The Edmonton Oilers are a couple of days removed from an embarrassing beatdown by the Penguins, and tonight’s game feels like it should come with a bit of a lecture. Not the yelling kind. Not the dramatic kind. Just a quiet, arms-crossed big-dad disappointment that comes when you know a team is capable of more than what it’s been showing. The Oilers dropped their last two games in horrific fashion, not because they were unlucky, but because they didn’t look particularly interested in playing winning hockey. When that happens, no one around here is going to give you sympathy. You get scrutiny, and deservedly so.

The most frustrating part about the Oilers being this bad at this point in the season is that there are numbers that suggest they should be doing better than what we’re getting. Edmonton sits at 25-19-8, scores 3.33 goals per game, controls play north of 50 percent in both Corsi and expected goals, and gives up fewer shots than they take. This is not a bad team. This is a broken team. This is a team that, from my side of the TV screen, has been going through the motions and paying for it on the scoreboard. You expect better from a group that should know exactly what it takes by now, and watching this mess is beyond annoying at this point.

The Washington Capitals roll into town at 25-21-6, right in the same neighbourhood in the standings, but are really struggling to put wins on the board right now. They’ve only won four of the 12 games they’ve played in January, including the 3-1 dub they picked up in Calgary last night. But even though Washington is a bit of a mess lately, there’s a catch. Though these two teams score score at a similar rate, the Caps do tend to defend better on average, and are getting strong goaltending, as shown by a .919 team save percentage. That said, they are not playing anything close to their best hockey right now, and I see this as the perfect opportunity for the Oilers to get this train back on the rails.

Special teams are still an area where the Oilers should feel confident, assuming the boys actually show up ready to work. Edmonton’s power play continues to hum along at 32.2 percent, while Washington’s sits at 16.7. The penalty kills are closer, but the Oilers still hold a slight edge. If this game turns into a special teams battle, that’s an advantage Edmonton should be able to lean on. The key word there is should. The special teams advantage only matters if the effort matches the opportunity. But if Edmonton is going to earn those opportunities, it has to start with a whole lot more effort at 5v5, especially against a team that played the night before.

In the end, the most important thing I’m looking for isn’t just that the Oilers find a way to win, but that they look like they deserve the two points. I don’t even care if they lose, provided that the effort is there and they look like they actually want to be playing hockey. We haven’t seen that in the last two games. This isn’t about proving anything to anyone, but reminding themselves who they’re supposed to be. The Oilers are at home, playing a team on the second half of a back-to-back, and there’s no hiding from the effort level in your own building. This doesn’t need to be perfect hockey. It just needs to be honest hockey. Show up. Compete. Care.

Let’s see what the numbers say…

Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid – Hyman
Podkolzin – Draisaitl – Mangiapane
Howard – Roslovic – Savoie
Frederic – Lazar – Janmark

Ekholm – Bouchard
Nurse – Emberson
Walman – Stastney

Ingram

Kris Knoblauch went back to some classic line combos for Saturday’s game, with the exception of having Andrew Mangiapane up on the second line. We all know that this hasn’t been the Bread Man’s year, but I’m hopeful that being up with Draisaitl could help him make something happen in this revenge game. Looking in net, Connor Ingram is getting the start and another opportunity to show that he can not only be a competent backup, but maybe even challenge Tristan Jarry for the starter’s job.

McMichael – Strome – Leonard
Protas – Sourdif – Wilson
Ovechkin – Dowd – Frank
Duhaime – Lapierre – Beauvillier

Fehervary – Carlson
Chychrun??? – Roy
Sandin – Van Riemsdyk

Lindgren

With the Capitals playing last night, I haven’t seen any updates on their line combos, aside from Jacob Chychrun being day-to-day. Considering the guy has 18 goals on the season, not having him in the Capitals’ lineup would be a nice bonus for an Oilers team trying to get back in the win column. That said, we can’t expect dubs just because the other team is/could be missing pieces.

Game Day Prediction: Oilers score first. Oilers score on the power play. Oilers win 4-2 with the empty-netter.

Obvious Game Day Prediction: Connor McDavid called himself out after the loss to Pittsburgh, and that has me thinking (and betting) on a two-point night for the captain.

Not-So-Obvious Game Day Prediction: You didn’t expect a two-goal game from Andrew Mangiapane, but it’s going to happen. Revenge game success. LFG.