Now, on-ice stats like RAPM capture the “what” of a player’s results. We also need to ask “why” and “how” Klingberg achieved those results in the first place, to see if they can potentially change in a different environment. To deepen our analysis, we can also use microstats, which are essentially detailed statistics measuring specific actions or events, such as zone entries and zone exits. Using Corey Sznajder’s microstat tracking project (I highly recommend checking it out), here is a brief summary of Klingberg’s microstats in his three most recent seasons:

If used correctly, there is a legitimate possibility this strategy could work well. I could easily see Klingberg be an upgrade on Stecher and provide value in a purely offensive rule.

That being said, are there still risks to this deployment? Absolutely. Even with the most optimal deployment possible, Nurse – Klingberg could remain vulnerable to ill-advised pinches or turnovers in the OZ leading to a quality chance the other way. Furthermore, there have been times this season when Ekholm – Bouchard played one shift, and Nurse – Kulak received the subsequent shift, causing Stecher – Emberson to occasionally play the next one; when they have, their results are not pretty.

In the scenario that Klingberg replaces Stecher, there may occasionally be shifts where either he’ll have to play his off-side with Emberson, or Emberson will be on his off-side trying to cover for Klingberg; either way, that thought is frightening. Of course, considering that Stecher – Emberson have not played a significant amount of time – they have only averaged around 2 minutes per game – a potential Klingberg – Emberson duo would likely not play substantial minutes. But, in the playoffs where the margin for error is razor-thin, a bad shift from Klingberg and Emberson could be the difference in a tight game.

Now technically, there is a fifth option, but it is dependent on Edmonton’s deadline plans. Ideally, regardless of how Klingberg plays, the Oilers should not be finished adding defenceman. They could still benefit from a defensively-minded depth left defenceman.

In the scenario that the Oilers acquire a 3LD, an 11 forward/7 defenceman setup could be perfect for the Oilers in the playoffs. Depending on the game state, they could play this 3LD or Klingberg more minutes. So, if the Oilers are in need of a goal, their bottom-six defensive pairs could be Nurse – Klingberg and Kulak – Emberson, but when they’re protecting a lead, they could shift to Nurse – Kulak and “3LD” – Emberson. This is another twist on the Kulak/Stecher rotation, but with a seventh defenceman, which adds even more flexibility and prevents them from being forced to play Klingberg – Emberson.

But again, it depends on what type of defenceman the Oilers add at the deadline, if they do at all.

All things considered, Klingberg’s potential success in Edmonton will be defined by the coaching staff’s deployment and expectations of him. If Knoblauch and Coffey are hoping that Klingberg can be the regular top-four defenceman that he was in 2019, it is likely that this signing will not turn out well. Klingberg’s defensive results have been abysmal for half a decade now, he’s 32, and he has not played an NHL game since November of 2023; while nothing is impossible, these factors make it highly improbable that Klingberg returns to his 2019 form. Unless his putrid defensive metrics were entirely the result of hip issues (not likely considering his track record and defensive style of play, as mentioned earlier), and his double hip resurfacing procedure miraculously returns his hips to what they were six years ago, Klingberg will be exposed in that role in the playoffs, especially if deployed in a full-time pairing next to Darnell Nurse.

But, if the coaching staff recognizes Klingberg’s defensive deficiencies, and deploys him in a modified version of the “Troy Stecher role,” there is a realistic possibility it could turn out well. If used correctly and put in a position that allows him to play to his strengths, Klingberg could an extremely valuable offensive asset for Edmonton’s forwards. There are many elements of his game that could complement McDavid and Draisaitl quite nicely, and he could be a huge offensive boost to Edmonton’s depth scoring as well.

At the very least, Klingberg will be an upgrade as a 7th defenceman option over Josh Brown. There’s not significant risk in this signing.

All-in-all, this is a fascinating bet by the Oilers management that could go many different ways. Only time will tell how it does.