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Losing in the first round may not be the worst outcome for the Oilers
Edmonton Oilers Anaheim Ducks
Photo credit: Perry Nelson-Imagn Images
Ryley Delaney
Apr 28, 2026, 11:00 EDTUpdated: Apr 28, 2026, 11:41 EDT
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The Edmonton Oilers are on the brink of elimination.
After back-to-back Stanley Cup appearances, and three Western Conference Finals in four years, there’s no room for error in their first-round matchup against the Anaheim Ducks. They took an early series lead thanks to Kasperi Kapanen’s late heroics in Game 1, but have lost the last three games to go down 3-1 in the series.
To make matters worse, they haven’t looked good either. Their best period of the series came in Game 1’s first period, holding the Ducks to just four shots while amassing 14 of their own. It also happened to be the closest they’ve looked this season to be an actual Stanley Cup contender.
Simply put, an early exit wouldn’t be the worst-case scenario for the Oilers.
See, the Oilers have played a lot of hockey, especially in the past two years. On top of the 82-game regular season, the Oilers have played an additional 47 games, so a little over two and a half seasons’ worth of games since the start of the 2023-24 season.
Then you pair that with the fact that it looks like their starts aren’t 100 per cent. In Game 2,  captain Connor McDavid rolled his ankle and was hobbled. Leon Draisaitl missed the final 14 games of the season, and Zach Hyman missed games down the stretch. Their centre depth has also been eviscerated.
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Before the end of the regular season, Jason Dickinson took a slap shot off the leg and missed the remainder of the regular season. He returned for Game 1, scoring twice in the Oilers’ victory, but missed Games 2 and 3. Dickinson made an immediate impact in Game 4, picking up an assist.
Adam Henrique, as much as his role has changed since the Oilers acquired him ahead of the 2024 trade deadline, is still a crucial penalty killer. The veteran went down with an injury in the first period in Game 1 and hasn’t returned. In turn, the Oilers’ penalty kill is sitting at a league-worst 50 per cent.
Those are just the injuries or suspected injuries that we know about. Every team in the postseason faces injuries, but when a team’s three best forwards are dealing with something, a team isn’t going to go very far.
Let’s say that the Oilers win their next four games. Is winning the Cup even realistic in 2026? Honestly, probably not. There’s a solid chance that they’ll run into the much younger Utah Mammoth, which will cause the same problems that they’re facing with the Ducks. Then they’ll have to face one of the Colorado Avalanche, Minnesota Wild, or Dallas Stars. That doesn’t even mention the other four wins they’d need.
On the other hand, losing in the first round would give the Oilers ample time to rest prepping for next season. Regroup, heal up, and come out swinging to start the season. Though, that does run some risk as well given the fact Connor McDavid wants to win a Stanley Cup.

But what about McDavid’s two-year contract?

McDavid is currently in his prime, turning 29 years old earlier this season. He’ll still be an excellent player in his 30s, but at some point in the relatively close future, McDavid will no longer be the best player in the league. How many more cracks will he have a chance at winning the Cup, especially if he stays with the Oilers?
Really, everything comes down to the 2026-27 season. Before the start of the season, McDavid signed an incredibly team-friendly contract, a two-year deal worth just $12.5 million. That gives the Oilers loads of cap space this off-season.
It goes without saying that whether the Oilers overcome the 3-1 deficit and go on a deep run or are bounced early by the Ducks, they need to nail the off-season. Puckpedia projects the Oilers to have a little under $16.5 million in cap space with their core locked up coming into the off-season.
Their bottom six will be an area that they need to address. Henrique, Dickinson, Curtis Lazar, Kapanen, and Max Jones are all soon-to-be unrestricted free agents. Josh Samanski could realistically fill one of the bottom six centre spots, but they’ll need to find another one through trade or free agency.
Jack Roslovic is also a pending UFA, but Ike Howard is a good option to be an internal replacement for the middle-six. On the back end, Connor Murphy is the lone defenceman who isn’t locked up beyond June 30th.
But the Oilers’ biggest need is what they’ve sought for nearly a decade, an elite starting goaltender. In December, the Oilers sent Stuart Skinner, Brett Kulak, and a second in 2029 to the Pittsburgh Penguins for Tristan Jarry. That hasn’t worked out well for the Oilers, both in terms of on ice results and adding additional cap to the books. Connor Ingram is also set to become a free agent at the end of the season.
Finding that goalie is easier said than done, as there are only a finite number of elite goaltenders in the National Hockey League. That said, it’s what the Oilers need to do to bring the Cup back to Canada.
Ryley Delaney is a Nation Network writer for Oilersnation, FlamesNation, and Blue Jays Nation. Follow her on Twitter @Ryley__Delaney.

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