The Edmonton Oilers have a reputation as a high-flying, offensive juggernaut that can outscore defensive deficiencies or goaltending issues.

Last season, that really wasn’t the case.

After finishing top five in goals per game in both 2022-23 and 2023-24, the Oilers finished 11th in scoring. What drove the drop-off?

They still generated chances. At 5v5 they led the league in shots/60, ranked third in scoring chances/60, and sat second in expected goals/60. Despite that, they were 27th in 5v5 shooting percentage at just 7.95 percent. In the two previous years, they were at 8.81 percent (15th) and 9.14 percent (8th).

It is a small dip, but at 5v5 alone, they put 2,113 shots on goal. If they had converted just one percent more, that is roughly 20 additional goals, which would have moved them from 14th to 3rd in 5v5 goals.

Were they a little unlucky offensively? Yes.

Connor McDavid, Adam Henrique, Kasperi Kapanen, Vasily Podkolzin, and Viktor Arvidsson all shot at least one percent below their career averages. Given how much time those players spent in the top six, it is easy to see why 5v5 production sagged.

Evan Bouchard’s all-situations shooting percentage also fell 2.2 points year over year, which contributed to a dip on the power play. The team finished 14th in power-play goals, and if Bouchard had matched his 2023-24 total of eight, they would have cracked the top ten. They also finished 12th in power-play percentage, their first time outside the top ten since 2017-18.

Despite reaching a second straight Stanley Cup Final, the Oilers were pretty average in the regular season. The playoff run can make you forget they finished only five points ahead of the ninth-place Flames.

Can they be a dominant regular-season force in 2025-26? There is a path.

Before the offence, goaltending is a big piece of any 110-plus point season. Three teams hit that mark last year, and the Oilers have not since 1985-86. When they posted 109 points in 2022-23, Stuart Skinner started 48 games with a .914 save percentage.

They need their starter to bounce back. It may sound optimistic given his last 18 months, but the Oilers are clearly giving Skinner a chance to rebound from 2024-25. That is the starting point. If they want to finish higher, their goalie has to steal more games.

The second piece is getting unexpected production.

As noted, several players were both unlucky and below their career norms. Corey Perry was the only skater who truly exceeded expectations with 19 goals. No one else had what you would call a career year, although Leon Draisaitl’s 52 were impressive.

There are candidates to pop. Podkolzin is near the top of the list for me, and newcomer Andrew Mangiapane has a good chance to give the Oilers more offence from that spot than they got last year. Jeff Skinner and Viktor Arvidsson should help as well. Rookies Ike Howard and Matt Savoie are also expected to get every opportunity to land top-six roles.

As a group, the forwards were both unlucky and unproductive at 5v5 and on the power play. You cannot predict luck, but there are habits and details the team can control to tilt things back their way.

I would love to see Podkolzin shoot more. When he let it rip last year, he proved he can beat goalies from distance.

If he is going to keep getting looks in the top six, he needs to shoot more.

I also want to see the team give at least one of Savoie or Howard an extended look with either Draisaitl or McDavid. Do not drop them into the bottom six at the first sign of struggle. Let them play through it and see if they can build chemistry with one of the Oilers’ two superstar centres.

I have always said this hurt them with Dylan Holloway a few years ago. He won a top-six job out of camp and was basically benched halfway through the first game of the season. The NHL is not a developmental league, but you can still show patience with young players.

This chemistry conversation applies to Andrew Mangiapane as well.

For the offence to bounce back to an elite level next season, we also need to talk about Connor McDavid.

There is no such thing as a bad season for McDavid. He is a lock for 100 points and remains the most electrifying player on the planet. The 2024-25 season was not kind to the Oilers’ captain, though. He missed 15 games with an injury, failed to hit 30 goals for the first time since his rookie year, and took fewer shots than in any of his previous eight seasons.

If the Oilers want their offence back in the league’s top ten, having McDavid tap into his 2022-23 form when he scored 64 would go a long way.

He shot the puck a ton that year at all strengths, as you can see in the chart below (numbers via Natural Stat Trick).

If you watched that season, you saw how motivated he was to shoot the puck, and you saw how it opened up other options because teams had to respect that #97 was always willing to let it fly. That mindset would really help the power play.

My list of things that need to happen for the Oilers to be regular-season juggernauts: good goaltending, one or two career years from their forwards, and a strong statistical rebound from Connor McDavid.

They didn’t get any of those last year, but it’s the beginning of September, and if there’s ever a time to be optimistic, it’s now.

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