The Edmonton Oilers and Vegas Golden Knights are squaring off for the first time this season, and with the Pacific Division standings being as tight as they are, it’s never too early to label tonight’s game as a crucial game with four-point potential. And with Connor Ingram getting his first start as an Oiler, all eyes will be on Rogers Place for what should be an entertaining divisional matchup.

The last time the Oilers and Golden Knights saw each other was in the handshake line at the end of the second round in the playoffs. Our boys walked through Vegas in that series, and had it not been for some costly errors in Game 3, Edmonton would have swept the series. If we’re being honest, it was a demolition. The result was a gentleman’s sweep, but the spirit of the series leaned heavily in Edmonton’s favour. Bringing it back to Sunday’s game, you’d have to think there are a bunch of Golden Knights players who had this first meeting of the season circled on their calendars. It’s easy to imagine them coming into this one with a bit of a chip on their shoulders.

From an Oilers perspective, today’s game presents an opportunity to get back on the right foot after losing a tough one in Minnesota on Saturday. Edmonton’s tough start left them down two goals by the midway point of the opening period, and while they did tie things up temporarily, that was as close as they came to winning. Once again, it was turnovers and poor reads that led to Edmonton’s demise, and they’ll need to execute much better today to avoid a losing streak. The good news is that the Oilers have responded much better after losses lately, and we’ll have to hope the trend continues against Vegas.

With both the Oilers and Golden Knights playing yesterday — and losing — today’s contest could end up going to the team who can get their legs under them the quickest. Considering that both sides played and then had to travel into Edmonton, fatigue could be a factor in the early going. While Vegas only flew in from Calgary, they were in the late slot on Hockey Night in Canada on Saturday, and I’m hopeful that getting into their hotels past midnight while the Oilers were already tucked away in their beds can be an advantage for Edmonton. I know back-to-backs haven’t worked out for us so far — Edmonton has only one win in 10 back-to-back situations — but if ever the Oilers were turn things around, there’s no better time than against a divisional rival.

Where things get interesting is when you dig into how these two teams actually stack up right now. On the surface, they’re about as close as the two-point gap in the standings suggests. Both clubs have six wins in their last 10 games, both are coming off losses, and both are trying to avoid letting one bad weekend snowball into something bigger. Edmonton has the edge offensively, averaging 3.36 goals per game compared to Vegas’ 3.03, and the power play remains a weapon at 32.3% that can tilt a game in a hurry if penalties start stacking up. If the Oilers are going to make tonight uncomfortable for Vegas, that’s the lever. Draw penalties, move the puck quickly, and make the Golden Knights chase.

The flip side, of course, is where the Golden Knights have the edge. Vegas is giving up fewer goals per game and carries a team save percentage north of .900 at 5v5, which is a big reason they’ve been able to stay steady even when things aren’t clicking offensively. At five-on-five, the underlying numbers favour Vegas slightly, with a slight edge in both Corsi and expected goals, but it’s not some massive gap. These are two teams that live in the same spreadsheet neighbourhood, which usually means execution and special teams end up deciding things.

That brings us back to Connor Ingram. With Tristan Jarry sidelined for who knows how long, this is Ingram’s moment to show what he can bring to the table. He doesn’t need to be perfect to give the Oilers a chance. He just needs to be steady. Vegas doesn’t necessarily overwhelm teams with shot volume, but they’re opportunistic, and Edmonton can’t afford the kind of early mistakes that put them behind the eight ball in Minnesota. If Ingram can make the saves he should and can work through the likely nerves he’ll have leading up to puck drop, the Oilers should be in a good spot to win after 60 minutes.

At the end of the day, this one feels like a big game even though we have yet to reach the midway point of the season. Win tonight, and suddenly the narrative shifts back to how the Oilers keep climbing back up the Pacific Standings. Lose, and the questions around what’s happening in net and with the roster start to pop up again. The good news is that Edmonton has been in this situation many times before, and lately, they’ve responded well when their backs are against the wall. If they can clean up the details, let the power play do its thing, and get a solid performance from Ingram, there’s no reason this can’t be a night where Rogers Place reminds Vegas exactly how uncomfortable it can be to play here.

Let’s see what the numbers say…

Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid – Hyman
Podkolzin – Draisaitl – Roslovic
Mangiapane – Henrique – Savoie
Jones – Janmark – Frederic

Ekholm – Bouchard
Nurse – Stastney
Stillman – Emberson

Ingram

Not sure what the line combos will look like for Edmonton because of the back-to-back, but you’d have to imagine at least a player or two will get moved around. We know Jack Roslovic is back in the lineup and that Quinn Hutson was re-assigned to Bakersfield, but what else are we getting? Will David Tomasek draw back in, as an example? The big note, of course, is that Connor Ingram is expected to make his Oilers debut, and all eyes will be on the crease as we try to figure out what we have in him.

Marner – Barbashev – Bowman
Smith – Howden – Stone
Saad – Hertl – Dorofeyev
Reinhardt – Sissons – Kolesar

McNabb – Korczak
Hanifin – Whitecloud
Hutton – Lauzon

Hart

The Golden Knights got lit up in Calgary last night, and you’d have to think that will have them hitting the sheet with a little more jump in their step. Playing pissed off can be a great motivator, and losing to a team as bad as the Flames (I know they’re getting better) can certainly get you there. But as you can see from last night’s line combinations, Vegas is dealing with injuries to key players, and I’m hopeful the Oilers can take advantage. The other note is that Carter Hart is expected to get the start, and it will be interesting to see what the noise around him is like, if there is any at all.

Game Day Prediction: The Oilers bounce back from their Saturday loss, handling Vegas to the tune of a 5-2 final.

Obvious Game Day Prediction: Connor McDavid continues his heater with yet another multi-point night.

Not-So-Obvious Game Day Prediction: Spencer Stastney sneaks a wrister through traffic and scores his first goal as an Oiler.