This article is the fourth and final of a four-part series where I cover trade targets for the Edmonton Oilers at the 2025 Trade Deadline.
In the first article, I analyzed top-six winger targets, such as Brock Nelson and Alex Tuch. In the second article, I covered middle-six and depth forwards, such as Ryan Donato and Trent Frederic. In the third article, I analyzed defenceman options, including Mike Matheson, Jamie Oleksiak and more.
Finally, I will now dive into goaltending options.
A few weeks back, I wrote a piece all about why I believe the Oilers would be making a significant gamble if they were to stick with their current goaltending tandem. For more detailed thoughts and the necessary statistical evidence, I would suggest reading through that entire article, but in summary, I strongly believe there are significant risks with running it back with the Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard tandem.
In the aggregate, Skinner’s results are fine, but the issue with him comes with his inconsistency and “streakiness.” On the one hand, we’ve seen instances where he has been excellent, such as his play during Edmonton’s 16-game win streak last season and his pivotal performance against the Dallas Stars in the 2024 Western Conference Finals. But, at the same time, we have also seen him nearly single-handedly drag the team down, such as his play at the beginning of last season and this season, alongside his disastrous play against the Canucks in Round 2.
I have always felt that Skinner works best as a “1A/1B” goalie in a tandem as opposed to a bonafide starting goalie. I strongly believe that the Oilers would maximize their chances of a Stanley Cup if they were to acquire a goalie of similar capability to Skinner, someone that can split the workload, reduce the pressure on Skinner, and act as a failsafe if Skinner were to struggle, which is a very distinct possibility given his awful results against playoff teams this year.
The body of evidence makes it highly doubtful that Calvin Pickard can be that guy. In the 15 games he has played against playoff teams in the past two seasons, Pickard holds a 0.889 SV%, allowing a full 6 goals more than expected. Sure, Pickard has proven to be a solid backup when playing against the bottom of the NHL, but not so much against the league’s best. Thus, the Oilers don’t necessarily need to upgrade on Skinner, especially considering that there isn’t exactly a huge list of starting goalies available; rather, it would be most wise and realistic to target an upgrade on Pickard.
The Oilers rank 6th in the NHL in goals per hour, top-two in skater defensive metrics, but 18th in goals saved above expected. Simply put, while they could definitely benefit from a top-six finisher or a top-four defenceman, their biggest area of improvement is in net.
With all of that in mind, let’s go through Edmonton’s potential goaltending trade options.
*All stats via EvolvingHockey and MoneyPuck unless stated otherwise, and all cap info via PuckPedia
John Gibson
John Gibson, a 31-year-old goaltender on the Anaheim Ducks, seems to be the most discussed goalie option amongst the Oilers fanbase, and for good reason.
This season, Gibson has a 0.915 SV% on an abysmal Ducks team, saving a full 13 goals above expected. For years, Gibson has been Anaheim’s primary starter, and has plenty of experience with a heavy workload. This is an athletic, explosive goalie that can single-handedly steal games, and could be exactly what Edmonton has always needed.
But, if we’re critiquing Skinner for inconsistency, it would be dishonest to not use that argument for Gibson as well. This is because, although Gibson is having an excellent season, that was not the case for every other year of his career. Here is a career timeline of Gibson’s GSAx (goals saved above expected) since 2015:
At the peak of his career, Gibson was objectively elite, arguably a top-three goalie in the league. But, that peak was well over half a decade ago, because from 2019-20 through 2022-23, Gibson produced a negative GSAx in each of those four seasons. In 2023-24, he managed a slight positive in GSAx, but nothing spectacular, and slightly worse than Pickard.
Here is a fascinating read by Jason Gregor where he discusses Gibson’s potential fit in Edmonton with Kevin Woodley of InGoal Magazine, who has access to much more detailed proprietary data that the rest of us don’t. According to Woodley, Gibson is a solid rush goaltender, an area that Skinner has struggled with in the past, but low slot line plays are a significant weakness in Gibson’s game that is worth noting. Ultimately, Gregor comes to the conclusion that Gibson is not an objective upgrade on Skinner, which is not a totally unreasonable stance based on the statistical evidence.
Perhaps these results are partially caused by lack of motivation, as Anaheim has been a bottom-feeder for quite some time. There is a possibility that, when playing behind a team with a genuine chance of winning something, Gibson steps up and becomes the consistently elite goaltender he was once. But, this theory is difficult to objectively prove, and with a $6.4M cap-hit for the next three seasons, Edmonton’s management must consider if this is a risk worth taking.
Less than two weeks back, there was a report from Elliotte Friedman that Gibson would be willing to waive his no-move-clause to come to Edmonton, but only has interest in doing so if he becomes the starter. In a perfect world, it could be a wise idea to run a tandem of Skinner and Gibson; if one of them were to struggle, the other would be a perfectly fine failsafe, and there would likely be less individual pressure for both of them. But, according to Friedman, that may not appeal to Gibson.
So, what would a Gibson trade look like? Would Skinner have to go the other way? A Gibson/Pickard tandem certainly has much more upside, and once again, Gibson has game-stealing potential that Skinner does not, but it holds risks of inconsistency just as a Skinner/Pickard tandem.
Ultimately, Gibson is the textbook definition of a high-risk, high-reward option. There’s real potential for him to be a modern Dwayne Roloson for the Oilers (hopefully without the injury!), and he could absolutely steal games for the Oilers en route to a Stanley Cup. But, with a high cap-hit and the possibility of Skinner being forced to go the other way, there is also a strong chance that this trade could be a flat-out disaster.
Karel Vejmelka
Karel Vejmelka is a 28-year-old goalie for the Utah Hockey Club. He’s an expiring UFA this summer, currently carrying a $2.7M cap hit.
At first glance, Vejmelka may not be a popular target. A quick Google search for his HockeyDB profile shows a goalie who never posted a SV% above 0.900 prior to this season. You may ask, how is this better than Calvin Pickard?
But, Vejmelka is a good example demonstrating the pitfalls of raw save percentage as a stat. SV% treats every shot – whether it be a clear-cut breakaway or a dump-in from the NZ that happens to land on net – as equal, and what this does is that it underrates goalies behind awful defences. In this case, Arizona/Utah has been among the league’s worst teams at preventing dangerous chances.
GSAx is far from perfect, but it accounts for the quality of every single shot, and at the very least, it is superior and more repeatable from team-to-team than SV%. And, what GSAx tells us is that Vejmelka has been a strong net positive at both even-strength and the penalty-kill throughout the past three seasons.
This season, in particular, Vejmelka ranks eighth in the NHL in goals saved above expected, well ahead of Skinner and even ahead of Gibson!
Now, the glaring weakness in Vejmelka’s game is high-danger shots. He’s outstanding at stopping mid-danger shots, but his struggles with HD shots is definitely worth noting for a cup-contending team. Still, at the very least, Vejmelka’s net results are a significant upgrade on Pickard, and he possesses a superior SV% and GSAx against playoff teams compared to both Pickard and Skinner.
All-in-all, the body of evidence strongly suggests that Vejmelka could fare well in a 50/50 tandem with Skinner, and would be a much better failsafe than Pickard if /when Skinner were to struggle.
Alex Lyon
Alex Lyon is a 32-year-old goalie on the Detroit Red Wings, carrying a $900,000 cap hit for this season.
The Red Wings are in the race for a wild card spot in the Eastern Conference, and could certainly be buyers at the deadline. But with eight games remaining until the TDL, that could certainly change, and they could be open to selling.
Detroit has goaltenders Alex Lyon, Cam Talbot, Ville Husso, Sebastian Cossa, and even Jack Campbell in their organization. Perhaps they would be open to trading one of them. If that were to be the case, I would take a long, hard look at Lyon.
If you are heavily concerned with Vejmelka’s results against high-danger shots, then you should be a big fan of Lyon, who ranks seventh in the entire NHL in high-danger SV% in the past three seasons. His MD and LD SV% are unimpressive, but both of them are higher than Pickard’s; overall, Lyon’s net GSAx is strong, and his PK GSAx in particular is outstanding.
Lyon seems to be the perfect backup/”1B” for a cup contender. If there is any chance that Detroit is willing to make him available for trade, the Oilers should be all over him.
Cam Talbot
Cam Talbot is another goalie for the Detroit Red Wings. He is 37 years old and carries a $2.5M cap hit for this season and the next.
The vast majority of Oilers fans should vividly remember Talbot’s tenure in Edmonton, particularly the 2016-17 season when the Oilers finally broke their playoff drought and Talbot set an Oilers record for most wins in a season, passing Grant Fuhr. However, his tenure in Edmonton ended on a low note, ultimately getting traded a month after the Peter Chiarelli firing.
If the Oilers are going for a Red Wings goalie, they should absolutely aim for Lyon, but if Detroit desires to keep him, Talbot is not a terrible backup plan. With a positive GSAx in each of the past three seasons, alongside valuable experience and familiarity with Edmonton’s leaders, he’s a decent option worth noting.
Jonathan Quick
Jonathan Quick is a 39-year-old goaltender on the New York Rangers, carrying a $1.3M cap-hit for this season. With the Rangers poised to miss the playoffs, Quick could be available for trade, and at age 39, it’s not as if he’s an invaluable asset for them.
Now, Quick’s raw results on the graphic above look subpar, but it’s primarily brought down by a terrible season in Los Angeles in 2022-23. With the Rangers, Quick has been a fantastic backup and has been amongst the best goalies in the league at stopping high-danger chances.
A 39-year-old Quick is not the most enticing option, but with strong results in his past two seasons, combined with cup experience, he can absolutely be an upgrade over Pickard at the very least.
Final Thoughts
The Oilers seem to have four clear options here.
The first option is to run it back with Skinner and Pickard. In my opinion, this is the worst of their three options, and as discussed in detail above, carries great risk.
The second option is to trade for John Gibson as a tandem partner for Skinner. This may be their best overall option and the one with the highest chance of success, but unfortunately, it also seems to be the least realistic given that Gibson seems to want to be the clear-cut starter on his team.
The third option is to trade Skinner in a package for Gibson and establish Gibson as Edmonton’s starter. This is definitely the most high-risk, high-reward option. Perhaps behind a cup contender, Gibson becomes more motivated and turns into the elite, game-stealing goalie he once was, but there’s an equally high chance that the trade just winds up being a disaster for the team.
Finally, the fourth option is to trade for an upgrade on Calvin Pickard, and there are a variety of options available for this, such as Karel Vejmelka, Alex Lyon, Cam Talbot, and Jonathan Quick. This is probably their safest option, and the one that I most strongly support.
Realistically, it seems most likely that the Oilers will simply stick with their current tandem. But perhaps the organization’s thought process has truly changed, and they end up going for the goaltending upgrade. I sincerely hope they do.
That concludes my 2025 Trade Deadline targets series for the Oilers. Thanks for following along! Only time will tell what Edmonton’s management ultimately decides is best for this team.
Find me on Twitter (@NHL_Sid)
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