After struggling out of the gate with countless turnovers, blown defensive coverage, and a lack of production, Evan Bouchard has flipped the script in November. He caught fire over the past month, driving offence and cutting down on mistakes.

The turnaround didn’t come under easy conditions, either. Edmonton just slogged through a gruelling seven-game road trip condensed into 11 days. With minimal practice time and maximum fatigue, Bouchard elevated his game. He started the season without a single point in his first six games and finished October a minus-9 through 12 games. In November, he flipped the script — registering 11 points in 12 games with a plus-9 rating. The team’s splits with and without Bouchard on the ice paint a pretty crazy picture of what’s transpired over the last few weeks.

This is about as lop-sided as with/without splits are going to get. At 5-on-5, the Oilers are plus-8 in Bouchard’s minutes this month, and minus-21 when he’s on the bench — a 29-goal swing. To put his recent offensive play driving into perspective, 3.3 xG/60 would rank first among NHL teams this season, but 2.2, the rate the Oilers have without him this month, would rank 31st.

Some of the top pair’s bad luck from the first month of the season is regressing to the mean, and their dominant results are returning. Through the first 12 games, the Oilers were generating 53.5% of the expected goals, but only 31.3% of the actual goals with Bouchard on the ice. His on-ice shooting percentage of 4.3% was never sustainable, especially considering he frequently plays with the most talented forwards on the team. Additionally, the goalies only mustered an .871 save percentage (SV%) in that time.

Poor finishing and goaltending made Bouchard’s game appear more disastrous than it really was — but there were legitimate issues he needed to clean up. For example, in October, Ekholm and Bouchard combined for 10.8 giveaways per 60 minutes, which dropped to 6.8 in November.

The back-breaking mistakes that were happening so frequently in the first few weeks for the Oilers’ top pair have decreased. Edmonton’s SV% is up to .915 in Bouchard’s minutes in November; some of that is luck regressing to normal, but it’s also a result of fewer odd-man rushes and Grade-A chances for the goalies to deal with.

Bouchard always bounces back

Tough stretches, as we saw early on this season for Bouchard, filled with goofy errors and disastrous giveaways, are going to happen with this player. He’s a defenceman who possesses the puck a lot and likes to use his high-level anticipation to make plays. When the team is out of sync and when his reads are off, he’s going to make mistakes. He doesn’t possess elite explosiveness like some of his counterparts, such as Cale Makar or Quinn Hughes, which helps them recover from these errors. Admittedly, the result can look ugly at times.

Still, the data consistently proves that poor performances are the exception, not the norm. Bouchard’s mistakes are loud, and they stick in fans’ memories far more than the dozens of quiet plays he makes that drive play. Most nights, he’s one of the most impactful players on the ice, whether it be on the scoresheet, fuelling the transition game, or even on the penalty kill. Over the course of the season, there will be far more good nights than bad.

Bouchard will always be a polarizing player as long as he’s committing the occasional huge blunder. We’ve seen the good, the bad, and the ugly from him this season, but it’s important to remember the fantastic stretches the next time he hits a slump. He is essential to the team’s success, so be patient. He always bounces back.

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