Before I get even more hate mail (reminder to send it all to baggedmilk@oilersnation.com), please note that I like Brandon Davidson as much as all of you. That’s the problem here. We all like Davidson. Numbers guys, eye-ball test guys, fans, and scouts all like Davidson. In fact, we’ve heard it on multiple occasions that Brandon Davidson is the most likely player the Oilers will lose in the upcoming expansion draft.

It makes sense for the Las Vegas Golden Knights to select Davidson from the Oilers if they don’t get three better left handed defenders somewhere else. Davidson will be a cheap, 25-year-old, third pairing player with awesome character and enough upside to push for bigger minutes. He’s exactly what that organization will want and will probably have trade value down the road too. He’s not garbage.

Now I can make an argument for the Golden Knights to take Pouliot, and I can argue for them to take Fayne or Reinhart, but it still stands that the most likely player plucked from the Oilers roster will be the kid who kicked cancer’s ass and proved everybody wrong at every level of hockey he’s ever played.

So let’s start from the assumption that after this season the Oilers will lose Brandon Davidson for absolutely nothing.

If it’s the case and Davidson is a goner, then it’s time to consider very strongly the idea that the team ought to build a trade package around him right now. It is better to cash in Davidson’s value for a short term rental player if that rental player can make a bigger impact in the next 3-4 months than Davidson can from the third pairing.

Although he played over 19 minutes per game a year ago, Brandon Davidson is averaging just 14:29 this year after 14 games. The Oilers are a significantly stronger club down the left side than they have been in the past with a healthy Klefbom, Sekera, Davidson, Russell, and Nurse. Now, Nurse is injured and Russell has been flipped to the right side as a left shot, but still the team is in a position where they can absorb Davidson’s loss. It’s part of why he won’t be protected in expansion.

Now let’s combine the assumption that the Oilers will lose Davidson for nothing anyway with the constant swirling rumours that the Blues may move a player like Shattenkirk. St Louis may opt not to move Shattenkirk at all since they are in a dogfight for the third spot in the Central as well as the final wildcard spot, but losing a player for nothing leaves a rotten taste in the mouth.

If Edmonton packages Brandon Davidson, a first round pick (conditional upon Shattenkirk re-signing with the Oilers) and potentially another young player (Reinhart?), is that a group of assets that can pry Shattenkirk out of St Louis and onto the Oilers? And, importantly, if Shattenkirk doesn’t re-sign with the Oilers, are these assets that the Oilers can feel comfortable losing?

The Blues are only going to make the best possible deal for their club. If another team can offer more for a rental UFA who reportedly wants to become a New York Ranger, then the Oilers will continue along the way they have been and risk losing Davidson at the end of the year anyway. Even if the Oilers COULD make a deal centered around Davidson and their first round pick (conditional) they couldn’t re-sign Shattenkirk (or any other defender) until after expansion because they want to use the 7-3-1 protection format. Trading for a player then making him available in expansion is just wasting assets.

The focus here is trading Davidson for a rental who could impact the game for three months more than Davidson himself can. Long-term implications are a waste of time to worry about since the Oilers will most likely not have Davidson long term. It could be for Shattenkirk or any other UFA defender capable of playing in Edmonton’s top 4. It could be for a top 9 RW whom the Oilers can use with the seventh protection spot or who is also a UFA. Any of these players or players like them will surely play a bigger role than Davidson this year.

Imagine, for a moment, an Oiler defense where Sekera plays with a natural right handed defender and Kris Russell goes back to playing his natural left side. How much stronger would this look?

Sekera Shattenkirk

Klefbom Larsson

Russell Benning

There’s an added benefit which is probably a little cynical. If Davidson is dealt at or before the trade deadline then the Golden Knights will be forced to choose someone else. If the expansion franchise has a strong analytics voice somewhere then that argument I said I could make for Pouliot might be made by their internal analytics person. Frankly, Edmonton is in a pretty good spot where the only player exposed to expansion that everybody likes was going to be Davidson. No matter who gets picked outside of the young rearguard, the Oilers can benefit one way or another.

If they pick Pouliot or Fayne then that’s money off the cap the Oilers can better use elsewhere. If they pick Reinhart then that’s one less bad decision Chiarelli has to own. There really aren’t many realistic other choices for the Golden Knights to make unless someone really loves Kassian’s upside. Like I mentioned before, only Davidson carries real value with not many downsides for the expansion franchise. So trade him now and get what you can for him.