In their past eleven games, they hold a very strong record of 7-3-1. This has primarily been driven by excellent play from their superstars, as Connor McDavid has a whopping 27 points in his past 14 games, while Leon Draisaitl has 24. The Oilers have also received excellent production from their top-six wingers, with Zach Hyman, Vasily Podkolzin and Matt Savoie combining for 19 goals in that span.

However, there remains a crucial area of their game that has remained well below par all season long, and that is the team’s bottom-six.

Just to put into perspective how poorly Edmonton’s depth forwards have played, here is a look at their year-by-year 5-on-5 goal differential without McDavid and Draisaitl on-ice:

The Oilers have been out-scored 17 to 41 without McDavid and Draisaitl, equating to an absolutely appalling 29 percent goal share. To put that into perspective, the lowest the team’s goal share without McDavid and Draisaitl has ever been was 36 percent. Not even the teams iced during the Peter Chiarelli era had results as poorly as this.

Of course, we aren’t even halfway into the season, and one may argue that early-season results can often be wonky and that this could eventually stabilize by the end of the season. That is a very fair point, and I will say that I don’t expect the bottom-six to finish the year at just 29 percent. Nevertheless, 36 games remains a solid sample size, and a 17-to-41 goal differential can simply not be ignored.

So, what could (and should) the Oilers do to fix this? Here is a list of potential steps they could take that may have a meaningful impact.

*All stats via Natural Stat Trick

Start with scratching Trent Frederic and limiting Adam Henrique’s minutes

Let’s take a closer look and specifically dive into the individual performances of Edmonton’s bottom-six players. Here is a list of all forwards that have spent at least 150 TOI in the bottom-six this season (i.e. 150 TOI away from McDavid and Draisaitl), and how they have performed statistically:

Yeesh, that’s a lot of red.

The only forward who has spent over 150 TOI away from 97/29 with a goal share even near 50 percent is Matt Savoie, who has spent significant time in the top-six, particularly as of late. After him, every single depth forward had a bottom-six goal share below 40 percent. The expected goal percentage or the points per 60 doesn’t look too pretty either; it’s certainly not a great look that Mattias Janmark has been Edmonton’s most productive depth player.

Perhaps one bright spot is that, in limited minutes, Curtis Lazar has put up decent underlying numbers. He seems to be a perfectly fine 12/13F. Compared to the rest of the bottom-six, Janmark’s xG% and points per 60 are also decent, and although I have been critical of him in the past, I do think he deserves a spot in the current lineup on merit. However, that’s pretty much it as far as any positives go.

Andrew Mangiapane has been a massive disappointment thus far. Signed as a free agent in July, he was expected to come in play as a top-six winger, but he has struggled to be consistent even in a bottom-six role. He’s been somewhat better as of late, but overall, there has to be a much greater improvement.

Furthermore, Adam Henrique has a history of producing a strong goal differential (often higher than his xG%), but that has certainly not been the case this season, where he ranks dead last among Edmonton forwards in goal share. Part of that is likely just bad puck luck (his PDO is quite low), but at age 35, there is a good chance that this may simply be regression. He has primarily played as Edmonton’s third-line centre, but he clearly needs a more reduced role.

And finally, perhaps the biggest disappointment of this season is Trent Frederic, who has had an atrocious start to just the first of his eight-year contract signed this past summer. He has an abysmal 32 percent goal share, and his expected goal share remains at an ugly 43 percent. Production-wise, he has just 3 points in 36 games.

The bottom-six with Frederic has a 39 percent expected goal share. Without Frederic on-ice, the bottom-six is at 49 percent. Still not amazing, but that is obviously a significant improvement. Simply put, Frederic is an on-ice liability right now and the Oilers’ bottom-six would immediately see addition by subtraction by healthy scratching him.

Give Quinn Hutson and (eventually) Isaac Howard a greater chance

I think the Oilers’ bottom-six would benefit quite a lot from playing younger and skilled players more minutes, and it is why they should be increasing Quinn Hutson’s minutes and (eventually) giving Isaac Howard a better chance in the NHL.

Hutson had 16 goals in 24 AHL games with the Bakersfield Condors, and was recently called up by the Oilers. He scored his first NHL goal on Thursday against the Boston Bruins. However, he has averaged just 7 minutes in the three games he has played thus far. Obviously, a limited sample, but I do hope it’s not a sign of things to come. With the state of the current bottom-six, I don’t see at all how it would hurt to play Hutson ~11-12+ minutes on the third-line.

As for Howard, he started the season in the NHL, but although he showed some offensive flashes, his all-around game was largely unrefined and he was sent down to the Bakersfield Condors. He has had strong success with the Condors thus far, with 6 goals and 16 points in 13 games.

While it is likely best for Howard to remain in Bakersfield for the foreseeable future, playing big minutes on the Condors’ top-line and top PP unit, I do think the Oilers should strongly consider recalling him later on in the season and for the playoffs. This is a player with a lot of upside, and I think the Oilers could greatly benefit from his speed and release.

Consider moving RNH to 3C

While the Oilers’ roster is far from perfect, I do believe they have strong winger depth overall, enough to make deploying Ryan Nugent-Hopkins at third-line centre a viable option. For what it’s worth, he had some pretty strong metrics in limited minutes at 3C in 2024-25 next to Vasily Podkolzin and Viktor Arvidsson. I do think there is potential here.

Moving forward, I think it should be obvious that the second-line should consist of Draisaitl, Podkolzin, and Savoie. That trio has been excellent. RNH has been playing on the top-line next to McDavid and Hyman, but I think Roslovic – McDavid – Hyman can be a perfectly solid top-line, especially considering Roslovic’s excellent scoring to begin the season.

That allows RNH to play as 3C, and he has a variety of winger options, most notably Mangiapane. I would expect Mangiapane to have much more success next to RNH as a 3C rather than Henrique. As for the third wheel, I would strongly consider Quinn Hutson, and perhaps eventually Isaac Howard in that role. At the very least, Mangiapane – RNH – Hutson is a third-line that should be a lot better than what they have right now.

Simply return to full health

In all fairness, it is likely that injuries have hurt the Oilers’ forward lineup this season, overall. Zach Hyman missed the entire start of the season, Jack Roslovic has been injured since mid-November, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins missed time too. This has caused players to play above their level, likely hurting the bottom-six.

With Roslovic’s return, it should push more players down the lineup, and the Oilers’ forward core as a whole has improved since Hyman and RNH’s return.

All-in-all, the Oilers’ bottom-six has had a terrible start, but there certainly are ways to improve it. We’ll see what Kris Knoblauch and the coaching staff eventually do.

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