It is not a stretch to say that tonight’s game between Team Canada and Team USA is one of the most highly anticipated hockey games this century. The rivalry between both the players and the fans could not be turned up any more than it is right now and while there may not be an Olympic gold medal on the line tonight, the stakes are very, very high.
TD Garden in Boston is going to be absolutely electric tonight and just based on what I’ve seen from walking around downtown Boston earlier this morning, there will be a good contingency of Canadian hockey fans in the building tonight.
The reaction from this crowd, regardless of who scores, is going to be fascinating.
This could very well go down as one of the biggest games in the history of the sport considering the number of eyeballs that will be on it. After 4.4 million Americans watched the game last Saturday between these two, experts are saying that they expect at least 10 million to tune into tonight’s rematch.
That is massive for the growth of the sport.
Canada’s team will be looking to prove that it is still their sport, and to do that, they need to win tonight. Here are three factors that I believe will decide tonight’s hockey game.
The Health Factor
I really don’t think this has been talked about enough.
Last Saturday, Charlie McAvoy played a pivotal role in shutting down Canada’s high-flying offence and tonight, he won’t be in the lineup. That is a massive loss and yes, Jake Sanderson is a fine replacement and I love the way he skates, but he’s not McAvoy.
The good news for Team USA is that all three of Matthew Tkachuk, Brady Tkachuk, and Auston Matthews will all be in the lineup after being questionable at different points throughout the week.
They’ll play, but they clearly aren’t at 100%, which could be an advantage for Team Canada. Will the Tkachuk brothers be running around at the same pace that they were last weekend? We’ll see.
On top of that, Canada’s offence only produced one goal vs Team USA and Connor Hellebuyck last Saturday but tonight, they get Cale Makar back in the lineup. His ability to move the puck up-ice should absolutely help Canada’s star forwards generate more off the rush, which brings me to my next point.
The Star Factor
This sounds obvious, but this game will be defined by the strengths of each team’s superstars.
For Team USA, if they can find a way to make life easy on Connor Hellebuyck, then they should win this game. Hellebuyck has yet to allow a goal on a “medium danger” chance yet in this tournament. If the USA’s blueline can keep Canada to the outside more often than not, then Hellebuyck should be able to keep pucks out of the net.
For Canada, their offensive attack needs to be way more dangerous than it was last Saturday.
They were hesitant down low, weren’t pulling the trigger quick enough when they had chances in dangerous areas, and just weren’t willing to try and create chaos in the USA zone. They need to be much, much sharper.
So far in this tournament, the USA has averaged ten high-danger chances per game and Canada has averaged eight. The Canadians need to create more high-danger looks than the opposition tonight.
It starts with McDavid, MacKinnon, Crosby and Makar. If those four can start rolling and get the Americans scrambling then the rest of the lineup should hopefully be able to chip in something as well.
Canada’s Depth
I’ve been saying for the last few days, but Canada needs to score four goals to win tonight. I think the big guns can contribute two or three, but someone in the bottom-six is likely going to need to have a big moment tonight.
Brad Marchand has not looked like his usual self the last two games and against the USA last Saturday night, he was very quiet. He wasn’t really generating any offence and he wasn’t doing much to get under the skin of Team USA.
I would love to see him have a big game in front of the Bruins crowd in Boston.
I’m also going to be looking at Mitch Marner. He had a big moment with the overtime winner against Sweden to open the tournament but he really hasn’t had a good game yet. He has the skill to create offensive looks out of thin air, if he can do that just once tonight and set up a goal, then it will be a massive difference-maker for Team Canada.
Again, there is a lot on the line this evening.
If Canada wins, then they silence the narratives about the USA being the new hockey powerhouse.
If Canada can’t win a game in which the USA is missing two of their best defensemen and they end up going 0-2 against their rivals then we’re going to be having some very interesting conversations ahead of the 2026 Winter Olympics.
