NHL Betting Preview (March 23rd): Oilers at Maple Leafs Odds

Photo credit:Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

1 month ago

Edmonton begins its trek through Canada on Saturday in Toronto in a marquee matchup with the Maple Leafs. This article will break down the odds and trends that make Hockey Night in Canada’s marquee game so interesting, from a betting perspective.

Oilers at Maple Leafs Odds

Edmonton Oilers Moneyline Odds: -130
Toronto Maple Leafs Moneyline Odds: +110
Puck Line Odds: Oilers -1.5 (+165), Maple Leafs +1.5 (-225)
Game Total: 6.5 goals (over -135, under +110)

All odds courtesy of Betway.

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Last Matchup

Toronto visited Edmonton back on Jan. 16th and led the game 2-0 early in the second period, but the Oilers won the game 4-2 after scoring four unanswered goals on goaltender Martin Jones in the final 30 minutes. Edmonton outshot Toronto 32-27. Evan Bouchard had a goal and assist, and so did Ryan McLeod. Leon Draisaitl also had a goal on three shots, while Connor McDavid had just one assist despite registering five shots on goal. Stuart Skinner made 25 saves in the win.

Check out Daily Faceoff to get updates regarding the line combinations and goaltenders for Saturday’s matchup.

Handicapping the Oilers (42-25 SU, 32-35 ATS, 28-36 O/U)

The Oilers have been road favourites in all but five games, but typically, their odds are much higher. Edmonton’s -130 moneyline odds imply that they have a 56.5 percent chance of winning the game. So, in order for the Oilers to be a value bet, a bettor should have reason to believe they’ll win the game more often than the odds suggest. Not to mention, the odds have already moved from -120 to -135 at a lot of sportsbooks, which means the best value on Edmonton isn’t as good as it could be.

Bettors will be more inclined to bet on Edmonton in a game where they are priced as a short favourite, rather than games where the score is expected to be lopsided. With that said, Edmonton’s record in road games where their moneyline odds are shorter than -170 is 12-9, which works out to around 57 percent. This is why Edmonton’s odds probably aren’t going to surpass -140, let alone -135. Besides, there’s a better way to find value in the visitors.

Handicapping the Maple Leafs (39-29 SU, 25-43 ATS, 37-29 O/U)

Per Evolving Hockey, Toronto ranks ninth in expected goals percentage at 5-on-5 over the last month, and they’ve outscored teams 3.72 – 3.09 in all situations. Of course, they played a variety of opponents, very few of which are as formidable as the Oilers. In fact, this will be just the fourth time Toronto has been an underdog on home ice and they have yet to win a game, going 0-3 straight up against Carolina, New York, and Boston.

Toronto’s home odds have been around -155, on average, which suggests that they should have won about 60 percent of those games. The Maple Leafs have won just 54.5 percent of their home games, though, and they have actually been outscored 3.25 – 3 in home games in which their moneyline odds were -140 or lower. In other words, the Maple Leafs home-ice advantage isn’t that strong.

The Maple Leafs have had two days off since their last game, compared to the one day off that the Oilers had, but Toronto will not have Mitch Marner in their lineup. And, to make matters worse, Tyler Bertuzzi’s availability is in question due to an illness. Ilya Samsonov is expected to start for the Maple Leafs.

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Team Betting Trends

The Maple Leafs are 4-6 straight up in their last 10 games as the underdog, but they’ve gone 7-3 in their last 10 home games. Toronto has only won nine home games in regulation this season, though, which is as many as the San Jose Sharks. Only the Montreal Canadiens and Anaheim Ducks have fewer regulation wins at home.
Toronto has played 33 home games and they have won 18 straight up, but more than half of their wins have been decided by one goal.
Edmonton is 7-3 in its last 10 games as the favourite, but just 4-6 against the puck line. The Oilers have gone 6-4 in their last 10 games away from Rogers Place.
Toronto is 6-4 to the over in its last 10 home games, while the Oilers are 4-6 to the under in their last 10 road games.

Player Prop Betting Trends

Both William Nyander (7) and John Tavares (6) have more goals than Auston Matthews (5) over the last 10 games. Nylander is listed at +130 to score a goal, while Tavares is listed at +175. Matthews, meanwhile, is listed at -118 to light the lamp.
Matthews has registered 4.1 shots per game over his last 10, which is about a full shot per game more than any other player on the team. His shots on goal prop is set at 4.5. The over is priced at +110, while the under is listed at -150.
Tyler Bertuzzi, who will likely be a game-time decision, has scored four goals and seven points over his last 10 games. Bertuzzi is listed at +225 to score an anytime goal.
Leon Draisaitl has been about as productive as Connor McDavid over the past 10 games, scoring six goals and 11 assists. McDavid has four goals and 14 assists during that stretch. Draisaitl is listed at +125 to score a goal while McDavid is priced at +115.

Best Bets for Oilersnation

Edmonton should beat Toronto, and the score should feature seven or more goals, according to the odds, but the first period handicap is intriguing. The Maple Leafs rank among the bottom-10 teams when it comes to scoring first period goals on home ice this season, while Edmonton ranks second in first period scoring as the road team. Bet on Edmonton to win the first period outright at +150 odds in the Win/Draw/Win market, as opposed to the first period spread (-0.5 goals) at +145.