We are onto the fourth part of my offseason kickoff series here at Oilersnation, where I look at the five storylines that will define this summer for the Edmonton Oilers.

The earlier parts were more foundational questions about the coaching staff, the team’s ability to create cap space, and their philosophy on getting younger.

Today, I’m zeroing in on the team’s pending UFAs.

It’s an interesting group because the three biggest names on the list all performed very well for this team down the stretch, and none of them will break the bank, but at the same time, none of them appear to be locks to return to the organization.

So how will Bowman handle this puzzle? Let’s dig in.

CONNOR INGRAM

The 29-year-old Ingram resurrected his NHL career with the Oilers. In 32 games, he posted an .899 SV%, which was above the league average of .896.

He wasn’t his best in the playoffs, but that could have been a byproduct of the team having to overplay him down the stretch.

Ingram is a part of a relatively weak free agent class for goaltenders.

If the Oilers choose to let him walk, they could opt for a veteran like Sergei Bobrovsky or Freddie Andersen, but they both come with some serious risk considering their ages, poor regular-season play, and, in the case of Andersen, injury history.

The other names on the market are Stuart Skinner, Cam Talbot, Laurent Brossoit, Petr Mrazek, Vitek Vanecek, and Daniil Tarasov.

Not exactly a great crop.

The Oilers should be looking to bring back Ingram, but Tristan Jarry’s contract is going to be near impossible to move, so if they’re looking to bring in a bigger name for next season, it might not be possible to have Ingram return.

Chance of returning: 55 per cent

I think it really is a coin flip, and honestly, I think the Oilers should be exploring trading Jarry at 50% retained and then bringing back Ingram with the savings. Yes, the market is weak, but there also aren’t a lot of spots open on NHL rosters.

Ingram should cost less than $3 million per season, and that could be a really nice value deal for the Oilers if he’s paired with the right partner.

JASON DICKINSON

I thought Dickinson was a perfect fit for the Oilers after coming over from the Blackhawks at the trade deadline.

He understood his role, excelled on the defensive side of the puck, and found a way to chip in offensively during the first-round series against the Ducks.

They should absolutely be looking to bring him back, but my concern is that he may have priced himself out of the Oilers’ range.

34-year-old Charlie Coyle just signed a six-year, $6m extension with the Columbus Blue Jackets and now, the best remaining centreman on the market is Evgeni Malkin, who is likely going to return to Pittsburgh.

If that happens, the best remaining true centremen on the market are Boone Jenner, Scott Laughton and Dickinson.

That just shows how weak this free agent class is. That, combined with the fact that the cap is going up and a bunch of teams aren’t even at the floor yet, will lead to some pretty bad contracts being handed out.

There is a world where a rebuilding team offers Dickinson more than $4 million per year, and considering the other holes the Oilers have to fill on their roster, I don’t think they can afford to go that high for Dickinson.

Chance of returning: 35 percent

If Dickinson wants to return and try to win a Stanley Cup with the Oilers, then he’ll need to leave some money on the table. He’s made $23m in his career, so it’s possible that he’d be willing to do that but I think he’ll get more money and sign with an up-and-coming team that can offer him the chance to play in the postseason while still giving him a bigger payday.

CONNOR MURPHY

Much like Dickinson, I thought Murphy was a great fit for the Oilers. He was a solid, physical second-pairing defenseman whom Kris Knoblauch trusted to take on tough matchups. He was also a good penalty killer, even though their PK was abysmal in the postseason.

Unlike Dickinson, Murphy has made quite a bit of money in his career, just over $40 million in fact. He also never really got to experience true playoff hockey until this season.

He is the exact type of defenceman that the Oilers should be looking to slot behind Evan Bouchard on the right side of their blueline, and at 33 years old, I think a four-year contract is a pretty smart bet to make.

Chance of returning: 65 per cent

While a young team could come calling with a bigger payday, I think the Oilers can offer Murphy enough money to make it worth his while to stay. He was also pretty vocal about loving being able to experience playoff hockey in a big market.

Would a 4×4 contract get it done? I think that would be a win for the Oilers, who could slot him next to a healthy Jake Walman and hopefully have a rock-solid second pairing next season.

THE OTHER FORWARDS

This group is headlined by Kasperi Kapanen and Jack Roslovic. One player had a much better regular season, while the other stepped up big in the playoffs.

I think Roslovic’s 21-goal campaign has likely priced him out of the Oilers’ range. He also misplayed the market last summer, which is the whole reason why the Oilers were able to get him for just $1.5 million this season.

I think Roslovic will go to the highest bidder, and I think a team looking for offence will pay him north of $4.5m per season.

As for Kapanen, I think the chances of him returning are much higher.

He found success in different spots in the Oilers lineup, but showed in the playoffs that he’s more than capable of keeping up with in the top-six for stretches. He was banged up throughout the regular season, which could lead to his market being softer than Roslovic’s.

All it takes is one team to step up and give him a big offer, and everything changes, but if the Oilers can get Kapanen for under $2.5m a season, they should.

If a team comes calling and offers the soon-to-be 30-year-old anything north of $3m, then unfortunately, I think the Oilers will have to walk away, despite the fact that I like the player.

Chance of returning: Kapanen 60 per cent, Roslovic five per cent

This is just the reality of where the Oilers are at.

I would really like to see all four, Dickinson, Kapanen, Murphy, and Ingram, return, but if the Oilers do that, they might not have any money left over to do anything else, like upgrade the top-six.

Like I wrote earlier in this series, if they get out of a bad contract, then the equation changes, but as of right now, it’s hard to imagine all four of those players returning.

I think they should value Murphy and Ingram ahead of the two forwards, since I also believe they should be looking to find upgrades on the trade market in that area, but I guess time will tell.

This free agency could be pretty wild, and not for good reasons. I think there will be some serious sticker shock when it comes to some of these contracts that have been handed out. If that happens, then the Oilers will likely have to sit on the sidelines and watch some quality players head to new teams.

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CONNOR INGRAM

JASON DICKINSON

CONNOR MURPHY

THE OTHER FORWARDS

Other questions defining the Oilers off-season

Recent articles from Tyler Yaremchuk

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