After a chaotic, penalty-filled, and wildly entertaining 6-5 win back on October 23rd, the Edmonton Oilers get another crack at the Montreal Canadiens, this time with a little more confidence and a lot less panic in the air. That first meeting had everything: Blown leads, three-goal swings in a matter of minutes, angry Montreal fans, and enough power play drama to fuel Habs Twitter for weeks. I’d imagine Habs fans haven’t forgotten how salty they all were after that loss, and that may set the tone for what could be a very fun night at the Bell Centre.

Both teams come into tonight’s matchup in the second half of a back-to-back, and it will be interesting to see which side can find its legs the fastest. The Oilers are coming off a 6-3 win in Toronto on Saturday night, while the Canadiens dropped a 5-4 overtime decision to the Rangers after letting the game slip away late. While both teams may take a minute to lock in, the Oilers arrive in Montreal having won four of their last five games, and for the first time in a while, those wins felt like the expected result and not a gift from the Gords.

That’s not to say everything is perfect. The Oilers are still giving up more goals than they’d like, still flirting with danger more often than we’d prefer, and still living with costly turnovers that put opponents in magical positions to score. But the difference lately is that when things wobble, they don’t immediately fall apart. They respond. They push back. They find another gear instead of another excuse. We saw that last night in Toronto when they took a 2-1 lead. Rather than fold, the Oilers found a way to fight their way back with five unanswered goals. I don’t know that we would have seen a flood of offence like that earlier in the year.

Looking at the numbers, the Oilers and Habs aren’t exactly worlds apart, and winning tonight will come down to execution. Edmonton comes in with a 15-11-6 record, Montreal sits at 14-11-5, and both clubs have spent most of the season hovering around the same slots in the standings. Where the Oilers separate themselves is in how they’re driving play over the last few weeks. Edmonton is generating more offence, firing more pucks on net, and holding a slight edge in both Corsi and expected goals at even strength. Montreal has been competitive, they have plenty of young exciting players, but they’ve needed a little more help from their goaltending to keep games close.

Then there’s the special teams, which always feels like the difference maker that favours the Oilers. Edmonton’s power play continues to operate at a borderline absurd 31.3 percent, and if this game turns into anything resembling the whistle-fest we saw in October, that advantage becomes massive. Montreal’s power play has been solid enough, but Edmonton’s ability to flip games in a hurry with the man advantage is still the most dangerous weapon on the ice. Add in a stronger penalty kill, and it’s not hard to see where the Oilers would like to tilt this matchup. Here’s hoping the Habs FAFO again.

More than anything, though, this game feels like a chance to keep stacking good nights on top of each other. The Oilers aren’t chasing a miracle anymore. They’re chasing consistency. Wins like last night’s beatdown in Toronto matter because they show the boys can handle their business without everything needing to be perfect. Do that again in Montreal, against a scrappy team that will surely be fired up to play, and suddenly this road trip starts to feel like an opportunity instead of something we need to survive.

The Canadiens will push. The crowd will be loud. The back-to-back games will test everyone’s legs. But if the Oilers bring the same patience, structure, and quiet confidence they’ve shown over the last couple of weeks, there’s no reason they can’t finally pick up their first three-game winning streak of the season. This is the kind of spot where momentum either sticks or slips away. The Oilers have given themselves a chance to build something over the last couple of weeks, and Sunday night feels like the moment to see if it’s more than just a nice stretch on the schedule.

Let’s see what the numbers say…

THE NUMBERS

	OILERS	HABS
RECORD	15-11-6	14-11-5
WIN/LOSS STREAK	W2	L1
LAST 10 GAMES	6-2-2	5-4-1
GOALS FOR	109	101
GOALS AGAINST	110	112
POWER PLAY%	31.3	25.3
PENALTY KILL%	80.5	76.0
GOALS FOR/GAME	3.41	3.19
GOALS AGAINST/GAME	3.38	3.55
AVG. SHOTS/FOR	28.8	25.2
AVG. SHOTS/AGAINST	26.6	27.6
TEAM SAVE%	.883	.887
CORSI FOR%	50.46	47.73
PDO	0.977	0.992
TEAM SHOOTING%	9.38	10.54
EXPECTED GOALS FOR%	49.46	48.29

Numbers courtesy of Natural Stat Trick (Sv%, CF%, PDO, Shooting%, xGF% all at 5×5)

Sunday’s game marks the second of two meetings this season between the Oilers and Habs, with Edmonton taking the first round 6-5 back in October. Edmonton has won four of their last five games versus the Canadiens dating back to the 2023-24 season.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins leads all active Oilers in career games played against Montreal (31), while Connor McDavid leads all active players in career points (37).
Leon Draisaitl is sitting at 999 career points going into his 823rd NHL game. Think he gets it? I do too.
We’re counting down to Ryan Nugent-Hopkins’ 1000th game! Tonight marks game 983 for the longest-serving Oiler.

LINEUPS…

Oilers

Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid – Hyman
Podkolzin – Draisaitl – Savoie
Frederic – Henrique – Janmark
Mangiapane – Lazar – Tomasek

Ekholm – Bouchard
Nurse – Regula
Stastney – Emberson

Pickard

With the Oilers playing last night in Toronto, we likely won’t get any concrete line combos until closer to puck drop, so I’ve set yesterday’s lines as the placeholder. I would imagine Calvin Pickard will get the crease for his ninth start and 11th appearance of the season.

Canadiens

Caufield – Suzuki – Bolduc
Slafkovsky – Kapanen – Demidov
Anderson – Beck – Texier
Evans – Veleno – Gallagher

Matheson – Carrier
Hutson – Dobson
Xhekaj – Engstrom

Montembeault

Montreal’s lineup is still very much a “pick your poison” situation up top, starting with Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield. Suzuki just keeps chugging along and putting up points, while Caufield remains the guy you circle in red ink because one clean look is usually all he needs. On the back end, Lane Hutson has been an absolute menace in the best way, jumping into the rush and moving the puck like he’s been doing this for a decade. After that, the Habs have a whole lot of hustle, some youthful chaos, and just enough scoring depth to hurt you if you stop paying attention.

TONIGHT…

GDB Zach Hyman Edmonton Oilers Photoshop | by Tom Kostiuk

Game Day Prediction: The Habs score the first goal, but the Oilers take control from there, extending their win streak with a 4-1 finish.

Obvious Game Day Prediction: Connor McDavid multi-point night? Yeah, it’s happening again. McDavid has currently produced 21 points in his last 11 games, and I don’t think Montreal will be the team to stop him.

Not-So-Obvious Game Day Prediction: Spencer Stastney had four shots on goal against Toronto. Tonight, he scores his first goal as an Oiler.