After dropping both games against the Capitals and Lightning despite showing way more life than they did in Buffalo, the Oilers roll into Sunrise for their final stop on this marathon seven-game road trip. This will be the first meeting with the Florida Panthers since they won their second straight Stanley Cup in Game 6, which feels like a painful reminder of everything the Oilers wanted to be and absolutely were not. Florida had a slow start to the season but is picking it up of late, while Edmonton is still trying to remember which end of the stick to hold. Either way, tonight feels like a measuring stick game that could either be a spark or a shovel, depending on which version of the Oilers shows up.

Does anyone else feel like we have been watching the same movie all season? I tried to compare the situation to Groundhog Day a few days ago, but Bill Murray eventually learned something in that movie to get out of the loop. The Oilers just keep making the same mistakes and getting the same results. Slow starts, bad puck decisions, defensive giveaways wrapped with a bow, and goaltending that is hovering around the .876 mark at even strength. The results look the same every night, and Edmonton’s sad spot in the standings reflects it. As we are talking now, the boys sit at 9-9-5 with 68 goals for and 84 against, which is as ugly a goal differential as I can remember for a team with this much talent. Florida, meanwhile, is not rocking that much better of a record at 11-8-1, but their defensive numbers are much cleaner.

If there is a silver lining, even though none of us have time for those anymore, it is that Edmonton actually looked competitive over the last two nights. They pushed Washington with a comeback attempt that fell just short. They controlled a lot of the game against Tampa Bay, but ran out of gas as the game wore on. Two losses, yes, but the important part is that they played with pace and emotion, and for the first time in weeks, they looked like they actually cared. Unfortunately, caring does not change the fact that the Panthers control play better at five on five with a 53.32 percent expected goals share compared to Edmonton’s paltry 47.94, but I am hopeful the signs shown over the last two games can stick around a little bit. I know I’m biased, but I still think the Oilers have so much more to offer at both ends of the rink.

What makes this matchup tricky is that the Panthers have historically given the Oilers all kinds of trouble, and not just in the Stanley Cup Final. Last season, the boys lost both meetings by a combined score of 10-8, and even though both games were one-goal finishes, the sad truth is that our side lost both contests in regulation. Once again, good efforts do not pay the mortgage unless you get to hang two points on the board. This year, Florida is stingy once again, as physical as ever, and opportunistic despite the run of injuries to key players like Sasha Barkov and Matthew Tkachuk. They average 28.3 shots per game while allowing only 25.1, which pairs horribly with an Edmonton team that bleeds quality and spends too much time chasing after its own mistakes. If they can keep it simple, I like the Oilers’ chances. If they try to do too much, they will get burned again.

But here is the part where I get back on the Kool-Aid. The boys have shown signs of the team we hoped they would be in each of the last two games. I know we are talking about losses, and I just wrote 100 words about no more silver linings, but if Hope Will Never Die, then I am going to focus on the bright sides. The power play is still ripping at 29.8 percent. The penalty kill is hanging on at 82.8. As we saw in the first period against the Lightning, when the Oilers skate, hit, and play with some jam, they can look like a threat against anyone. Florida will not give you anything for free, but if Edmonton can kick off this game the way they started in Tampa and carry it through more than twenty minutes, a dance with the defending champs could be precisely what the doctor ordered.

As much as I hate repeating myself every time I write one of these, tonight’s game presents a real chance to prove that the Oilers can get themselves fired up to play even if they have been on the road for what seems like two months. They can’t be easing into it, and I do not want to see them waiting until they are down two goals before stepping on the gas. Winning in this league is hard enough without shooting yourself in the foot, and our beloved Oilers have a PHD in self-sabotage. If the boys want to get on the plane back home with something to feel good about, they are going to have to earn every inch of ice against a Panthers team that knows exactly how to win. It is on our side to show up, and we are only a few hours away from finding out what they do with the opportunity.

Let’s see what the numbers say…

THE NUMBERS

	OILERS	PANTHERS
RECORD	9-9-5	11-8-1
WIN/LOSS STREAK	L3	W2
LAST 10 GAMES	3-5-2	6-3-1
GOALS FOR	68	59
GOALS AGAINST	84	59
POWER PLAY%	29.8	20.8
PENALTY KILL%	82.8	78.9
GOALS FOR/GAME	2.96	2.90
GOALS AGAINST/GAME	3.57	2.90
AVG. SHOTS/FOR	28.3	28.3
AVG. SHOTS/AGAINST	26.0	25.1
TEAM SAVE%	.876	.907
CORSI FOR%	50.44	52.64
PDO	0.955	0.995
TEAM SHOOTING%	7.98	8.79
EXPECTED GOALS FOR%	47.94	53.32

Numbers courtesy of Natural Stat Trick (Sv%, CF%, PDO, Shooting%, xGF% all at 5×5)

Saturday marks the first of two meetings with the Panthers this season, with the second coming on March 19th back at Rogers Place. As I mentioned above, the Panthers won both matchups last season, with the first a 6-5 home win in December, followed by a 4-3 win at Rogers Place to sweep the season series.
Edmonton’s 3.57 goals against per game ranks 32nd in the league. Yes, that’s last place. Not great. Florida, meanwhile, has conceded 58 total goals to rank 12th in the NHL.
The Panthers are 8-2-1 this season at home compared to 3-6-0 on the road. The Oilers have been rough on the road so far, sporting a 4-8-3 record away from Rogers Place.

LINEUPS…

Oilers

Savoie – McDavid – Roslovic
Podkolzin – Draisaitl – Mangiapane
Frederic – Henrique – Hyman
Clattenburg – Tomášek – Janmark
Ekholm – Bouchard
Nurse – Regula
Kulak – Emberson
Skinner

Panthers

Samoskevich – Lundell – Marchand
Boqvist – Rodrigues – Reinhart
Verhaeghe – Bennett – Greer
Gregor – Kunin – Devine
Forsling – Ekblad
Mikkola – Jones
Balinskis – Petry
Bobrovsky

According to Daily Faceoff, the Panthers are without Matt Tkachuk, Alex Barkov, Dmitry Kulikov, Tomas Nosek, Jonah Gadjovich, Eetu Luostarinen, and Cole Schwindt. If there’s not an opportunity for the Oilers to get some business done against a team they should get fired up to play, then I don’t know what is. That said, the Oilers also duffed the same opportunity against the last-place-in-the-East Buffalo Sabres, so injuries don’t always mean anything, but I am still hopeful that they’ve learned a lesson.

TONIGHT…

GDB Photoshop Edmonton Oilers Zach Hyman | by Tom Kostiuk

Game Day Prediction: Oilers close out the road trip on a high note, securing a 3-2 win in Sunrise.

Obvious Game Day Prediction: We’re getting at least one fight. Check out HockeyFights.com when it happens to rewatch and to vote on the winner.

Not-So-Obvious Game Day Prediction: You wouldn’t have seen Trent Frederic scoring in consecutive games until I gave you the heads up that it was coming. You’ll thank me later.

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