Tonight’s matchup between the Edmonton Oilers and Tampa Bay Lightning features four players who have combined for five 50-goal seasons and 16 seasons with 100 points. There should be no shortage of offensive opportunities.
Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Nikita Kucherov have won the last eight Art Ross Trophies. McDavid won in 2017 and 2018, Kucherov in 2019, Draisaitl in 2020, McDavid in 2021-2023 and Kucherov in 2024. The last game played with three players who won the previous eight Art Ross trophies was on January 25th, 1997, when Wayne Gretzky (NYR) played against Mario Lemieux and Jaromir Jagr (PIT). The Rangers won 7-4, and Gretzky had three assists, while Lemieux and Jagr were shutout. Those three won the Art Ross for 21 consecutive seasons between 1981-2001. Gretzky won it the first eight seasons from 1981 to 1987 then in 1990, 1991 and 1994. Lemieux won it in 1988, 1989, 1992, 1993, 1996 and 1997, and Jagr won it in 1995 and 1998 to 2001.
No one would be surprised if McDavid, Kucherov or Draisaitl won the scoring race this year.
McDavid and Kucherov are currently tied for seventh in NHL scoring with 37 points, five points back of Kirill Kaprizov and Martin Necas, while Draisaitl sits 11th with 36 points. Meanwhile, Draisaitl is tied for the goal scoring lead with 19 and Brayden Point is third with 18. Point (115) and Draisaitl (112) rank third and fourth in goals over the past two seasons and the start of this season, while McDavid leads in points with 322 followed by Kucherov at 294. Draisaitl is fourth with 270 and Point is 11th with 214.
Add in Zach Hyman, who scored 54 goals last season, and the potential for an offensive explosion between these two clubs is very high.

SNAPSHOTS…

— Both teams are 6-3-1 in their last 10 games. Tampa Bay has outscored teams 45-30 in those games while the Oilers have outscored their opponents 35-26.
— Both teams are killing it on special teams. The Oilers’ PP is 29.2% and their PK is 90.9% in those 10 games, while the Lightning’s PP is 37.9% and their PK is 84%. The Oilers’ combined special teams are 120.1% and Tampa’s is 121.9%. All four units are playing great, which should be a great test for each team’s PP and PK.
— Darnell Nurse has been dominant for the Oilers for over a month. Since November 1st, Nurse has been on the ice for two goals against 5×5.
He has the lowest goals against and the lowest xGA (via NST) among Oilers D-men. He’s averaging 18:29/game at 5×5 while Evan Bouchard and Mattias Ekholm play 18:39. The difference is who Nurse plays with.
Nurse has played six minutes with McDavid and Draisaitl, 29 minutes with McDavid and 94 with Draisaitl. In those 129 minutes the Oilers have outscored the opposition 4-0.
Evan Bouchard has played 61 minutes with McDavid and Draisaitl, 60 minutes with Draisaitl and 127 minutes with McDavid. The Oilers have been outscored 15-11 in that time.
Since November 1st, Nurse has outscored Elite competition 4-1, while Bouchard has been outscored 6-5 and Mattias Ekholm has been outscored 7-5. They have played 30 more minutes v. Elite in that span, as Nurse missed three games due to injury.
— Nurse is playing great while splitting time with Troy Stecher and Brett Kulak. Nurse has logged 116 minutes with Stecher and they’ve outscored opponents 4-2 while he’s skated 93 minutes with Kulak and they’ve outscored the opposition 3-0. Nurse has a 60xGF% with Stecher and 59.67% with Kulak. It doesn’t matter whom nurse is playing with — he’s been great, and when Nurse plays up to his capabilities like this, the Oilers are very difficult team to beat. He’s become the driver on his pairing.
— Another player who has been very good for the Oilers since November first is Ty Emberson. Emberson has logged the most minutes of any player on the PK (29:07) and he’s even on the PK, having been on for only one PP goal against and on for Nurse’s shorthanded goal. Emberson has only played 55 NHL games — to be tasked with first unit PK minutes and excelling in that area is damn impressive.
— Adam Henrique has also been very good since the start of November. In 200 minutes at 5×5 he’s outscored the opposition 10-3 and in 22 minutes on the PK he’s only been on for one goal against. He’s chipped in with eight points in 16 games — which is okay, but below his standards, especially with only one goal — but when you aren’t scoring you can’t give up much, and Henrique is doing exactly that. The most impressive stat is that in 65 minutes at 5×5 v. Elite competition, Henrique has outscored them 5-0 via PuckIQ.
The Oilers’ turnaround has a lot to do with McDavid and Draisaitl’s point production going up, but many others have played well, especially defensively.
— Point has 10 goals and 16 points Tampa’s last 10 games (he only played nine due to injury). He’s been great but so has Anthony Cirelli who has eight goals in 10 games. Cirelli took this hit in Vancouver on Sunday and didn’t return. He is doubtful for tonight and if he can’t play that’s a big blow.
— The Bolts also lost D-man Erik Cernak to injury in Vancouver. The Lightning recalled Steven Santini from the AHL as Cernak won’t play tonight. Cernak and Ryan McDonagh are the top D pair on the PK, and the Lightning second pair at 5×5. It will be interesting to see how they deploy their PK tonight without Cirelli and Cernak.

LINEUPS…

Oilers

RNH – McDavid – Hyman
Podkolzin – Draisaitl– Kapanen
J. Skinner – Henrique – Janmark
Brown – Ryan – Perry
Ekholm – Bouchard
Nurse – Stecher
Kulak – Emberson
Skinner
Stuart Skinner has posted a .930Sv% or higher in five of his last six starts. I argued Skinner wasn’t playing as poorly as his early numbers suggested. He had a few rough moments, no doubt, but I found some jumped off the cliff in their criticism of him. I don’t expect him to post .930Sv% every game moving forward either, but he wasn’t as bad as some suggested early. He’s still working on his game, and I think too many forget he still doesn’t have a lot of NHL experience, with only 136 NHL regular season starts, and the NHL is not easy. He’s been lucky in that he’s experienced a lot of high-pressure playoff situations and grown from it. Skinner doesn’t get nearly as rattled as some fans and analysts do about his play, and that is why I’m not surprised to see he’s steadied his game again.

Lightning

Guentzel – Point – Kucherov
Hagel – Paul – Atkinson
Gonclaves – Geekie – Chaffee
Girgensons – Glendening – Eyssimont
Hedman – Raddysh
McDonagh – Moser
Lilliberg – Perbix
Vasilevskiy
The Lightning have battled injuries for the past month. Point missed one game, Kucherov missed two, Cam Atkinson missed five and Nick Paul missed six, yet they still found ways to score 45 goals. The absence of Cirelli and Cernak aren’t ideal, but the Oilers will need to be ready to play, especially defensively.

MONTH OF GIVING…

Thanks to Doug and Tim for their great bids yesterday on the A-1 Heating package and the One-Hour Plumbing package.
DAY Seven: 🎁 The Brick Fan Package
You can bid via text between 2-6 p.m. on Sports 1440 by texting 833.401.1440 (can call same number) and include your name and donation amount. Money raised will support Santas Anonymous.

TONIGHT…

Corey Perry Photoshop
Photoshop: Tom Kostiuk from Handmade by Tom
GAME DAY PREDICTION: Fans are in for a treat with so much high-end skill on display. Oilers win a thrilling 4-3 game.
OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: McDavid and Kucherov each pick up two points.
NOT-SO-OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Henrique scores his second goal in 24 games and his 10th all time v. Tampa.

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