a massive role in the outcome of games. They have the highest rate of goals/minutes played, but do they matter that much? Let’s look at the power play first.

I ranked them by PPGD (power play goal differential, which is PP goals minus shorthanded goals allowed). Teams like Detroit and Pittsburgh were good on the power play but struggled at 5×5. There were 11 playoff teams in the top half of the league, similar to SF% and xGF%. But we need to include penalty kill numbers to get a better overall view of special teams.

The Rangers led the NHL with 18 shorthanded goals, which boosted them up to second in best PK goal differential, and there were 12 playoff teams in the upper half of SHGD, including 12 in the top 14.

Now, let’s look at which teams had the best special teams’ differential between the PP and PK. In theory, it would be more important than a good PP or a good PK, as it combines both.

Combined special teams had 13 teams in the top half, although Toronto and Montreal were tied for 15th at only +1. Minnesota (-11) and Montreal (-18) were the only teams that made the playoffs with a negative goal differential (all situations). Minnesota was -13 on special teams and -7 at 5×5 but still managed to make the playoffs. But when you dig into their season, their 11 worst losses combined for them to be -52, while their biggest margins of wins in 11 games had them +38. They simply got blown out in games more often than they blew teams out. They lost by six goals twice, five goals (4x) and four goals (5x), while they won by four goals (5x) and three goals (6x).

There are rare teams that, when they lose, they lose bigger and more often than they win by a large margin. Those teams are outliers, though, for the most part. And last year, Columbus was that team. The Blue Jackets led the NHL in 5×5 goals with 201, which was 11 more than second-place Washington. The Blue Jackets allowed 179 goals 5×5, which had them +22 at 5×5. However, they were -22 in all other situations and ended up even with 267-267 in actual goals for and against (not including SO goals). Their biggest margins of victory (4+ goals) had them +49, and in their worst 11 losses (4+ goals), they were -45. So pretty even.

It was the Blue Jackets’ lackluster special teams that cost them. Their PP was only 19.5% and their PK was 77% and they were -12 in STGD. They missed the playoffs by two points. They had the same win total as Montreal (40) but had two more regulation losses. It is odd how they were so good at scoring 5×5 but struggled on the man advantage.

I don’t think there is one stat that stands out as the “guarantees you success” statistic. Special teams goal differential had playoff teams holding 11 of the 12 top spots. Last season, teams averaged 8:57 of total ice time on special teams/GP, so having a significant STGD in such a small period of time was hugely beneficial.

New Jersey was +24 in 8:54 of special teams time/GP. They were -3 in 49:05 of 5×5 time/GP. That is why they made the playoffs, and Columbus with the Devils finishing two points ahead.

In the West, Calgary tied St. Louis with 96 points but missed the playoffs on a tiebreaker as the Blues had one more regulation win and three more total victories. The Blues scored 30 more goals than Calgary. They scored 35 more at 5×5, while Calgary allowed six fewer goals 5×5. The Flames’ struggles in overtime likely cost them. The Flames were a league-worst -7 in overtime, getting outscored 12-5, while the Blues outscored teams 8-6. Had the Flames managed to win one more OT game to gain an extra point, they’d have gotten in. Wild.

Having good special teams helps, but so does outshooting teams at 5×5, which ultimately leads to you creating more than you give up.

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