In his 14th NHL season, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is having one of the least productive 5×5 performances of his career. He has 8-8-16 in 63 games.
Nugent-Hopkins, like many Oilers forwards, is having a below average season 5×5, and while he’s only played 52.5% of his 829 minutes with Connor McDavid, I wonder if head coach Kris Knoblauch should look at a different left winger, not named Leon Draisaitl, to skate on McDavid’s left wing.
As a team, the Oilers have been quite productive 5×5 sitting seventh in the NHL with 136 goals. However, when you dig into individual production, many of the forwards are having down years, and if it wasn’t for Leon Draisaitl, the Oilers’ 5×5 production would be much lower.
Draisaitl leads the NHL in 5×5 scoring with 49 points. He’s having the second-best season of his career. The only one better was in 2019-20 when he won the Hart Trophy and produced 22-34-56 in 71 games. He’s been excellent at both ends of the ice all season. Vasily Podkolzin is having his most productive season, points-wise, of his short career, but that is mainly due to assists. He only has six goals and has the lowest goals/60 rate of his three seasons.
Here’s a quick look at the rest of the Oilers forwards. Blue means they are having an above average year in goal scoring 5×5. Red means below career average…
- Corey Perry: 18th season. It ranks 3rd in G/60 and 12th in P/60.
- Jeff Skinner: 15th season. It ranks 10th in G/60 and 11th in P/60.
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: 14th season. It ranks 8th in G/60 and 12th in P/60.
- Adam Henrique: 14th season. It ranks 12th in G/60 and 13th in P/60.
- Connor McDavid: 10th season. It ranks 10th in G/60 and 10th in P/60.
- Viktor Arvidsson: 10th season. It ranks 8th in G/60 and 8th in P/60.
- Zach Hyman: 9th season. It ranks 3rd in G/60 and 8th in P/60.
- Mattias Janmark: 9th season. It ranks 9th in G/60 and 6th in P/60.
- Connor Brown: 8th season. It ranks 6th in G/60 and 4th in P/60.
- Kasperi Kapanen: 8th season. It ranks 6th in G/60 and 6th in P/60.
- Vasily Podzolzin: 3rd season. It ranks 3rd in G/60 and 1st in P/60.
Only three forwards are having an above average year scoring goals at 5×5 and one of them is 39-year-old Corey Perry. Great for him, but the rest aren’t even close to average. It is unrealistic to expect all the players to have career years, or even top three, but only three forwards being above their career average is stunning.
Jan 25, 2025; Edmonton, Alberta, CAN; Edmonton Oilers forward Jeff Skinner (53) celebrates after scoring a goal against the Buffalo Sabres at Rogers Place. Mandatory Credit: Perry Nelson-Imagn Images
TIME FOR A CHANGE?
Is now the time for Kris Knoblauch to consider a few changes? Edmonton needs more production from McDavid. He has set a very high bar, and 95% of the NHL would love to have his production this season, as he is still tied for 12th in 5×5 points, however, he is 50th in goals among forwards. He needs to shoot more, but maybe a new winger might also help.
It is interesting to note the difference in his numbers with and without Nugent-Hopkins.
McDavid has logged 1015 TOI at 5×5. He’s played 435 minutes with RNH.
With RNH they’ve outscored teams 20-19. McDavid has scored six goals and nine assists. They have a 58SF% and a 2.75 GF/60 and 2.62 GA/60.
In his 580 minutes away from RNH he’s been outscored 36-32. McDavid has scored seven goals and 16 assists. He has a 58SF% and a 3.31 GF/60 and a 3.72 GA/60.
McDavid has scored more away from RNH but also allowed more goals. His numbers break down like this…
- In 435 minutes with RNH, outscoring teams 20-to-19, xGF-xGA of 21.9-to-16.3
- In 374 minutes with Draisaitl, outscoring teams 26-to-18, xGF-xGA of 26-to-14.
- In 206 minutes without either, he has been outscored 18-to-6, xGF-xGA of 9-to-10.2.
His actual goals for scored compared to expected are 20 to 21.9 with RNH and 26 and 26 with Draisaitl. Without them, actual goals are 6-to-9 expected. RNH isn’t having a productive season.
OPTIONS TO PLAY WITH MCDAVID…
Adam Henrique
Henrique played 26 minutes last year in the regular season with McDavid. They outscored opponents 6-1 and outshot them 17-12. They did play 61 minutes in the playoffs and were 3-3 in goals and were outshot 31-27.
Henrique has struggled to find his offensive touch this season. Maybe he would benefit from a look alongside McDavid, while RNH would centre the third line. Henrique and McDavid have only played 10 minutes together this season, but did outscore the opposition 1-0 while the shots were 3-3.
This change makes the most sense because both RNH and Henrique can play centre or the wing. The one challenge is that Henrique is better on faceoffs, but at even strength this season RNH is 161-156 (50.7%) while Henrique is 55.9% (309-244).
Jeff Skinner
Skinner and McDavid have played 64:52 together. It didn’t go well. They were outscored 8-1 and outshot 38-31. Granted most of those minutes came in October when the Oilers were still grieving losing in the Cup Final. I’m not sure Skinner is a good complement for McDavid. He is a shooter, but he likes to hold onto the puck and isn’t as quick or as good of a passer as RNH, especially coming out of the defensive zone where McDavid needs to be the puck carrier. I don’t see Knoblauch doing it.
Corey Perry
Perry and McDavid have played 43 minutes together (without Draisaitl) and are 3-3 in goals and were outshot 25-23. I love Perry’s season, but I don’t see him being the long-term answer as he just can’t log that many minutes. Spot duty with Perry makes more sense than a regular shift.
Kasperi Kapanen
Kapanen has played 70 minutes with McDavid (without Draisaitl), and they are 4-3 in goals and outshot the opposition 39-31. Kapanen is a very good skater, and he has a bomb of a shot. He is a right shot, however, so not a natural left winger. But he’s played left wing, right wing and centre this year.
Connor McDavid © James Guillory-Imagn Images
WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?
Henrique would be my first choice, but I’d have Kapanen ahead of Skinner and Perry. Moving him up would then have RNH-Henrique-Brown as a third line with Janmark playing the middle on the fourth line with Perry and Jones.
Trent Frederic and Evander Kane could be options later on, but Frederic is a few weeks away and Kane won’t be available until the playoffs. So that won’t fix the issue today.
Knoblauch needs to find a solution. It isn’t ideal to have to load up McDavid with Draisaitl all the time. The team needs to find a left winger who can produce, but also not leak chances against, while playing with McDavid. They have 18 regular season games remaining, so why not try Henrique or Kapanen for a few games? He can always go back to RNH-McDavid-Hyman, but for now that line needs a boost.
Last season they played 467 minutes together. They outshot opponents 339-191 (63.9SF%) and outscored them 34-20. Their xGF was 34 and their xGA was 18.3.
This season they’ve logged 314 minutes as a trio and have outshot teams 188-123 (60.4SF%), outscored them 14-12 and their xGF is 17.5 and their xGA is 11.7.
They had a 4.37 GF/60 last year while it is 2.67/60 this year. Their xGF/60 is 3.35 this year and was 4.39 last year. They aren’t finishing as well, so a change for a few games won’t hurt.
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