Colton Dach’s name may not have drawn the most attention when the Edmonton Oilers traded for him and Jason Dickinson from the Chicago Blackhawks before last March’s trade deadline, but he certainly caught the attention of many once he donned the Oilers’ orange and blue silks.

During the final month of last season and into the playoffs, Oilers fans saw a glimpse of what the 6-foot-4, 218-pounder could do on a nightly basis, bringing physicality, compete and occasionally chipping in on the scoresheet. The Oilers also clearly liked what they saw, signing the hometown kid to a two-year extension carrying a $1.2 million average annual value (AAV) last July.

With many eager to see what the St. Albert, Alta., native can do over a full season in Oil Country, below we outline what a successful 2026-27 campaign looks like for him.

Dach played in 61 regular-season games in 2025-26, 53 with the Blackhawks and eight with the Oilers, producing at a 0.21 points-per-game (P/G) clip. If that scoring pace were maintained over a full 84-game season (the two additional games per season will take some getting used to), it would equate to roughly 18 points, which would be a reasonable baseline for Dach in 2026-27.

But my expectation point-wise for Dach this upcoming season is a tad higher, and I’d say anything above that 18-point pace would be viewed as a successful campaign for the rugged forward, and my projection for him in 2026-27 is 21 points (nine goals and 12 assists).

For some, 21 points might seem low for Dach, but I’m factoring in where he’ll slot into the lineup this season, which I feel will be mostly on the fourth line, but could move into a third-line role when injuries occur. A comparable would be Adam Henrique’s point total from last season. He played mostly fourth-line minutes and put up 15 points in 65 games (0.23 P/G), which would equate to about 19 points over a full season, around the range of my projection for Dach.

On the other hand, for those who think that point total may be too high for a player playing on the fourth line, another good comparable for Dach, points-wise, would be the Ottawa Senators’ Nick Cousins. Cousins averaged 11:25 per night last season, which is very close to what I expect Dach to average, and put up 23 points while playing mostly fourth-line minutes with some time on the third.

While Cousins has multiple 20-plus-point seasons under his belt, I have a feeling Dach will be motivated to prove he’s worth every penny of his new contract, get into a rhythm with his hometown team and reach the 20-point mark for the first time in his career.

Dach has good size at 6-foot-4 and 218 pounds, but he also has decent speed for a big man. According to NHL Edge data, his maximum skating speed last season was clocked at 22.58 MPH, ranking him in the 68th percentile in the NHL. In other words, the heavy winger can move around the ice pretty well, and he showed that with the number of hits he threw last season.

Dach threw 219 hits last season, which ranked 14th in the NHL and was just 23 fewer than Vasily Podkolzin. And if you sprinkle in the occasional fight here and there, with Dach having dropped the mitts five times in 2025-26, another part of a successful season would be seeing him establish himself as one of the most physical Oilers.

Additionally, we saw the tag team of Dach and Trent Frederic bring a nasty and physical edge down the playoff stretch last season, which earned them the ‘Bash Bros.’ nickname. If they can build on that and take that in-your-face style to an even higher level this season, it would give the Oilers’ bottom six a much-needed identity.

On a different note, while I made a successful-season point projection for the St. Albert native that hovers around 20 points, Dach’s game isn’t all about points anyway. Some people may like analytics, while others don’t, but the underlying metrics can help measure whether a player is driving play and tilting the ice in their team’s favour.

Dach certainly did that for the Oilers in his eight regular-season games last season. From early March through the end of the regular season, the 23-year-old ranked highly on the team in several metrics at five-on-five, according to Natural Stat Trick:

• 1st with a 60.28 Corsi For percentage (CF%)
• 1st with a 68.57 Scoring Chances For percentage (SCF%)
• 1st with a 74.96 Expected Goals For percentage (xGF%)
• 3rd with a 60.32 Shots For percentage (SF%)
• 3rd with a 57.14 Goals For percentage (GF%)
• 3rd with a 68.75 High-Danger Chances For percentage (HDCF%)

Ideally, you want your bottom-six players to chip in offensively, but if they aren’t producing a ton of points, they need to find other ways to make an impact. For Dach, that means using his size, throwing hits, creating energy and tilting the ice. If he carries over the strong analytics from his small sample size into 2026-27, that’s an indication that he’s doing all of the above, which would add up to a successful season for him, in my books.

And considering what I’ve gathered about head coach Mike Babcock’s coaching style and systems from speaking with longtime coach Perry Pearn, who coached against Babcock for many years, a game built around pace, pressure, and a strong forecheck could suit Dach quite well.

From what Oilers fans saw of Dach last season, he primarily played on the wing, but last July, Zach Laing reported that the 23-year-old had been working on his faceoffs and could possibly play down the middle, saying on the Jason Gregor Show:

That said, while putting up 20 points, being physical and driving play would be a superb 2026-27 campaign for Dach; if he can also show his versatility and prove he can fill in at centre when needed, it would be a huge bonus for the Oilers.

A 6-foot-4, 218-pounder who is an above-average skater and is free to use that size all over the ice would be a valuable and, quite frankly, kind of scary asset down the middle.

Furthermore, Dach ended last regular season on a very high note, recording his first-ever Gordie Howe Hat Trick against the Vancouver Canucks by scoring a goal, recording an assist and getting into a tussle with Elias Nils Pettersson.

In a way, that Gordie Howe Hat Trick was a pretty good snapshot of what a successful season could look like for Dach. A little offence, physicality and a ton of toughness, and if he can bring all three of those elements steadily in 2026-27, the Oilers will be getting a whole lot of value out of his $1.2 million AAV.

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